Pattern Next Week Hinting At Above Average January Temperatures In NYC

[bluewave]

It's been very difficult for NYC to register a below normal temperature month recently.

The forecast next week of an Arctic front followed by a warm up several days later

during a La Nina pattern is hinting at January finishing up above normal. The more

recent La Nina analogs since 1999 when this occurred showed this pattern. The

relatively fast warm up seems to be a signal that the cold air can't lock in due to

the teleconnection pattern. The modeled pattern looks like NYC will see the first

low of the season in the teens followed by a rebound several days later to around

50 degrees or higher.

Here's the analog list and the monthly temperature departures for NYC:

Jan 99.....+1.3

Feb 99.....+3.6

Jan 08.....+3.9

Feb 08.....+0.5

Feb 09.....+1.4

Feb 11.....+0.7

[Stormlover74]

I would tend to agree. I think NYC gets one sub 20 low and one sub 30 high next week but thats probably it. And even that is barely a -10 departure.

[Guest Pamela]

Here's the analog list and the monthly temperature departures for NYC:

Jan 99.....+1.3

Feb 99.....+3.6

Jan 08.....+3.9

Feb 08.....+0.5

Feb 09.....+1.4

Feb 11.....+0.7

On the good side...the positive anomaly is fairly minor in 4 of the 6 years...and 2 of the 6 years are practically break even ones....which could have been thrown into plus by a couple of abnormally warm days...if one does not have semi-permanent low pressure sitting over eastern Canada...it is not particularly easy to have wave after wave of cold air circulate down into the NE US....

[uncle W]

this has been similar to 1971 but warmer...It had quick cold spells with big warm ups...I expect January to be above average this year...Hopefully February will be more wintry...

[pazzo83]

I would tend to agree. I think NYC gets one sub 20 low and one sub 30 high next week but thats probably it. And even that is barely a -10 departure.

Yea, and that isn't that much colder than the blast we had in mid Dec, where we had a 31/22 day (Dec 18), followed by days with a high of 47, 48, then 62.

[easternsnowman]

Above normal is now normal. With the exception of last January every month this year has been slightly above to way above normal and in 2010 I believe only Feb and Dec were below normal.

[Stormlover74]

I wouldn't say that we should always expect to be above normal. As recently as 2009 we had at least 6 or 7 below normal months. And before the March 2009 storm some people were saying that parts of the mid-atlantic could no longer have a snowy winter.

Above normal is now normal. With the exception of last January every month this year has been slightly above to way above normal and in 2010 I believe only Feb and Dec were below normal.

[easternsnowman]

I wouldn't say that we should always expect to be above normal. As recently as 2009 we had at least 6 or 7 below normal months. And before the March 2009 storm some people were saying that parts of the mid-atlantic could no longer have a snowy winter.

Yes we all hope this trend changes.

[StatenWx]

Man this winter has been depressing so far.

[Chris L]

January 2000 looks like a nice fit for January.

We should see some significant cold spells and warm spells.

[nzucker]

Above normal is now normal. With the exception of last January every month this year has been slightly above to way above normal and in 2010 I believe only Feb and Dec were below normal.

March finished below normal this year as well as January.

[SnowGoose69]

January 2000 looks like a nice fit for January.

We should see some significant cold spells and warm spells.

I'm not sure it will get quite that cold for as long, obviously its too far out to know what we'll see the 15th-30th but the NAO went negative that month, something it shows no sign of doing yet for this January though the GFS ensembles continue to want to try and keep it near negative later.

[Brian5671]

01-02 is the analog I'm looking at...this is slightly wetter but it's darn close--polar vortex spinning away....

[SnowGoose69]

01-02 is the analog I'm looking at...this is slightly wetter but it's darn close--polar vortex spinning away....

There is quite a bit more buckling to the jet worldwide than there was that winter. The issue that year was largely zonal flow, the problem this year is more the AK vortex and ridiculous +AO

[SnoSki14]

No surprise that January is above normal or any upcoming month for that matter. We live in a much warmer world, there's no questioning it, and this pattern is still not changing anytime soon. I still think the 2nd half will end up better than the first though, which isn't saying much.

[ag3]

No surprise that January is above normal or any upcoming month for that matter. We live in a much warmer world, there's no questioning it, and this pattern is still not changing anytime soon. I still think the 2nd half will end up better than the first though, which isn't saying much.

What does a warming world have to do with an unstoppable Alaskan vortex pumping a constant SE ridge and the nao being positive, along with the AO?

[NEXtreme]

No surprise that January is above normal or any upcoming month for that matter. We live in a much warmer world, there's no questioning it, and this pattern is still not changing anytime soon. I still think the 2nd half will end up better than the first though, which isn't saying much.

How is that possible when we have major temp drop above the boundary layer from last year and the Pacific has turned colder?

[SnowGoose69]

How is that possible when we have major temp drop above the boundary layer from last year and the Pacific has turned colder?

There was likely a lingering effect last winter from the high end moderate El Nino in 2009-2010 which allowed for the first 10 weeks or so of the winter to be relatively cold and very snowy. That eventually wore off though by mid-February and we've picked right back off there this winter effective from 11/1 to now.

[bates]

What does a warming world have to do with an unstoppable Alaskan vortex pumping a constant SE ridge and the nao being positive, along with the AO?

Agree. At the end of the day, it's all about the pattern, not some global warming element, any more than last year's snowy first half of winter was due to a warming world.

[bluewave]

I wouldn't say that we should always expect to be above normal. As recently as 2009 we had at least 6 or 7 below normal months. And before the March 2009 storm some people were saying that parts of the mid-atlantic could no longer have a snowy winter.

Right, 2009 was the coolest of the last three years for us.

[pazzo83]

January 2000 looks like a nice fit for January.

We should see some significant cold spells and warm spells.

Yea, that seems to make the most sense at this point. Lots of volatility temp wise.

[bluewave]

We were able to bounce back up above 50 a few days after the lows in the teens like the analog La Nina years.