Cheeznado Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Don't the models have a tendency to eject the SW's too quickly? My rule is: if the SW closed low is still in the digging stage, the models tend to eject too quickly. However, if it is "rounding he turn" or in the process of lifting out, then the models actually often are too slow. This is a tricky one, but looking at the latest WV loop, the low seems to be just NW of ELP. and drifting east, which would already have it NW of the 6 hour GFS position. Plus it is hard to bet aganst the Euro and Ukie when they agree. Not super confident in the faster scenario, but that is my tentative call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 My rule is: if the SW closed low is still in the digging stage, the models tend to eject too quickly. However, if it is "rounding he turn" or in the process of lifting out, then the models actually often are too slow. This is a tricky one, but looking at the latest WV loop, the low seems to be just NW of ELP. and drifting east, which would already have it NW of the 6 hour GFS position. Plus it is hard to bet aganst the Euro and Ukie when they agree. Not super confident in the faster scenario, but that is my tentative call right now. Thanks for the explanation Cheez! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 5.82 inches this month. The GFS gives another 2 inches of rain later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 5.82 inches this month. The GFS gives another 2 inches of rain later this week. Congrats! I am around 1.15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Congrats! I am around 1.15" CAE has 1.67 so that beats last month's total of 1.11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 24, 2012 Share Posted January 24, 2012 Temp peaked at 63 today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 57 was the high for today. Not a cloud in the sky this evening but it is getting chilly rather quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I opened the windows for a few minutes this afternoon. Put them right back down just before sunset. If this winter has done anything it has made cool-ish feel downright cold. .30 since Saturday. Not sure about the yearly total since the batteries died. < temp Scratch that temp...it's 41. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 The sun came out, burned off all the fog, and the temp maxed out at a toasty 71 degrees on this 24th day of January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 fog developing again right after dark. I think the foothills will experience a lot of foggy mornings between now and Spring, with light winds usually dying off completely right in the lee, and dewpoints/temps getting within a degree of each other. The ground is completely saturated. On the cold mornings black ice could be a problem esp. when there is drizzle. Some locations may experience this in the morning, esp. around areas just east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 The sun came out, burned off all the fog, and the temp maxed out at a toasty 71 degrees on this 24th day of January I've had some of the best fog of the winter..probably the best...for the last two nights. Late in the afternoon it was starting to rise in the field next door and really looked wonderful. I should have gotten my camera I was sure I was going to see Bigfoot, or the Hound of the Basqervilles. I've gotten .9, and .8 from the last two storms, and I'm a bit short of twice as much rain as you for the year. Your time has to be coming if the rain keeps coming. It finally found me T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Finally dipped below freezing (28.3) for what seemed like a week of above freezing temps each night (will confirm that later on). Looking forward to near then slightly below normal temps this weekend and lord knows the ski resorts around the region will too as their base is dwindling and may actually be eaten up by Thursday's rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 This January has been great. Shorts and T shirts for the majority of the month, a tornado warning and these bushes and stuff blooming, and the fog everyday. Currently 57 with a dense fog advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 I've had some of the best fog of the winter..probably the best...for the last two nights. Late in the afternoon it was starting to rise in the field next door and really looked wonderful. I should have gotten my camera I was sure I was going to see Bigfoot, or the Hound of the Basqervilles. I've gotten .9, and .8 from the last two storms, and I'm a bit short of twice as much rain as you for the year. Your time has to be coming if the rain keeps coming. It finally found me T I didn't see bigfoot here, although with all of the fog he could have been standing in front of me and I would not have known Goofy and Dr. No insist that the rain is coming and CAE gives me hope too .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- AN UPSTREAM UPPER LEVEL CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO WILL SLOWLY PUSH EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY...THEN OPEN UP AND LIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES FRIDAY. WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFTING DEVELOPS IN WARM ADVECTION DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. KEPT A MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE NAM BEING SLIGHTLY LOWER AND THE GFS BEING THE SLOWEST OF ALL GUIDANCE. DISCOUNTED THE GFS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME GIVEN ITS LARGE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND AS IT IS AN OUTLIER AMONG ALL GUIDANCE AND LEANING TOWARDS THE NAM TIMING. KEPT INCREASING POPS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY FRIDAY...AND DIMINISHING POPS ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDER IS POSSIBLE GIVEN MARGINAL INSTABILITY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 looks pretty good for you. the 5h on GFS looks great. I'm still leaning heavily on it, more than the phased look of ecmwf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainMarvel Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 30 degrees right now. Lots of frost in the meadow, and on the metal roofs. Ice in the dishes and buckets. This is more like January! Got up to 63 yesterday. Actually feels like early October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 25, 2012 Author Share Posted January 25, 2012 looks pretty good for you. the 5h on GFS looks great. I'm still leaning heavily on it, more than the phased look of ecmwf. I'm just happy goofy hasn't taken away my chances again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 3-plus inches of rain for me so far in January...might as well keep that trend going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 GFS sped up the southern system, so the totals will be cut down from yesterdays run. Still 1" widespread possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 A nice 64 for the high today. Probably the best day of the week it appears. Certainly feels more like March... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 A nice 64 for the high today. Probably the best day of the week it appears. Certainly feels more like March... 67.7o for a high here. Looking forward to some rain although the 12z and 18z GFS have really cut down totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 67.7o for a high here. Looking forward to some rain although the 12z and 18z GFS have really cut down totals. I recorded 66.7 on my thermometer at work, kind of ridiculous for the date. boo, I hope we clear an inch so my gauge can overflow into the bigger cylinder for once. I've yet to see it happen with my new gauge, wanting to put that part of it to work lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Looks like you might just get that chance tomorrow night! I got up to 63.2F here today about 3:41pm. The high clouds came in this afternoon and helped keep the temp down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 I recorded 66.7 on my thermometer at work, kind of ridiculous for the date. boo, I hope we clear an inch so my gauge can overflow into the bigger cylinder for once. I've yet to see it happen with my new gauge, wanting to put that part of it to work lol I just looked at the 12z and 18z NAM and they are much wetter. Both showing about 1.25 -1.5" for us. Will be interesting to see who ends up winning, the GFS or the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Torch today! Spring is in the air! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 67 here today and noticed the jasmine has started to bloom and my iris's are sprouting up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I just looked at the 12z and 18z NAM and they are much wetter. Both showing about 1.25 -1.5" for us. Will be interesting to see who ends up winning, the GFS or the NAM. The 00Z NAM agrees! Sorry Michelle.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 The 00Z NAM agrees! Sorry Michelle.... I hope to get close to .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Ya they are calling for another 1-2 inches here. Been the wettest winter i can remember in a long while. Hope everyone gets in on the rain who have not seen that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 The 00Z NAM agrees! Sorry Michelle.... 0z GFS says nah. Less than a half inch. I need 1.21" to make this my wettest month since i got my gauge July 7, 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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