hawkeye_wx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 The kickers are going to have fun in the Packers game early Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 DVN VERY INTENSE STORM SYSTEM SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH AND MORE INTENSE THAN WHAT WAS DEPICTED YESTERDAY. RIVERTON WYOMING KRIW HAD A 190 METER HEIGHT FALL AT 500 MB AT 12/31 WITH A NICE 150 KNOT 300 MB JET DIVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. 12Z MODEL RUNS NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. STRONG LIFT MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO. THIS COMBINED WITH RAPID INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO OVER 35 MPH AND FALLING TEMPERATURES MAY PRODUCE NASTY WINTER WEATHER FOR A FEW HOURS LATER TONIGHT. WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED. ALSO MAY HAVE GRADIENT WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH ON SUNDAY. 12Z GFS TAKES A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING CYCLONE FROM KS TO EASTERN IA INTO ONTARIO AND DEEPENS IT TO 975 MB. WHAT A WAY TO START THE NEW YEAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 MKX indicating perhaps a need to upgrade WWA for some areas. Hard to believe that a storm with only a couple inches of snow could produce WSW criteria, but I guess the wind could help with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 DVN VERY INTENSE STORM SYSTEM SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOPS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH THE SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH AND MORE INTENSE THAN WHAT WAS DEPICTED YESTERDAY. RIVERTON WYOMING KRIW HAD A 190 METER HEIGHT FALL AT 500 MB AT 12/31 WITH A NICE 150 KNOT 300 MB JET DIVING IN BEHIND THE TROUGH. 12Z MODEL RUNS NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR SEVERAL HOURS. STRONG LIFT MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH OR SO. THIS COMBINED WITH RAPID INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO OVER 35 MPH AND FALLING TEMPERATURES MAY PRODUCE NASTY WINTER WEATHER FOR A FEW HOURS LATER TONIGHT. WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT NEEDS TO BE CONSIDERED. ALSO MAY HAVE GRADIENT WIND GUSTS TO 50 TO 60 MPH ON SUNDAY. 12Z GFS TAKES A RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING CYCLONE FROM KS TO EASTERN IA INTO ONTARIO AND DEEPENS IT TO 975 MB. WHAT A WAY TO START THE NEW YEAR. Yeah sfc low track will be crucial around here as to just how far south that snow band behind it gets. Some models take the low over RFD and to MKX wrapping the snow back into this area. With the winds, it could be a fun few hours tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 MKX indicating perhaps a need to upgrade WWA for some areas. Hard to believe that a storm with only a couple inches of snow could produce WSW criteria, but I guess the wind could help with that. Holy Cow! I thought this storm was supposed to hit Duluth and MSP! I've seen WSW for a 2, 3 inches of snow before, but it's always associated with wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Holy Cow! I thought this storm was supposed to hit Duluth and MSP! I've seen WSW for a 2, 3 inches of snow before, but it's always associated with wind. Two inches is even the high end in this case, unless the surface low trends even further SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 17z RUC takes the sfc low to Racine, WI. +SN back near MSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 17z RUC takes the sfc low to Racine, WI. +SN back near MSN. Keep trending this sucker SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Advisories/warnings could probably be justified with marginal snow amounts in this instance given the wind and it being a holiday weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Two inches is even the high end in this case, unless the surface low trends even further SE. Now I see there is two corridors/axis' of snow. One inch of snow, two inches of snow = the roads will treacherous for a time later tonight with rapid freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 Uh oh if this verifies.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Yep, even though there may be only a couple of inches of snow, with those surface winds, you're talking instant freeze up with blizzard conditions. Also, good luck getting an accurate measurement! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 LOT goes with a wind advisory for gusts up to 55 mph. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM CST /4 AM EST/ SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST /1 AM EST/ SUNDAY NIGHT. * WINDS...WEST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED. GUSTS TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 1/29/08 comes to mind with this setup, not as extreme a temp drop though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 1/29/08 comes to mind with this setup, not as extreme a temp drop though. I just was thinking of that storm. What came immediately afterwards: an active pattern! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I don't think this storm will give much but a coating and some marginal winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I don't think this storm will give much but a coating and some marginal winds... Your palms think otherwise..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 18z NAM is a bit weaker and further south with a better looking snow band on the backside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Keep trending this sucker SE. You got your wish! Hmmm, no torch ahead of this thing?! Cooling off here, lol! Waiting to see what office makes the first changes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 You got your wish! Hmmm, no torch ahead of this thing?! Cooling off here, lol! The only thing I worry about is the Euro, which indicates not much snow, even further north only an inch or two. It must be warm in the lower levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 My brothers are out in Rapid City, SD area this weekend deer hunting... I see it is gusting to near 60 already... http://www.crh.noaa.gov/unr/?n=rsois Its wide open out there with long distance shots so I doubt they shoot much...bullet will probably move a couple feet at 300 yards and 60mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 The only thing I worry about is the Euro, which indicates not much snow, even further north only an inch or two. It must be warm in the lower levels. Interesting with the Euro. ... Well the temperatures are cooler than forecast today, maybe that will help get the snow to stick sooner tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Congrats to Milwaukee and Green Bay!!! Meanwhile, the trend couldn't be any worse for us. The further south/weaker this storm gets, the shorter the window we'll have for lake effect snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 LOT's take: AS THE LOW APPROACHES TONIGHT...LOW LEVELS WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN INITIALLY. AS TEMPS BEGIN TO COOL WITH AND BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT PRECIP TYPE TO MIX WITH SNOW AND THEN QUICKLY CHANGE TO SNOW. DON/T SEE MUCH POTENTIAL FOR OTHER PRECIP TYPES. MODEL QPF FIELDS RANGE FROM ONE TO TWO TENTHS ACROSS THE NORTH TO MAINLY A TRACE ACROSS THE SOUTH. POPS HAVE ALSO BEEN STEADILY INCREASING OVER THE PAST FEW MODEL RUNS. TIME PERIOD OF CONCERN IS ROUGHLY FROM 09Z-15Z...A LITTLE EARLY IN THE NORTHWEST...A LITTLE LATER IN THE EAST. THE DIFFICULT PART IS HOW MUCH OF THIS WILL FALL AS RAIN...RAIN/SNOW MIX...SNOW AND IF MORE SNOW...HOW MUCH COULD POTENTIALLY ACCUMULATE. GIVEN HOW FAST THE COLD AIR SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA...DURATION OF ANY MIXED PRECIP SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT AND SURFACE TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING WILL LIKELY ALLOW SOME MELTING AT LEAST TO START. SO HAVEN/T CHANGED THE GOING SNOW AMOUNTS TOO MUCH WITH A FEW TENTHS POSSIBLE ALONG THE I-80 CORRIDOR TO UP TO AN INCH ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IL. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY LOW HOWEVER. SHOULD SNOW FALL FAST ENOUGH TO FORM A SLUSH...COULD SEE SOME SLICK SPOTS DEVELOP AS TEMPS BEGIN TO DROP BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING. along with the usual disclaimer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Pressure falls.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Pressure falls.. Somewhat OT, but MU is stupid, not only did they schedule a New Year's Day against Villanova for the same time as the Packers' final game, but now this storm will lessen attendance even more. Over/under 10,000 people in attendance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Somewhat OT, but MU is stupid, not only did they schedule a New Year's Day against Villanova for the same time as the Packers' final game, but now this storm will lessen attendance even more. Over/under 10,000 people in attendance? Definitely under, but the Packers game isn't that big of a factor imo. They've already clinched everything and will likely rest most of their guys. This storm won't help either forsure 12:00, New Years day, cold and windy, forget about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Definitely under, but the Packers game isn't that big of a factor imo. They've already clinched everything and will likely rest most of their guys. This storm won't help either forsure 12:00, New Years day, cold and windy, forget about it Well, that's my mentality, but I'm not much of a football fan. Those who are... anyway, back to the storm. I wonder how far north the warm front will push before the cold takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Well, that's my mentality, but I'm not much of a football fan. Those who are... anyway, back to the storm. I wonder how far north the warm front will push before the cold takes over. This is the furthest north the latest RUC brings it.. Still in the 30's for both you and I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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