Srain Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 ENSO is becoming more of a neutral factor, but relative SSTAs still suck Meh. So we'll just have to deal with home grown quick spin ups and be spared from endless days of watching some phantom model porn long tracker that never develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 I agree with all three of those, Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 ENSO is becoming more of a neutral factor, but relative SSTAs still suck They are ok, especially W of 40W. SHAs still show that we are in a distinct +AMO/+TNA regime, there's a plus in OHC out there, surface SSTs were just negatively affected by the +NAO regime in winter and early spring. Since then it has been more of a neutral NAO one, and the time we got a brief -NAO period, a few weeks ago, SSTAs responded quickly. May will probably average ~0 in the TNA index, and 10 days from now we'll probably see very distinct +SSTAs in the MDR. Right now I would consider SSTAs as neutral with a positive outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Meh. So we'll just have to deal with home grown quick spin ups and be spared from endless days of watching some phantom model porn long tracker that never develops. Back when I still had dial-up, 2003, I'd download loops (which didn't happen very fast at 56k) of Isabel when it was way, way, way out at sea and beautiful. Even my then toddler son was fascinated. We'd stare together. Anyway, just a feeling of a near normal season. The quick spinners, well, all I can say, Edouard in 2008- the two models on it first, NAM and CMC. That was awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Also keep in mind that we have a descending easterly QBO, with overall strong easterly shear in the stratosphere along the equator. Coinciding with this shear is anomalous warm stratosphere off the equator (~10N/S) ... lowering the tropopause height and suppressing convection. This effect should weaken through the season as the easterlies weaken and the westerly QBO is already becoming apparent down to around 8mb. But something to consider for the first half at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Special TWO: http://www.nhc.noaa....ml/231822.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 12z Euro loves 94L today...bombs it off the SE Cost and heads back SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 12z Euro loves 94L today...bombs it off the SE Cost and heads back SW Just kinda lingers offshore before getting picked up by a cold front next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Just kinda lingers offshore before getting picked up by a cold front next week In the full run, but that is a stout system the Euro is depicting by 72 hours.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 In the full run, but that is a stout system the Euro is depicting by 72 hours.... Well, I mean, it's modeled stronger than Alberto, but it's still only 1004mb at peak in the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Well, I mean, it's modeled stronger than Alberto, but it's still only 1004mb at peak in the Euro. Yeah. For May standards, if the Euro is correct, having 2 named systems before the start of Hurricane system would be pretty amazing. Might just be a hiccup run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Special TWO: http://www.nhc.noaa....ml/231822.shtml Near 0% odds of development. Thank goodness NHC is on top of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ivanhater Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 However, the 12z UKMET does bring this into the Florida coast Uploaded with ImageShack.us Uploaded with ImageShack.us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Near 0% odds of development. Thank goodness NHC is on top of this. in the next 48 hrs, that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Near 0% odds of development. Thank goodness NHC is on top of this. Ugghh...the NHC is at it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 23, 2012 Author Share Posted May 23, 2012 Ugghh...the NHC is at it again. At what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Where's the barf emoticon? SHIPS has shear reaching 50+ knots in the next 24 hours. No wonder virtually all of the intensity models show this dissipating in a day or two. Might have to watch it once it's off of the SE coast if shear can relax a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Somehow...this horrible invest went down a millibar AL, 94, 2012052400, , BEST, 0, 210N, 826W, 30, 1007, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 180, 130, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Both the GFS and ECMWF are certainly on board for a subtropical/tropical event... looks substantially larger than Alberto as well. Should be fun to watch this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Supercane Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Both the GFS and ECMWF are certainly on board for a subtropical/tropical event... looks substantially larger than Alberto as well. Should be fun to watch this weekend! As are the UKMET and CMC. Also note that all these models bring this onshore the SE coast (between central FL and southern SC) in 4-5 days. The 00z global model suite is in tight agreement on both the track and intensity through that timeframe. Seems the biggest question revolves around the nature of the low (tropical? subtropical? un-nameworthy hybrid?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 LOL, another tropical disaster off the se coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 LOL, another "tropical" disaster off the se coast. fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 I guess this one is at least modeled to have some semblance of a modestly deep low level warm core. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 At what? Ask Ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 840 AM EDT THU MAY 24 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS WESTERN CUBA AND INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CURRENTLY THE SYSTEM LACKS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT... THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE FORMATION OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE BY LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. REGARDLESS OF ANY DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE BAHAMAS. ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...AND PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. && HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Excellent TWO by the NHC. Really covered a good deal of the situation. Most of the global models develop this by the weekend. Would really be something to have two pre-season storms in a season that is forecast to be "near average" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Excellent TWO by the NHC. Really covered a good deal of the situation. Most of the global models develop this by the weekend. Would really be something to have two pre-season storms in a season that is forecast to be "near average" Also thegreatdr had an informative discussion yesterday afternoon as well. Some forget to check out the HPC forecasts when talking about tropical/non tropical systems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Excellent TWO by the NHC. Really covered a good deal of the situation. Most of the global models develop this by the weekend. Would really be something to have two pre-season storms in a season that is forecast to be "near average" It will be interesting to see if this year has some other similarities to the 2007 season with the early STS Andrea and TS Barry. The hallmark of that season was many weak and short-lived systems punctuated by Dean and Felix. That was certainly one of the more unusual years in recent memory. http://weather.unisy...2007H/index.php http://www.weather.c...permalink_month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 Also thegreatdr had an informative discussion yesterday afternoon as well. Some forget to check out the HPC forecasts when talking about tropical/non tropical systems... That man even remembered 'Fay'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted May 24, 2012 Share Posted May 24, 2012 It will be interesting to see if this year has some other similarities to the 2007 season with the early STS Andrea and TS Barry. The hallmark of that season was many weak and short-lived systems punctuated by Dean and Felix. That was certainly one of the more unusual years in recent memory. http://weather.unisy...2007H/index.php http://www.weather.c...permalink_month I remember a lot of people freaking out towards the end of August 2007 that seasonal predictions were going to be an epic fail and that the biggest storm had already happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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