Thundersnow12 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 0z GFS coming in very strong with this one bombing it out from 999mb from northeast IA to 984mb near Traverse City, MI. Although the NAM and Euro is further northwest and weaker. The models will continue to shift around with this one as the wave is still over the Pacific right now and will not be fully sampled till tomorrow night. DSM and points northeast get a solid snow event while people in the warm sector really warm up, 850mb temps >8 degrees C around here before the strong cold front pushes through. 110kt mid level jet plowing through IL as the wave goes neg tilt over WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 LOT mentions possible high wind criteria conditions for a time... THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT CONSOLIDATES JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS CAA BEGINS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHARPENS. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS CERTAINLY LOOK ATTAINABLE WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO PUSH 40 KT AT TIMES. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT A SHORT PERIOD OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS COULD OCCUR FOLLOWING THE FRONT THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LOWEST TROPOPAUSE PRESSURE OCCURS AROUND THIS TIME WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF AN EXPECTED DRY SLOT ALSO PASSING OVER THE AREA ALL OF WHICH COMBINE WITH THE SURGE OF SHARPLY COLDER AREA. MUCH OF THIS OCCURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SO LACK OF DAYLIGHT WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. OTHERWISE STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE LOW STILL DEEPENING OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER BY SUNDAY EVENING AND A 1040 MB HIGH SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 LOT mentions possible high wind criteria conditions for a time... THE SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT CONSOLIDATES JUST TO THE EAST OF LAKE SUPERIOR INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AS CAA BEGINS AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHARPENS. WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS CERTAINLY LOOK ATTAINABLE WITH GUSTS EXPECTED TO PUSH 40 KT AT TIMES. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT A SHORT PERIOD OF HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA WINDS COULD OCCUR FOLLOWING THE FRONT THROUGH DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LOWEST TROPOPAUSE PRESSURE OCCURS AROUND THIS TIME WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WITH THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF AN EXPECTED DRY SLOT ALSO PASSING OVER THE AREA ALL OF WHICH COMBINE WITH THE SURGE OF SHARPLY COLDER AREA. MUCH OF THIS OCCURS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK SO LACK OF DAYLIGHT WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. OTHERWISE STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE LOW STILL DEEPENING OVER THE ONTARIO-QUEBEC BORDER BY SUNDAY EVENING AND A 1040 MB HIGH SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. 0z NAM has mixing to around 900 mb where there are 55 kt winds at 12z Sunday so advisory criteria at the very least looks like a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Surprised there isn't more disco going on here. This bad boy is going to be bombing out...guidance are still catching up to tonights soundings observing the PV anomaly. RGEM/NAM/GFS all rapidly intensify this system...snow possible into WI with quite a bit of wind. This is going to be an awesome storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Surprised there isn't more disco going on here. This bad boy is going to be bombing out...guidance are still catching up to tonights soundings observing the PV anomaly. RGEM/NAM/GFS all rapidly intensify this system...snow possible into WI with quite a bit of wind. This is going to be an awesome storm. This is likely to be the storm that allows winter lovers in the Northwoods to rejoice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Good storm to get the snow pack going in the upper Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Good storm to get the snow pack going in the upper Great Lakes. In the LES belts, yes...Elsewhere, no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Interesting system dynamically, but for most of us it will be just a big wind machine. Better than nothing I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 The HRRR and RUC seem to want to dig the wave further south by tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Interesting system dynamically, but for most of us it will be just a big wind machine. Better than nothing I guess. Hopefully we can get some snow showers to form with the high wind. It happens atleast once a winter where a strong front will blow through and the NW flow will form snow showers with the high wind. It can really make for a nice wintery day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Surprised there isn't more disco going on here. This bad boy is going to be bombing out...guidance are still catching up to tonights soundings observing the PV anomaly. RGEM/NAM/GFS all rapidly intensify this system...snow possible into WI with quite a bit of wind. This is going to be an awesome storm. Was reading your thread in the centeral/western forum.. So you really think this puppy will be stronger/further west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 This is just nuts, 65kt winds at 850mb in the warm sector and 75kt winds back down in southwest KS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Was reading your thread in the centeral/western forum.. So you really think this puppy will be stronger/further west? Yeah definitely for the plains. Guidance still catching up. I have been highly interested for the significant wind event. CMC has been leading the way along with the UKMET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Was reading your thread in the centeral/western forum.. So you really think this puppy will be stronger/further west? The only thing that stinks is if this bad boy digs too far S and slows down the corridor of high winds will also dive S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Yeah definitely for the plains. Guidance still catching up. I have been highly interested for the significant wind event. CMC has been leading the way along with the UKMET. Further west the better. Has implications on the LES set up here. Further west would help to keep the flow more westerly and delay a switch to a more northerly flow. As long as the system is moving nne into Canada via Superior. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Further west the better. Has implications on the LES set up here. Further west would help to keep the flow more westerly and delay a switch to a more northerly flow. As long as the system is moving nne into Canada via Superior. Thanks. Ah, I was wondering, good point about the LES winds. As expected the 06Z NAM initialized much farther S and slower. By 15Z it is stronger and slower. I am excited and a little worried at the same time. If this thing backs up too far S the high winds stay in CO. The trend is W and stronger though. Guidance still in catch up mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 Geez talk about a big jump south..sfc low now goes over DBQ and MKX. Question is does the south trend continue further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 The RUC is forecasting a 18 degree C temp drop at 850mb tomorrow afternoon/evening in central NE.....in 6 hours......Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Geez talk about a big jump south..sfc low now goes over DBQ and MKX. Question is does the south trend continue further. Fairly similar to the 0z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 85kt winds at 850mb tomorrow evening in the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 WWA's now up for Mad-Town!! Enjoy Turtle Should get some nice wind whipped powder ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND WIND DRIVEN SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST SUNDAY. * TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES. * WINDS...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS UP TO 30 MPH GUSTING TO 50 MPH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. * IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...SNOW...AND FALLING TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE FOR SLICK ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. TRAVELING WILL BE HAZARDOUS BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. Looks like I might even get an inch too now according to LOT! HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 414 AM CST SAT DEC 31 2011 .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT MAY PRODUCE SMALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1 INCH...NORTH OF A ROCK FALLS TO VALPARAISO LINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 12z NAM came in even further south with the ejecting wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 WWA's now up for Mad-Town!! Enjoy Turtle Should get some nice wind whipped powder Looks like I might even get an inch too now according to LOT! It's gonna be epic to have this mini blizzard right during the New Year's party. I probably won't be able to post obs like usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 The HRRR shows this coming in after 2 am, which is much different than MKX's assessment. This is kind of the long range for the HRRR though so it isn't that trustworthy yet. http://rapidrefresh....omain=q2&wjet=1 Actually I lied, the WWA is 3-9 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I'm really liking the wind chances on this one, been watching it for a week on the models. Usually I look for a 24mb+ pressure differential over the lower peninsula of michigan to get into that high wind warning zone... This storm will be close to 28mb difference per the 12z GFS, And with all the cold air spilling in it should mix down some very nice wind gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 GFS is pretty far south with the low like the NAM as well. Might be an inch on the backside along with strong winds. I didn't think this system could get interesting this far south. That said, taking what has happened this year, something will likely change to give us nothing more than flurries or a few snow showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I'm really liking the wind chances on this one, been watching it for a week on the models. Usually I look for a 24mb+ pressure differential over the lower peninsula of michigan to get into that high wind warning zone... This storm will be close to 28mb difference per the 12z GFS, And with all the cold air spilling in it should mix down some very nice wind gusts I am surprised SE MI NWS was the only one with a High Wind Watch this morning. I am going to buy some gas for the generator today. Chances of power outages are very good tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Wow at the track shifting going on here. The winds are going to be killer given the mixing. Think about that agony of those who loose power...right before a significant arctic blast. Thank god it will be short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 12z GFS has 900 mb winds 60-65 kt winds at 12z Sunday from Iowa down into central/southern IL. It looks like mixing doesn't quite extend that high at that time but there would be big problems if it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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