Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Looks like something sub-tropical may be trying to get together. Looks like a circulation around 11kft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Whats that off the NC coast? I think it might still be somewhat attached to the front offshore, but latest Satellite and Radar are certainly intriguing. Fun to watch and has slowly gotta more organized, places in NE SC do not wanna see this thing retrograde back onshore after all the rain the got yesterday. Water temps are in the low 70's out there but the buoys out there are somewhat interesting.. http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=41013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Fun to watch and has slowly gotta more organized, places in NE SC do not wanna see this thing retrograde back onshore after all the rain the got yesterday. Water temps are in the low 70's out there but the buoys out there are somewhat interesting.. http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=41013 Indeed, winds are increasing too. Not seeing any major surface pressure falls yet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 HRRR is looking really interesting for this system into tomorrow. Nice outflow developing by 9-12z with a weak warm core signature at 700 hPa. This certainly bears watching, and I wouldn't be surprised if the NHC starts to raise an eyebrow by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 HRRR is looking really interesting for this system into tomorrow. You can add in the 4km NAM, NMM and ARW too...Although the NMM is probably too bullish. It will be interesting to watch how it further develops through the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Is this forecasted to move southwestard. Stationary or loop back up to the north. I will take pics if it hits me and comes on shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 So close to CHS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 We got a live one. NHC probably won't pull the trigger until the afternoon to make sure it isn't transient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 NHC with a special outlook on this area 20% hatch seems they are not too impressed....still nice to see something like this in May and in my backyard to boot. SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 815 AM EDT SAT MAY 19 2012 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA IS PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT INTERACTS WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES LITTLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Is this forecasted to move southwestard. Stationary or loop back up to the north. I will take pics if it hits me and comes on shore. This is from MHX NWS office for eastern NC in regards to this low from the overnight AFD .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/... AS OF 241 AM SAT...NAM CONTINUES TO DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW TONIGHT. UPPER PATTERN SUPPORTS A MORE OPEN...LESS DEEP LOW...SO WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD ENSEMBLES SOLUTION FOR TONIGHT. THIS BRINGS THE SURFACE LOW FURTHER NORTH AND RETROGRADES TOWARD THE COAST SLOWER THAN THE NAM. HOWEVER THIS ALLOWS MORE ENERGY OVER THE COASTAL SECTIONS FOR INCREASED CHANCES OF PRECIP ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT. ENSEMBLE BLEND OF TEMPERATURES HAS MID 50S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH MID 60S ALONG THE COAST. STILL DONT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF QPF AS MAJORITY OF PRECIP WILL FALL OVER THE WATERS. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 310 AM SATURDAY...MDLS SHOW SIMILAR TRENDS OF STACKED LOW PRESSURE DRIFTING W AND ONSHORE SUNDAY INTO MON...THEN SLOWLY LIFTING NE OF REGION TUE AS NEXT SRT WAVE APPROACHES. DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN ON POSITION OF SFC LOW AND QPF...HOWEVER GENERAL TRENDS WILL BE FOR INCREASING MOISTURE AND BETTER CVRG OF SHRA SUN INTO MON. INCREASED POPS TO HIGH CHC SUN AND INLAND MON...LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO BUMP THESE UP TO LIKELY IN AREAS IF MDLS COME INTO MORE AGREEMENT. AS MOISTURE INCREASES SUN AND MON WILL SEE SOME WEAK INSTAB DEVELOP SO ADDED MENTION OF TSRA ALL BUT DEEP INLAND AREAS SUNDAY AFTN AND ALL LOCATION MON. WILL CONT TO SEE SCT SHRA AND FEW TSRA INTO TUE AS INIT SYSTEM LIFTS SLOWLY NE AND NEXT ONE APPROACHES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Carolina low, also classified as Invest 93L AL, 93, 2012051912, , BEST, 0, 326N, 773W, 30, 1009, LO, 34 http://ftp.nhc.noaa....al932012.invest Looks impressive on visible and radar, for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Still no pressure drops at the surface in fact pressure is going up so gonna be a while if ever for this thing to go... http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 The overaggressive SHIPS brings 93L to 54 knots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Looking pretty dang good for something that just popped up over night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Very nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Still no pressure drops at the surface in fact pressure is going up so gonna be a while if ever for this thing to go... http://www.ndbc.noaa...p?station=41013 So you're telling me all those clouds are spiraling in for no reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 HPC has 93L at 1008mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Ship OBS NE of 93L shows 35knot winds, 1008mb pressure, and 72 degree DPT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Done talking to myself, but definitely not warm core as of this pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 1. SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURELOCATED ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE...AND IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD OR WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM... PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 There's been more then a few lightning strikes on the west side of the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 ASCAT Decent amount of 35-40 knot barbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 So where is it going? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 So where is it going? NHC says it will head generally south and west over the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 19, 2012 Author Share Posted May 19, 2012 Crazy that it's Mandarined-- I didn't think it had potential. Kind of cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Lots of lightning and some nice banding... Money's down for classification in the next 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 19, 2012 Author Share Posted May 19, 2012 That's crazy that it looks to have an eye feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 Might have more potential if it keeps drifting Southwest towards Florida... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted May 19, 2012 Share Posted May 19, 2012 It looks like a moderate to strong tropical storm, but this may be one of these cases where looks can be decieving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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