cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I just blew off party plans for tonight. Starting to look very interesting. Good way to kick off the new year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 My point forecast has been upped to 1-2" of snow tomorrow with blowing snow. Low of 32 tonight, high of 35 tomorrow morning then dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 18 Z GFS even better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 NWS Cleveland... URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 355 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011 …WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE… .A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GUST TO AT LEAST 50 MPH BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 30 MPH. GUSTS MAY EVEN BE A LITTLE STRONGER AT SOME LOCATIONS OVER NORTHWEST OHIO AND ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE. OHZ003-006>008-017-018-010500- /O.NEW.KCLE.HW.A.0002.120101T1400Z-120102T0200Z/ LUCAS-WOOD-OTTAWA-SANDUSKY-HANCOCK-SENECA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…TOLEDO…BOWLING GREEN…PORT CLINTON… FREMONT…FINDLAY…TIFFIN 355 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011 …HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING… THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * WINDS…SOUTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH. * TIMING…THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. * IMPACTS…SOME POWERLINES…LARGE LIMBS AND EVEN A FEW TREES COULD GET KNOCKED DOWN. NWS in Northern Indiana... URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 414 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011 …HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE SUNDAY… .A DEEP LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT RACES EAST. VERY STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLY REACHING 60 MPH. THE STRONG WINDS SHOULD PERSIST INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004- 005-015-016-024-025-010515- /O.NEW.KIWX.HW.A.0001.120101T1200Z-120102T0000Z/ LA PORTE-ST. JOSEPH IN-ELKHART-LAGRANGE-STEUBEN-NOBLE-DE KALB- STARKE-PULASKI-MARSHALL-FULTON IN-KOSCIUSKO-WHITLEY-ALLEN IN- WHITE-CASS IN-MIAMI-WABASH-HUNTINGTON-WELLS-ADAMS-GRANT-BLACKFORD- JAY-BERRIEN-CASS MI-ST. JOSEPH MI-BRANCH-HILLSDALE-WILLIAMS- FULTON OH-DEFIANCE-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-ALLEN OH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…MICHIGAN CITY…LA PORTE…SOUTH BEND… MISHAWAKA…NEW CARLISLE…WALKERTON…ELKHART…GOSHEN… NAPPANEE…LAGRANGE…TOPEKA…SHIPSHEWANA…ANGOLA…FREMONT… KENDALLVILLE…LIGONIER…ALBION…AUBURN…GARRETT…KNOX… NORTH JUDSON…BASS LAKE…WINAMAC…FRANCESVILLE…MEDARYVILLE… PLYMOUTH…BREMEN…CULVER…ROCHESTER…AKRON…WARSAW… WINONA LAKE…SYRACUSE…MENTONE…COLUMBIA CITY…TRI-LAKES… SOUTH WHITLEY…FORT WAYNE…NEW HAVEN…MONTICELLO…BROOKSTON… MONON…LOGANSPORT…ROYAL CENTER…PERU…GRISSOM AFB…MEXICO… WABASH…NORTH MANCHESTER…HUNTINGTON…ROANOKE…BLUFFTON… OSSIAN…DECATUR…BERNE…MARION…GAS CITY…UPLAND… HARTFORD CITY…MONTPELIER…PORTLAND…DUNKIRK…NILES… BENTON HARBOR…ST. JOSEPH…BUCHANAN…DOWAGIAC…CASSOPOLIS… MARCELLUS…STURGIS…THREE RIVERS…WHITE PIGEON…MENDON… COLDWATER…BRONSON…HILLSDALE…LITCHFIELD…JONESVILLE… BRYAN…WAUSEON…ARCHBOLD…FAYETTE…SWANTON…DEFIANCE… SHERWOOD…HICKSVILLE…NAPOLEON…DESHLER…LIBERTY CENTER… PAULDING…ANTWERP…MELROSE…OTTAWA…PANDORA…KALIDA… FORT JENNINGS…VAN WERT…DELPHOS…OHIO CITY…LIMA… SPENCERVILLE 414 PM EST SAT DEC 31 2011 /314 PM CST SAT DEC 31 2011/ …HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING… THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER… * SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY BEHIND A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT. IMPACTS… * WIND DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE INCLUDING DOWNED POWER LINES AND TREE LIMBS. * HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES MAY BECOME DIFFICULT TO DRIVE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Impressive simulated reflectivity loop on 24hr RUC. Nice wall of moderate snow and high winds. http://ruc.noaa.gov/rucnew/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=ruc7t:&runTime=2011123120&plotName=cref_t2sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=25&model=ruc&ptitle=RUC%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=24&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=t2&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Impressive simulated reflectivity loop on 24hr RUC. Nice wall of moderate snow and high winds. http://ruc.noaa.gov/...omain=t2&wjet=1 Sweet, and if the RUC is correct and the intense deformation band plows through mid morning, it may well be cold enough for snow through most of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Looks like 998mb in far southeast NE at 21z. New obs about to come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Sweet, and if the RUC is correct and the intense deformation band plows through mid morning, it may well be cold enough for snow through most of it. Sick band of higher reflectivity through your neck of the woods.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Sick band of higher reflectivity through your neck of the woods.. Would be a wicked scene with that moderate-heavy snow combined with 50mph winds. Would be like the GHD storm if it only lasted an hour lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Sick band of higher reflectivity through your neck of the woods.. I'm going to remain grounded at this point and say we may see some backside snow showers, but will wait for more model evidence to come in before thinking any more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I'm going to remain grounded at this point and say we may see some backside snow showers, but will wait for more model evidence to come in before thinking any more than that. MKX GIVEN THE VERY STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS ALREADY GOING ON WITH THE VORTMAX IN THE PLAINS...THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO GET A LITTLE CRAZY AS IT MAKES ITS WAY INTO SOUTHERN WI EARLY SUN MORNING. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY WE WILL NEED TO UPGRADE TO A WINTER STORM WARNING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...OR TO A HIGH WIND WARNING IN SOME LOCATIONS. ISOLATED NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE. Also said the EURO was a little too weak.. PUSHED BACK START TIME OF PRECIP IN SOUTH CENTRAL WI UNTIL AFTER06Z. CURRENT SFC LOW STATIONED OVER SOUTHEAST KS/SOUTHWEST IA. 18Z LOCATION VERIFIED BEST WITH THE 18Z NAM AND 12Z GFS. 12Z ECMWF WAS A LITTLE TOO WEAK. VERY STRONG VORT MAX APPARENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...DIGGING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST NE AT 20Z. THIS 500MB TROUGH IS PROGGED TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS THE SHORTWAVE HITS SOUTHERN WI AT 06Z. THIS WILL HELP TO DEEPEN THE SFC LOW RAPIDLY AND CAUSE DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND VERY STRONG WINDS ACROSS MOST PORTIONS OF WI LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 MKX Yes, but they also point out that the snow will be wet in SE Wisconsin and less likely to blow around. Not saying it won't be an interesting storm, but perhaps the near-blizzard conditions are going to come into play near Madison and points north and east. Regarding the 12z Euro, it's nice to know the Euro is not the end all be all. Given MKX's confidence, I will definitely be monitoring the GFS and NAM runs a little closer than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 18z NAM looks pretty healthy with the band as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Going to be at lambeau tomorrow. Don't have access to models. Any guesses what time the snow band arrives in green bay ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 good luck to those 50 miles north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Going to be at lambeau tomorrow. Don't have access to models. Any guesses what time the snow band arrives in green bay ? The heaviest band looks to arrive around 7 or 8 am right now; no guarantee it will start as snow, though. Should change to snow if it doesn't start that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Thanks could be an interesting drive in from appleton... Not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 good luck to those 50 miles north Buck up buttercup. It might be your best event of the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 This is the furthest north the latest RUC brings it.. Still in the 30's for both you and I. we'll rise up to around 40, and probably into the 40's later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 we'll rise up to around 40, and probably into the 40's later. Since this storm is passing further south it won't pull the warm air much further north than Chicago. GFS takes it from Rockford to Waukegan area then over the Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 MKX fail already. Low of 38, somehow, yet in the last hour the temp has fallen from 39 to 36. I know the WAA will probably kick in soon, but a low is a low, and it's possible we continue to drop for a couple more hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 Since this storm is passing further south it won't pull the warm air much further north than Chicago. GFS takes it from Rockford to Waukegan area then over the Lake. Yes but it will still warm up even more. Look at the temps in IA/MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Yes, but they also point out that the snow will be wet in SE Wisconsin and less likely to blow around. Not saying it won't be an interesting storm, but perhaps the near-blizzard conditions are going to come into play near Madison and points north and east. Regarding the 12z Euro, it's nice to know the Euro is not the end all be all. Given MKX's confidence, I will definitely be monitoring the GFS and NAM runs a little closer than usual. Same here! Lack of warmth and sun today will help the snow accumulation situation in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Yes but it will still warm up even more. Look at the temps in IA/MO. I was thinking maybe low 40s tonight with SE winds cutting off the lake here before the low passes overhead. Definitely no 50 today on the northshore like some news outlets were expecting. Channel 2 news has the temp at 32° at 2am and in the mid 20s by 6am. If that's the case everything on the backside of this storm will be frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Wind is picking up out of the SSE. Temp is 35.5 on my new Davis Vantage Vue. Sent from my iPad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I was thinking maybe low 40s tonight with SE winds cutting off the lake here before the low passes overhead. Definitely no 50 today on the northshore like some news outlets were expecting. Channel 2 news has the temp at 32° at 2am and in the mid 20s by 6am. If that's the case everything on the backside of this storm will be frozen. Could it be that they are moving the storm through quicker than most of the models? That would be crazy, and would definitely result in all snow if the deformation band moves through mid morning. Doubt it happens, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Current low position along with pressure falls... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Could it be that they are moving the storm through quicker than most of the models? That would be crazy, and would definitely result in all snow if the deformation band moves through mid morning. Doubt it happens, though. From what I could tell it was similar speed, but the temperature gradient was very steep. They showed all the moisture behind the freezing line. I want to see what WGN shows at 9:30pm. If a mix does occur it'll be quick. I roughly calculated that the freezing line will be traveling between 35-40mph to the east. Seems like MKX and other office are staying conservative with the advisories associated with the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Could it be that they are moving the storm through quicker than most of the models? That would be crazy, and would definitely result in all snow if the deformation band moves through mid morning. Doubt it happens, though. Source: Intellicast.com I find these forecast maps to be pretty accurate.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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