msp Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 figured it's time to start a thread for tonight's little system. precip across the dakotas, NE, and IA now, though much of it is rain. as was mentioned in the general disco thread, the 18z NAM was quite the letdown for msp after its 12z run. mpx mentions this as well: WAS FAIRLY CONFIDENT EARLIER TODAY LOOKING AT 12Z MODEL RUNS THAT WE WOULD SEE A STRIPE OF 2-4 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS WC MN TO MSP OVERNIGHT. NOW THE 18Z NAM AND THE 12Z ECMWF ARE TAKING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW FARTHER SOUTH...INTO SE IA BY 12Z AS 700 MB LOW TAKES A MORE SLY TRACK. MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK WOULD AT LEAST SHINK THE AREA WHICH WOULD BE AFFECTED BY RAIN AS SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE A BIT COLDER. MUCH OF THIS CHANGE SEEMS TO BE DUE TO MODELS NOW TYING MORE INTO THE VORT MOVING ACROSS WY INTO W NEB RATHER THAN THE VORT DROPPING OUT OF SASK INTO NW MT. AN EXAMPLE OF THE HUGE CHANGE IN MODEL OUTPUT IS THE .42 QPF THAT THE 12Z NAM FOUS67 DUMPED ON MSP TO THE BIG ZERO PRODUCED FROM 18Z OUTPUT. PRETTY FRUSTATING WITH SUCH SWINGS IN GUIDANCE. CUT BACK ON THE QPF/SNOW AMOUNTS THAT ORIGINALLY CONTEMPLATED...AND PUT SOME SNOW AMOUNTS INTO THE SC AREAS WHERE COLUMN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOW COOL SUFFICIENTLY FROM UPPER LOW TRACKING ACROSS IA. ENDED UP WITH A BROADER BAND OF 1-3 INCHES SNOW. western MN should still get some snowfall even if the 18z verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Yeah this system ejected much stronger than guidance progged...and it also resulted in a jet max displaced farther S with greater amplification aloft. NCEP guidance absolutely busted this event synoptically...UK/ECMWF were superior once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I'm below freezing here and if that band of qpf over e SD holds and moves east then maybe get a quick inch or so overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD 815 PM CST THU DEC 29 2011 .AN AREA OF RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES ALONG...AND ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE HAVE FALLEN TO NEAR OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS SOME ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE ARE EXPECTED...CAUSING SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES OVERNIGHT. MNZ071-072-080-081-090-300900- /O.NEW.KFSD.ZR.Y.0002.111230T0215Z-111230T0900Z/ LINCOLN-LYON-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TYLER...HENDRICKS...LAKE BENTON... IVANHOE...MARSHALL...SLAYTON...FULDA...WINDOM...MOUNTAIN LAKE... JACKSON...LAKEFIELD 815 PM CST THU DEC 29 2011 ...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM CST FRIDAY. * TIMING...OCCASIONAL FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 3 AM. * ACCUMULATIONS...ICE ACCUMULATIONS AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Latest 02Z Smartcast showing areas in and around Rochester, MN areas with a bit of Freezing Rain, then changing into snow. Looking at a few inches of snow across this areas. Looking at around 1-2" across the areas of MN, with Chandler Field, MN with the highest accumulation through 13Z of 2". Full update uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 MPX has issued a wwa for my area. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 917 PM CST THU DEC 29 2011 ...WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TONIGHT... MNZ041-048-057-065-067-075-076-084-085-093-301130- /O.NEW.KMPX.WW.Y.0042.111230T0317Z-111230T1200Z/ DOUGLAS-POPE-KANDIYOHI-RENVILLE-SIBLEY-NICOLLET-LE SUEUR-WASECA- STEELE-FREEBORN- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALEXANDRIA...GLENWOOD...WILLMAR... OLIVIA...GAYLORD...ST. PETER...LE SUEUR...WASECA...OWATONNA... ALBERT LEA 917 PM CST THU DEC 29 2011 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE COMBINATION OF FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM CST FRIDAY. * TIMING...A MIXTURE OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPECTED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND BEFORE 6 AM CST FRIDAY. * MAIN IMPACT...ICY ROADS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND ICE. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS AND/OR 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. * OTHER IMPACTS...UNTREATED ROADS AND OTHER SURFACES MAY BE SLIPPERY FOR THE FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I am not sure how well this will turn out north of the main low. The mass response is rapidly diving S as the secondary PV undulation begins to reform the surface low southward. There isn't much left with the leftover deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I am not sure how well this will turn out north of the main low. The mass response is rapidly diving S as the secondary PV undulation begins to reform the surface low southward. There isn't much left with the leftover deformation band. Yeah, this sucks...temp above freezing now so i don't think much will be left when the temps cool. Hats off to the ukie/euro on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 18Z SmartCast showing 1-2" snow accumulation through 05Z for areas across the Dubuque, IA and Truax Field, WI areas. Heaviest snow looks to occur around the 19-21Z time frame across this area. Details uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Had just over an inch here early this morning...finally looks like winter even though this will be melted by tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted December 30, 2011 Author Share Posted December 30, 2011 got some flakes here earlier in the but nothing stuck save a dusting on the bushes. disappointment once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSchwake28 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Ended up with 4.4 here in Grand Forks. Seems just a bit high but it was the official NWS ob so seems reasonable. Was a bit surprised waking up this morning after seeing how light the snow was last night and looking at radar.. I figured maybe 2 inches tops. Either way, it was a nice little surprise and great to finally see my first "real snowfall" up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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