cyclonebuster Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 5:50 PM, Riptide said: Sigh, this thread is a trainwreck....it is only July 3rd, one should expect hostile conditions in the MDR and we know from past experience that atmospheric conditions in this area can change on a whim. We will have an entire month to formulate one storm, which would fulfill the monthly historical average. Perhaps some more homebrew in the future as well, who knows...? The post about insufficient SST's was total bs. I knew I was right at least 2C above the mean..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 5:54 PM, GaWx said: Adam, Also, I believe that there may be a partial positive correlation between El Nino and SAL frequency/concentration in the MDR. Have you researched this? I'm unaware of any research in this area, though I've noted the same thing anecdotally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 5:28 PM, am19psu said: And shear will increasingly be an issue as the Walker circulation is disrupted due to the developing Nino, plus relative SSTs still suck. It's true that SST's are not relatively warm because it is early July, but it's not worth mentioning because if you extrapolate it into the future; it would argue for a continuation of above average or average SST's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 5:58 PM, Riptide said: It's true that SST's are not relatively warm because it is early July, but it's not worth mentioning because if you extrapolate it into the future; it would argue for a continuation of above average or average SST's. Relative SSTs means the difference in the SSTAs in the subtropics and the tropics. When the subtropical SSTAs are warmer than the tropical SSTAs, it's bad for MDR cyclogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 6:00 PM, am19psu said: Relative SSTs means the difference in the SSTAs in the subtropics and the tropics. When the subtropical SSTAs are warmer than the tropical SSTAs, it's bad for MDR cyclogenesis. This is interesting but would a higher temperature anomaly be more easily achievable in the subtropics because it is farther away from the equator? It seems that temperatures in the tropics and subtropics are roughly the same temperature right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclonebuster Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 6:00 PM, am19psu said: Relative SSTs means the difference in the SSTAs in the subtropics and the tropics. When the subtropical SSTAs are warmer than the tropical SSTAs, it's bad for MDR cyclogenesis. For this time of year they smoking hot. I know because I have watched them for the past 20 years...................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 6:05 PM, cyclonebuster said: For this time of year they smoking hot. I know because I have watched them for the past 20 years...................... I'm aware that the absolute SSTAs in the MDR are warm. That is not the only part of the equation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 6:05 PM, cyclonebuster said: For this time of year they smoking hot. I know because I have watched them for the past 20 years...................... lol you obviously aren't reading his post...he said relative SSTs...the difference between the subtropics and the tropics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclonebuster Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 6:07 PM, am19psu said: I'm aware that the absolute SSTAs in the MDR are warm. That is not the only part of the equation. Correct and the shear is low right now,also. Warm SST's and low wind shear a recipe for disaster when talking hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 6:24 PM, cyclonebuster said: Correct and the shear is low right now,also. Warm SST's and low wind shear a recipe for disaster when talking hurricanes. Google up Zhao and relative SSTA. A 2009 study. If I knew how to hotlink or upload an image from a PDF, I would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 5:49 PM, cyclonebuster said: I don't see much Sahara dust either. Clearly you are not looking very closely. Dust covers the MDR from the W Coast of Africa to the Caribbean... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 6:26 PM, Srain said: Clearly you are not looking very closely. Dust covers the MDR from the W Coast of Africa to the Caribbean... I uploaded the CIMSS SAL analysis previous page, and he has two red taggers trying to talk him off of imminent disaster from low shear and sufficient SST... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclonebuster Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 6:08 PM, OSUmetstud said: lol you obviously aren't reading his post...he said relative SSTs...the difference between the subtropics and the tropics. I am talking ITCZ......... From Africa to the West Indies........ Lat. 8N to 15N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 And to Steve's point elsewhere, this doesn't mean that tropical activity as a whole is going to be nil. It'll just be closer to home, in the Caribbean, Gulf, or SW Atlantic. But the MDR is not going to be the place to look this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The difference between subtropical and tropical SSTs is minimal at best, though I suppose there remains some negative factor in regards to TC genesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclonebuster Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 6:30 PM, am19psu said: And to Steve's point elsewhere, this doesn't mean that tropical activity as a whole is going to be nil. It'll just be closer to home, in the Caribbean, Gulf, or SW Atlantic. But the MDR is not going to be the place to look this year. I'll bet you one Whopper one Large Fry and Chocolate Milk Shake it is.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 6:44 PM, cyclonebuster said: I'll bet you one Whopper one Large Fry and Chocolate Milk Shake it is.......... Probably not. You'll see a lot of "open" waves move towards the Caribbean, where the environment will be somewhat better for development. There will be chances for MDR development, but it won't be gangbusters like 2004. I highly recommend you take the advice of others and read some of the peer review papers listed in this thread. There is much to learn about the SAL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclonebuster Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 6:55 PM, Bryan Wood said: Probably not. You'll see a lot of "open" waves move towards the Caribbean, where the environment will be somewhat better for development. There will be chances for MDR development, but it won't be gangbusters like 2004. I highly recommend you take the advice of others and read some of the peer review papers listed in this thread. There is much to learn about the SAL. Did I say gangbusters? Of course not. I am like you there will be chances...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 6:55 PM, Bryan Wood said: Probably not. You'll see a lot of "open" waves move towards the Caribbean, where the environment will be somewhat better for development. There will be chances for MDR development, but it won't be gangbusters like 2004. I highly recommend you take the advice of others and read some of the peer review papers listed in this thread. There is much to learn about the SAL. Lots of good stuff here for those wishing to understand the Sahara Air Layer (SAL) better: http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-85-3-353 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 7:01 PM, cyclonebuster said: Did I say gangbusters? Of course not. I am like you there will be chances...... chances yes. However, I've seen many a Cape Verde season go stillborn due to SAL. It can be difficult to extinguish once established as a seasonal trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclonebuster Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 7:07 PM, Sunny and Warm said: chances yes. However, I've seen many a Cape Verde season go stillborn due to SAL. It can be difficult to extinguish once established as a seasonal trend. I have seen the Sal squash them also. But that air is rich with moisture this year not like past years especially in the ITCZ.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 7:10 PM, cyclonebuster said: I have seen the Sal squash them also. But that air is rich with moisture this year not like past years especially in the ITCZ.... Once beyond the ITCZ, not so much. Check the EastPac for comparison. Note also where drier air is coming from, and there is a SAL analysis from today from the CIMSS website uploaded previous page. ETA- also noted by others- a slow MDR might mean relatively more development closer to the US, and as the famous Joe Bastardi used to note (and probably still does) Cape Verde storms usually miss the US, storms forming in closer have a relatively greater chance. Wiki track of Steve's all time favorite storm, born a month before my oldest brother... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gulfcane Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 After reading through the last 2 pages of people kicking and screaming because of the SAL, I can't imagine what these people were doing during July 2005 in the midst of one of the strongest SAL outbreaks in the history of men and women walking planet earth. Link to the July 2005 SAL outbreak that caused men and women to take to the streets of NYC and demand $50 bills from the government before going home: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclonebuster Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 10:24 PM, gulfcane said: After reading through the last 2 pages of people kicking and screaming because of the SAL, I can't imagine what these people were doing during July 2005 in the midst of one of the strongest SAL outbreaks in the history of men and women walking planet earth. Link to the July 2005 SAL outbreak that caused men and women to take to the streets of NYC and demand $50 bills from the government before going home: Wait a minute didn't we have 31 maned storms that year? A new Atlantic record since 1883............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 10:47 PM, cyclonebuster said: Wait a minute didn't we have 31 maned storms that year? A new Atlantic record since 1883............ Yes. One of them was Hurricane Lyon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclonebuster Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 11:10 PM, cg41386 said: Yes. One of them was Hurricane Lyon. Any of them form in the Sal? Perhaps Katrina did. I know she had a hard go of it East of Ft. Lauderdale,then she really cranked it up over the GOM loop current...... BTW The L storm that year was Lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Let's stick to discussing NATL Season 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 On 7/3/2012 at 11:16 PM, cyclonebuster said: Any of them form in the Sal? Perhaps Katrina did. I know she had a hard go of it East of Ft. Lauderdale,then she really cranked it up over the GOM loop current...... BTW The L storm that year was Lee. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 The definition of stupidity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Every year, people are complaining about the SAL, shear, dry air, lack of storms, etc. etc. in May/June/July as if there is supposed to be pristine TC formation conditions during that time. Enough already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 On 7/4/2012 at 3:05 AM, PSUBlizzicane2007 said: The definition of stupidity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Every year, people are complaining about the SAL, shear, dry air, lack of storms, etc. etc. in May/June/July as if there is supposed to be pristine TC formation conditions during that time. Enough already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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