HurricaneJosh Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 It's never too early to start speculatin'. Since we're entering the New Year, I thought I'd get the discussion going. Yeah, there were a ton of named storms in 2011, but by most yardsticks, the season was kind of a bust. And the USA's major-hurricane drought has now gone on crazy long. The last 100-kt 'cane to hit the USA was Wilma 2005! The last time the USA went this long without a major was the period 1861-1868. Yikes. What's 2012 going to bring us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 It isn't even next year in Western Europe yet... Based on neutral ENSO conditions, maybe more landfalling US storms. No idea why so many storms persistently underperformed this past season. I've seen the plots of lower tha n average CI, storms battled dry air, but not sure why... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Bill Read, leaving? All the criticism of boring storms got to be too much, my theory. I'm thinking outside the Box. DT? How about outside the box, but NWS. Ohleary? Isohume? The Great DR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 Bill Read, leaving? All the criticism of boring storms got to be too much, my theory. I'm thinking outside the Box. DT? How about outside the box, but NWS. Ohleary? Isohume? The Great DR? He's coming home to Houston... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I've friended Dr. Lyons on FB. Not subscribed, friended. He takes pix of deer, and walking barefoot in the snow. To be FB friends with the NHC head would be awesome. Stacy Stewart has a Bronze Star from Afghanistan and a Purple Heart from Iraq. IED. Six month in rehab, almost lost a leg. He might be due. I still treasure his disco before Hurricane Ike hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 14, 2012 Share Posted January 14, 2012 I wonder whether Dr. Rappaport would be willing to serve this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 The National Data Buoy Center will drop the old, user friendly "classic" presentation that allowed rapid navigation to a specific buoy, and allowed easy viewing of the buoy name/type on Valentine's Day. I was checking buoys offshore for a potential thunderstorm day here mid-week, getting a feel for SSTs and the GFS 2 meter model output temps, and I was confronted by the news of this St. Valentine's Day Massacre, as it were. This will become quite annoying when I'm trying to see individual buoys during tropical season. The final product looks the same, but much slower navigation there. [email protected] if anyone wants to send an e-mail... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I would love nothing more than Stacy Stewart or Ed Rappaport to be the new Director of the NHC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
99lsfm2 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 The National Data Buoy Center will drop the old, user friendly "classic" presentation that allowed rapid navigation to a specific buoy, and allowed easy viewing of the buoy name/type on Valentine's Day. I was checking buoys offshore for a potential thunderstorm day here mid-week, getting a feel for SSTs and the GFS 2 meter model output temps, and I was confronted by the news of this St. Valentine's Day Massacre, as it were. This will become quite annoying when I'm trying to see individual buoys during tropical season. The final product looks the same, but much slower navigation there. [email protected] if anyone wants to send an e-mail... Ed thanks for the heads up, email sent:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Here's my take on this. After painfully sitting through Last years season with all the named thunderstorm clusters I have decided to reevaluate what I want from a Hurricane Season. I've decided that for 2012 year I don't want a hurricane season at all. Instead, I want a Herman Cain season: 9/9/9 baby!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 ECMWF region 3.4 SSTs seems pretty bullish for a weak Nino by the summer..or at least close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 ECMWF region 3.4 SSTs seems pretty bullish for a weak Nino by the summer..or at least close to it. At this point, I'd be OK with it. It's not like the La Niñas have brought a goldmine of good chase subjects. They've all been flops in recent years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 My hunch is there will be less storms, but more potential land falling impacts for the Coastal US. ENSO neutral to weak El Nino conditions to start the season and activity closer to the Caribbean Islands versus long tracking cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Would it be possible for someone to offer some guidance? I'm looking for information on a theory that correlates tropical cyclone intensity and frequency with the temperature gradient between the tropical and upper laditudes. It might explain why last year's tropical cyclones underperformed. http://thinkprogress...cord/?mobile=nc If there is any truth to this, I'd expect this Atlantic hurricane season to be miles ahead of 2011 considering the new Arctic Oscillation regime. The cold air is still locked away whereas it was draining out last year. The arctic dipole anomaly is considerably weaker this winter. January 12-23 temperature anomalies showing the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 At this point, I'd be OK with it. It's not like the La Niñas have brought a goldmine of good chase subjects. They've all been flops in recent years. Yeah as long as it's not too strong, hopefully shear isn't all that strong. I think the other thing to watch is how the NAO looks. Will it continue more on the positive side, or will it flip negative? That will probably be important to the strength and placement of the surface Atlantic high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Yeah as long as it's not too strong, hopefully shear isn't all that strong. I think the other thing to watch is how the NAO looks. Will it continue more on the positive side, or will it flip negative? That will probably be important to the strength and placement of the surface Atlantic high pressure. Just imagine if the NAO flips when Spring starts and we would need to deal with another 2011-style pattern, ugh. Of course, not considering other factors. The infamous hurricane season 2005 had neutral ENSO conditions but arriving after an el nino period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 ENSO within moderation isn't a bad thing. 2004 was the best YouTube season ever, and had a warm ENSO. Best bendy palm video ever? ( adviso! Some expletives as car windows break, ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 90L. http://www.wundergro...1290_model.html http://www.goes.noaa...S/huirloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 Wow-- crazy. The center position puts it right smack in the Yucatan Channel. And there's a nice blowup of convection right at that spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 90L. http://www.wundergro...1290_model.html http://www.goes.noaa...S/huirloop.html Wow-- crazy. The center position puts it right smack in the Yucatan Channel. And there's a nice blowup of convection right at that spot. TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1619 UTC SUN FEB 5 2012 DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL902012) 20120205 1200 UTC ...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS... 120205 1200 120206 0000 120206 1200 120207 0000 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 22.0N 86.0W 22.7N 86.4W 23.0N 86.5W 23.3N 86.4W BAMD 22.0N 86.0W 24.0N 84.7W 26.3N 82.3W 29.0N 77.5W BAMM 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.7W 23.7N 84.7W 24.9N 83.0W LBAR 22.0N 86.0W 22.9N 85.3W 24.2N 83.8W 25.2N 80.8W SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 34KTS 31KTS ...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS... 120207 1200 120208 1200 120209 1200 120210 1200 LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON BAMS 23.8N 86.2W 25.5N 84.5W 28.1N 82.1W 31.9N 76.4W BAMD 31.3N 68.8W 29.7N 50.6W 25.6N 45.5W 20.8N 45.2W BAMM 26.7N 80.2W 30.1N 69.6W 32.3N 55.5W 30.6N 48.2W LBAR 26.1N 77.0W 25.9N 68.9W 26.3N 63.5W 23.5N 60.6W SHIP 20KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS DSHP 24KTS 0KTS 0KTS 0KTS ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... LATCUR = 22.0N LONCUR = 86.0W DIRCUR = 0DEG SPDCUR = 0KT LATM12 = 22.0N LONM12 = 86.0W DIRM12 = 360DEG SPDM12 = 0KT LATM24 = 22.0N LONM24 = 86.0W WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT CENPRS = 1014MB OUTPRS = 1016MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 First guess: 14/7/4 and it's a late-bloomer. Emphasis on October Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Mark Suddeth speaketh on 90L... http://hurricanetrack.com/?p=169 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Wow, this could be a interesting hurricane season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Re- 90L CARIBBEAN SEA...THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W CARIBBEAN ACROSS NE YUCATAN PENINSULA/YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 21N86W TO JUST OF THE TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 11N79W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 21N86W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND W OF A LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 22N78W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N84W. THIS AREA IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS DOMINATED BY A BROAD UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS TO OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC WITH THE AXIS E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO BE USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS BUT OTHERWISE LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WILL DRIFT E ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN TO 85W THROUGH WED THEN DISSIPATE THU. THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY FOCUS OF STRONG SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. Still awaiting the first special outlook/lemon of 2012... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 wait till it hits the loop current Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 wait till it hits the loop current If I were a black ops double probabtion black ops NInja mod, I'd see if I could delete an admin's comment for overt sarcasm. Oh well. Made me look... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 I'd love to see if hit 35 kt and earn a name for one advisory just for the pure freak factor of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 I'd love to see if hit 35 kt and earn a name for one advisory just for the pure freak factor of it. Indeed... I was hoping for a 45kt tampa mauler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted February 5, 2012 Author Share Posted February 5, 2012 Indeed... I was hoping for a 45kt tampa mauler. Tampa's gotten so little action the last century, it would actually be a big deal for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted February 5, 2012 Share Posted February 5, 2012 Going back to an earlier topic... I much prefer ENSO neutral years over La Nina or El Nino. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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