BethesdaWX Posted January 17, 2012 Share Posted January 17, 2012 The numbers: Excel file: http://madusweather..../FC_2012_01.xls Hey, I was 3min late, how does 3min = 1hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Hey, I was 3min late, how does 3min = 1hr? Have to round it up... it was due at 11:59 and you went past the deadline, so a penalty of one hour was instated. If it went the other way, then you technically wouldn't be penalized for anything up to 12:58am (59 minutes past the deadline). Of course, Mallow could be lenient and allow for the few minutes over... he's the one running this thing, after all. I'm just assessing it the way it would be without any leniency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 After 20 days ... DCA .. +3.8 NYC .. +3.7 BOS .. +3.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 After a very mild Friday, the stats for 27 days ... DCA +4.2 NYC +4.3 BOS +4.4 Not much change in these today, then it would seem likely that a few tenths will be shaved off by cold readings Sunday-Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 If NYC (Central Park) not updated due to power failure issue, in time for monthly validation, would note that both JFK and LGA were running about 0.2 lower at comparable stage (27 days) so it might be fair to take their average anomaly and add 0.2 to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I think we could just wait for actual numbers to come out. Not too much of a rush to figure scores out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Do you figure they will be able to make up the missing data? I was concerned they might post "M" as the final figure for the missing days and the month. In which case, the anomaly could be best estimated as per the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 So what do we do now? && REMARKS...DATA MISSING DUE TO ASOS BEING DOWN AT CENTRAL PARK. MONTH TO DATA...TOTALS SINCE OCT 1...DEC 1...AND JAN 1 ARE CALCULATED USING DATA THROUGH JANUARY 27TH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 I think Central park had a low of 38 on the 28th...It should be used with LGA max and LGA 29th-31st numbers...lol...just checked the local climate and that's exactly what they did...the average was 37.3...+4.7... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 FINAL DATA ... DCA and NYC 4.7 BOS 5.2 congrats to uncle W and various other torch bearers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 FINAL DATA ... DCA and NYC 4.7 BOS 5.2 congrats to uncle W and various other torch bearers. thanks...every once and a while I get it right...Sort of like a stopped clock... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Figured .. Still went to low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted April 12, 2012 Share Posted April 12, 2012 Here's a simplified alternate scoring table for January that I can update for other months, to give participants some idea how they are doing -- this is not meant to replace the Mallow scoring system and it will be interesting to compare since that one is a little more statistically "rigorous" ... all I have done here is to score each of three cities out of 100 (to keep the totals similar to the eventual official scoring) with the error deduction being 2 pts for each 0.1 deg (so that forecasts five degrees out would score zero) . I have maintained the stated rules about late entries, in this case, three penalties were applied -- will check the wording in other months to establish those penalties. Time penalties are percentages of your scored points. Maybe the intent was percentage of possible (300) points, which would have wiped out two scores completely. As stated, this is for guidance only and Mallow's scoring system will be the official guide. January scoring, in order of finish... Forecaster ......... DCA ,,, NYC ... BOS ... Total (with pen) _________________________________________ Actual ................. 4.7 ..... 4.7 ..... 5.2 Uncle W .............. 96 ..... 96 ..... 86 ..... 278 forkyfork ............. 92 ..... 88 ..... 64 ..... 244 Inudaw ............... 70 ..... 84 ..... 86 ..... 240 weathafella ......... 76 ..... 72 ..... 78 ..... 226 Litchfieldlib'ns ......70 ..... 64 ..... 92 ..... 226 debeaches ......... 90 ..... 86 ..... 46 ..... 222 Roger Smith ....... 72 ..... 76 ..... 70 ..... 218 blizzardof09 ........ 76 ..... 82 ..... 54 ..... 212 ChicagoWX ......... 80 ..... 74 ..... 58 ..... 212 PSUHazletonwx.... 74 ..... 78 ..... 60 ..... 212 frivolousz21 ........ 98 ..... 70 ..... 42 ..... 210 goobagooba ....... 66 ..... 70 ..... 74 ..... 210 hudsonvalley21... 64 ..... 70 ..... 66 ..... 200 DonSutherland1... 66 ..... 66 ..... 62 ..... 194 MidloSnowMaker.. 68 ..... 64 ..... 62 ..... 194 Blizzard92 ........... 74 ..... 66 ..... 52 ..... 192 Derek Z .............. 66 ..... 66 ..... 56 ..... 188 hockeyinc .......... 66 ..... 60 ..... 62 ..... 188 Ellinwood ............ 60 ..... 64 ..... 60 ..... 184 Candyman CSG ... 54 ..... 68 ..... 62 ..... 184 Alpha5 ................ 98 ...... 50 ..... 36 ..... 184 timp .................... 50 ..... 62 ..... 64 ..... 176 Quakertown nesn..72 ..... 62 ..... 38 ..... 172 Bkviking .............. 70 ..... 50 ..... 50 ..... 170 MN Transplant .... 56 ..... 62 ..... 48 ..... 166 nzucker .............. 68 ..... 62 ..... 32 ..... 162 Kevin Druff ......... 60 ..... 56 ..... 46 ..... 162 Tom ................... 64 ..... 60 ..... 38 ..... 162 Consensus ......... 64 ..... 56 ..... 40 ..... 160 LakeEffectKing..... 58 ..... 52 ..... 48 ..... 158 Ian ..................... 54 ..... 50 ..... 44 ..... 148 CT Blizz .............. 88 ..... 44 ..... 16 ..... 148 showmethesnow.. 30 ..... 56 ..... 50 ..... 136 BethesdaWX ...... 80 ..... 40 ..... 10 ..... 130 (-1%) = 129 H20town_WX .... 46 ..... 44 ..... 30 ..... 120 SD .................... 46 ..... 36 ..... 22 ..... 104 Mallow .............. 24 ..... 40 ..... 32 ..... 096 Qvectorman ...... 34 ..... 32 ..... 12 ..... 078 MariettaWX ....... 40 ..... 36 ..... 00 ..... 076 Pottercounty ..... 32 ..... 26 ..... 06 ..... 064 StatenWx .......... 20 ..... 34 ..... 06 ..... 060 HeatMiser ......... 04 ..... 20 ..... 32 ..... 056 Feb ................... 28 ...... 16 ..... 06 ..... 050 blazes556 ......... 72 ..... 34 ..... 06 ..... 112 (-64%) = 41 RunawayIceberg 28 ..... 12 ..... 00 ..... 040 skierinvermont .. 66 ..... 62 ..... 52 ..... 180 (-85%) = 27 Snow88 ............ 16 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 016 Rodney ............ 06 ..... 06 ..... 00 ..... 012 NORMAL ........... 06 ..... 06 ..... 00 ..... 012 okie333 ............ 00 ..... 00 ..... 00 ..... 000 This was a table of entries that Ellinwood posted during the month ... I used it to generate the above. Will work on Feb and Mar some time Thursday, and try to update to end of March so you'll have some idea how you're doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Here's what I have for compiled forecasts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted May 3, 2012 Share Posted May 3, 2012 Scores: Congrats, Uncle W! I'll have the consensus and normals added in later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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