Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 45mph AL, 93, 2012051918, , BEST, 0, 323N, 776W, 40, 1007, LO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Unlike 92L the convection with this system is going on 12+ hours of persistence. This fact + the very impressive ASCAT pass strongly suggest we are looking at our first STS or TS of the season. Unless convection completely falls apart inthe next 6 hours, the NHC is probably ready to pull the trigger. Despite the sub 80 SSTs, the upper level environment is much colder than normal. It's the temperature gradient of the SST vs. the Upper level cirrus canopy of the storm that matter more than SSTs alone. Kudos to the HRRR which preformed excellently with the storm while the rest of the global guidence was out to lunch with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Convection has maintained this afternoon and is beginning to wrap around the SW/S semi circle. Shear remains near 20kts, but may relax enough to see Alberto form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 TAFB 2.0 and tropical AL 93 201205191745 DVTS 3210N 7780W SAB EG 1515 ///// T DT=2.5 BO CBND MET=1.5 PT=1.5 FTBO CONAL 93 201205191745 DVTS 3220N 7770W TAFB SS 2020 ///// T DT 2.0 BO CURVED BAND Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Renumber! TD or STS possible at 5pm: invest_RENUMBER_al932012_al012012.ren 19-May-2012 19:20 931 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Alberto it is: ALBERTO, AL, L, , , , , 01, 2012, DB, O, 2012051912, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL012012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Unlike 92L the convection with this system is going on 12+ hours of persistence. This fact + the very impressive ASCAT pass strongly suggest we are looking at our first STS or TS of the season. Unless convection completely falls apart inthe next 6 hours, the NHC is probably ready to pull the trigger. Despite the sub 80 SSTs, the upper level environment is much colder than normal. It's the temperature gradient of the SST vs. the Upper level cirrus canopy of the storm that matter more than SSTs alone. Kudos to the HRRR which preformed excellently with the storm while the rest of the global guidence was out to lunch with this system. That's a good point. People always think of tropical systems embedded in waters of 80+. Most of the time this is the case, but it can have warm core characteristics and behave like a TC with the conditions you just mentioned. Latent heat machines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Alberto discussion here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 There goes my chance of a perfect 9/9/9 Herman Cane season. Not that it ever had more than a 1/10,000 chance but I'd like to dream fo another few weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Is El Niño coming? I'm beginning to have doubts...May has seen the -PDO restrengthen, and the western ENSO regions cool Also, early in the month we had a -NAO period, which helped the TNA region warm a bit...and we are probably entering a stronger -NAO period for May's last week, with models showing a very weak and displaced Azores high, which if it turns out correct, would warm the (Atlantic) tropics significantly in just a few days. Back to ENSO, easterlies near the dateline continue unabated, though weaker in the forecasts, and the eastern regions will probably warm a bit. But no strong WWBs in sight...I'm currently giving mod-strong Niño less chances than a return to a Niña. Latest models still show a Niño for later this year, but I'm getting a little skeptic, and neutral is looking a more plausible scenario right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
carley5 Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 i agree. im sticking with 13/8/3. a very solid season with multiple US threats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Not sure what it is based on, but LC sees a potential Louisiana/Central Gulf threat early June from the Caribbean. But he gives equal chances, it would seem, to mega-hot ridge dominating entire Southern US Texas to Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Not sure what it is based on, but LC sees a potential Louisiana/Central Gulf threat early June from the Caribbean. But he gives equal chances, it would seem, to mega-hot ridge dominating entire Southern US Texas to Georgia. Probably the remnants soon-to-be Bud, which both the Euro and GFS are redeveloping in the BoC somehow (and probably merging with some pre-existing disturbance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 21, 2012 Share Posted May 21, 2012 Probably the remnants soon-to-be Bud, which both the Euro and GFS are redeveloping in the BoC somehow (and probably merging with some pre-existing disturbance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 Look what new and improved initialized 12Z GFS drags into Florida this weekend... From Caribbean, across Cuba, vacation in Bahamas, and maybe TD #2 rains out Saturday picnics PBI to MLB??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 ^^ Euro not on board (looks interesting Day 9, but that is so far away) and NWS HGX has words of wisdom. NOT BUYING GFS SOLUTION IN LONG RANGE OF LOOP-D-LOOPING SFC LOWRETURNING FROM THE ATLANTIC...PREFER ECMWF LIKE SOLUTION OF CONTINUING TROUGHING OUT THAT WAY. AS A WISE FCSTR ONCE SAID ABOUT THE LONG RANGE TROPICS...IF IT AINT IN THE ECMWF YET I AINT BELIEVING IT. GOOD WORDS GENERALLY. 04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted May 22, 2012 Share Posted May 22, 2012 ^^ Euro not on board (looks interesting Day 9, but that is so far away) and NWS HGX has words of wisdom. Not a big difference Euro shows an inverted troff GFS shows a 1010mb POS TS. Just details IMO, FL will either get rain or rain. However when the Euro shows nothing it means if a storm does form it has almost 0 potential of making it to hurricane stregnth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Jeez... Nother early invest. Don't expect too much from this one. BEGIN NHC_ATCF invest_al942012.invest FSTDA R U 040 010 0000 201205230017 NONE NOTIFY=ATRP END Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 94L AL, 94, 2012052300, , BEST, 0, 185N, 843W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 275, 130, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 23, 2012 Author Share Posted May 23, 2012 Wow-- weird that we're getting so much activity in both basins in May! 94L is in an OK location, climatologically speaking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Wow-- weird that we're getting so much activity in both basins in May! 94L is in an OK location, climatologically speaking... Yeah, it's in a nice spot, but it's getting absolutely nailed by 20-40 knots of shear last time I checked. If this was late June or July, we'd have a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Lets hope this doesn't dry up in June/July and beyond after starting quick... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 23, 2012 Author Share Posted May 23, 2012 Yeah, it's in a nice spot, but it's getting absolutely nailed by 20-40 knots of shear last time I checked. If this was late June or July, we'd have a different story. I've never seen a grimmer prognosis for an invest. SHIPS predicts 0 kt at 72 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 The HWRF is pretty bullish, shows a strong TS heading right for the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 23, 2012 Author Share Posted May 23, 2012 The HWRF is pretty bullish, shows a strong TS heading right for the Carolinas. Well... The HWRF tends to get bullish about everything-- so unless it shows a sub-930-mb cyclone, I don't pay it much mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Huge divergence between the different level steerings of the BAMs is usually a good indicator of hostile shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 The HWRF is pretty bullish, shows a strong TS heading right for the Carolinas. Ya don't say... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Unrelated to 94L. I am slightly more bullish on Hurricane Season, despite a Tweet from Joe Bastardi yesterday that he was more confident than ever in an abnormally low ACE season with few if any long trackers. New Euro long range would support that, but 1) takeway from ENSO thread, looks like the forecasts of a moderate to strongly warm ENSO was a little premature, and a weak to moderatel warm ENSO should be in place during August-September prime time. And Atlantic SST anomalies in MDR aren't freakishly cold. I saw someone on another thread saying he predicted 21 storms and 6 majors. Well, probably not. But I can see a slightly below to near normal season with a long tracker or two. Not claiming Jorge/Don Sutherland level expertise (I read the ENSO discussions and try to summarize in my own head what they are concluding, but I don't claim complete understanding) but I am a little more optimistic than some of the season cancel people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 I posted the following just now in the ENSO thread fwiw in case anyone is interested who doesn't read that thread much: I also think that what is occurring now bodes at least a little better for those who don't want a weak hurricane season as far as the MDR is concerned. I've found that there does seem to be a decent + and perhaps somewhat leading (say perhaps by a few weeks) correlation between the SOI and MDR activity. Although there are other factors to consider, the July and August SOI's will be important for the heart of the season MDRwise in my opinion based on history. If the current SOI trend is any indication, the chances are increasing that the July and August SOI's won't be solidly negative. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 23, 2012 Share Posted May 23, 2012 Unrelated to 94L. I am slightly more bullish on Hurricane Season, despite a Tweet from Joe Bastardi yesterday that he was more confident than ever in an abnormally low ACE season with few if any long trackers. New Euro long range would support that, but 1) takeway from ENSO thread, looks like the forecasts of a moderate to strongly warm ENSO was a little premature, and a weak to moderatel warm ENSO should be in place during August-September prime time. And Atlantic SST anomalies in MDR aren't freakishly cold. I saw someone on another thread saying he predicted 21 storms and 6 majors. Well, probably not. But I can see a slightly below to near normal season with a long tracker or two. Not claiming Jorge/Don Sutherland level expertise (I read the ENSO discussions and try to summarize in my own head what they are concluding, but I don't claim complete understanding) but I am a little more optimistic than some of the season cancel people. ENSO is becoming more of a neutral factor, but relative SSTAs still suck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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