Ellinwood Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Figured it's time to get a thread going since it's almost 2012 and we should probably start to get forecasts in. NOTE: Since we are now in 2012, the NEW 30-YEAR NORMALS (1981-2010) WILL BE USED FOR THE FORECAST. Please keep that in mind when entering. Other than that, you know the drill. Re-post of the rules below. Hopefully Mallow (or someone like Roger Smith, myself or another volunteer) can get on here soon to take over. Deadline is 11:59pm EST on January 4th. DCA: NYC: BOS: All departures will be rounded to the nearest tenth of a degree. Departures will be from the 30-year means. The reason is that I'm going to be using the standard deviation for each site for each month to calculate a "z-score". When I have the calculations, I'll post the standard deviations so people can use the info to help them come up with a forecast. For scoring, as I said above, I'll be calculating a z-score for each site, in the following manner: z-score = | forecast departure - actual departure | / standard deviation I will then find the two-tailed percentile corresponding to that z-score (a z-score of 0 would correspond with 1.00, a z-score of 1 would correspond with 0.32, etc), multiply it by 100, round to the nearest whole value, and use that value as your score for that site for that month. This will allow up to 100 points per site per month, or up to 300 points per month. Forecasts are due one minute before midnight of the month in question. You may edit your guess at any time through the due date, but if you do, you must do so in a new post. Remember, all you have to do is guess the monthly departure for the following three sites. DCA: NYC: BOS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 DCA: +3.4 NYC: +3.0 BOS: +2.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 DCA +1.1 NYC + 0.5 BOS +0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 DCA: +3.5 NYC: +3.3 BOS: +4.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 30, 2011 Author Share Posted December 30, 2011 DCA: +2.7 NYC: +2.9 BOS: +3.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hockeyinc Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I'll take "Ridiculous Torches" for $1,000 Alex, please: DCA: + 6.4 NYC: + 6.7 BOS: + 7.1 Total = +20.2 ACY: + 6.6 (always do my area) This pick was just depressing to type........ SIGH. I like winter weather. I like snow. I suspect it is not going to happen this year. I just hope that this summer is NOT another all out torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 DCA: + 2.9 NYC: + 3.2 BOS: + 3.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 DCA : +1.7 NYC : +1.5 BOS : -0.5 Total : +2.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 DCA: +3.0° NYC: +3.0° BOS: +3.3° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 DCA: -1.0 NYC: -1.7 BOS: -3.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timp Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 DCA: +2.2 NYC: +2.8 BOS: +3.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 DCA: +2.4 NYC: +2.2 BOS: +2.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 DCA: +4.5 NYC: +4.5 BOS: +4.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 DCA: +4.6 NYC: +2.2 BOS: +2.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inudaw Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Torch it! DCA: +3.2 NYC: +3.9 BOS: +4.5 I've been constantly under doing the warmth sense early Novemember. :-/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 DCA: +3.0 NYC: +3.2 BOS: +3.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Okie is the only one going with negative amounts. DCA: + 0.5 NYC: -.1.8 BOS: - 1.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 DCA: +2.9 NYC: +2.7 BOS: +2.1 CUM: +7.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 DCA: +1.2 NYC: +2.5 BOS: +2.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 DCA +2.6 NYC +2.3 BOS +2.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 DCA: +2.5 NYC: +2.8 BOS: +2.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 DCA: + 4.2 NYC: + 4 BOS: + 2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 DCA: +2.7° NYC: +2.5° BOS: +2.5° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 DCA: + 1.3 NYC: + 1.0 BOS: + 0.5 TOT: +2.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 DCA: +3.7º NYC: +3.4º BOS: +3.1º Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 DCA: +0.7 NYC: +1.4 BOS: +0.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Weenie suicide alert... DCA: +3.4 NYC: +3.6 BOS: +3.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bkviking Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 DCA: +3.2 NYC: +2.2 BOS: +2.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 DCA +3.3 NYC +3.5 BOS +3.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 DCA +4.1 NYC +1.9 BOS + 1.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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