Thundersnow12 Posted January 1, 2012 Author Share Posted January 1, 2012 going to be problems if this happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 going to be problems if this happens Gonna be interesting. The HRRR precip type shows a mix of rain and snow for the eastern and southern part of that band. Verbatim it would be a very brief period of all snow towards the end in northern Illinois, but not sure how accurate the precip type thing is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Gonna be interesting. The HRRR precip type shows a mix of rain and snow for the eastern and southern part of that band. Verbatim it would be a very brief period of all snow towards the end in northern Illinois, but not sure how accurate the precip type thing is. My NOAA point 'n click forecast has all snow after 3am. 35° early and falling throughout the day. About 1.5" of snow. Tonight I'm just going to watch that part of the storm develop and see what precipitation types show up as it evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Skilling's RPM model looks pretty decent with the quick moving deform band for southern WI/northern IL... http://www.chicagoweathercenter.com/maps/rpm/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 1, 2012 Author Share Posted January 1, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Yeah the RPM model looks legit. Looks like passes over me or stone's throw south. I'll be setting my alarm early to watch this! Once the band moves in the boundary layer should cool quickly in response to the precipitation rates. I would expect 1/2 hour of mix then the rest snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Skilling's RPM model looks pretty decent with the quick moving deform band for southern WI/northern IL... http://www.chicagowe...r.com/maps/rpm/ Looks like fun! This is going to be a long night of anticipation. Might have to turn in early tonight (right after the New Year) so I can wake up early and watch things happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Source: Intellicast.com I find these forecast maps to be pretty accurate.. They have all snow from 6 am to noon on Intellicast's 3-hour forecasts. That would be amazing for a storm I was expecting very little out of a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Seeing an area of 55kts+ at 12z tomorrow across northern Illinois. Continues across southern Michigan/northern Indiana through the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The 22z HRRR shows snow as the primary precip type pretty much at the onset in their last frame (for 13z). Probably some rain or rain/snow mix to start for the Chicago area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 where have you gone chi-storm and aleking? I need a non biased( ) take on this arctic blast .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The 12 hour RUC has the surface low at 1000mb over lake michigan at 12 UTC on Sunday, which is several mb higher than the 12Z NAM and 12Z GFS. This is actually supported reasonably well by the UK, CMC, and ECMWF. I have a feeling the 00Z NAM will come in considerably weaker with the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Yeah the NAM is coming in weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Yeah the NAM is coming in weaker. As long as it doesn't shift north, that's fine with me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Still looks nice for N IL/ S. WI. At this point though i'll put my money on the HI-RES models.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Much weaker. Incredible. The NAM continues to be just awful. Clearly a loss for the American models this time around, except for the RUC which has actually been fantastic all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Much weaker. Incredible. The NAM continues to be just awful. Clearly a loss for the American models this time around, except for the RUC which has actually been fantastic all winter. Where the GFS had a 992mb low this morning and the NAM was only slightly weaker, the 00z NAM is now 1004mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Booyah! Yes, I had to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Where the GFS had a 992mb low this morning and the NAM was only slightly weaker, the 00z NAM is now 1004mb fairly similar to the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 fairly similar to the ECMWF. Yup. Just a few days behind in figuring it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainman Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Booyah! Yes, I had to. The weaker low might not be a bad thing for LES junkies. The wind field will still be strong, but I don't know that it's optimal to have 50 mph winds ripping across the lake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I'll just drop this here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 848 PM CST SAT DEC 31 2011 .UPDATE... 00Z NAM HAS NO REAL SURPRISES OR CHANGES IN THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TACK ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS TO SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN AROUND SUNRISE. MAX LIQUID EQUIVALENT PRECIP BAND IS ORIENTED FROM NORTH/NORTHEAST OF MADISON ACROSS NORTHERN DODGE AND FOND DU LAC COUNTIES WITH AROUND 0.30 OF AN INCH. THIS IS JUST SLIGHTLY LESS THAN PRIOR 18Z MODELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 we'll rise up to around 40, and probably into the 40's later. ORD is up to 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 ORD is up to 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Meh, as I've said numerous times this winter, I'd take an inch or two, but it never happens and probably will not this time either. Oh well, there's always next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 cookie.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Moderate snow in Atlantic Iowa now. Temps in Des Moines have dropped quite a bit over the last few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 :axe: Oh wait.. DAY 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Wannabe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.