NorEaster27 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 LES advisory for even northern warren, thats rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 SOUTHERN HERKIMER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ILION...HERKIMER...LITTLE FALLS... MOHAWK...FRANKFORT...DOLGEVILLE 423 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. * LOCATIONS...WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...7 INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE. * TIMING...MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=NYZ038&warncounty=NYC043&firewxzone=NYZ038&local_place1=Herkimer+NY&product1=Lake+Effect+Snow+Watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 So, is it too late for me to drive up to Tug Hill from DC. I'm actually half serious. Yes. Desperation has sunk in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 KALB by 1 am tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Polarbear Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 So, is it too late for me to drive up to Tug Hill from DC. I'm actually half serious. Yes. Desperation has sunk in. I would guess there's still time...What is it, a 10-12hr drive? From what it seems,it'll likely just be getting ramped up then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormtracker81 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Finally pulled the trigger for ROC URGENT -WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 402 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 NYZ003>005-014-020515-/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0001.120102T2300Z-120103T2300Z/ MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-ONTARIO-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN... CANANDAIGUA 402 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...MONROE...WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND ONTARIO COUNTIES. * TIMING...EARLY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT AND 5 TO 8 INCHES TUESDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. GREATEST AMOUNTS LIKELY EAST OF ROCHESTER. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS 10 TO 15 TUESDAY. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH POOR VISIBILITY AND HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MODERATE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. ONLY A SMALL CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION CAN MOVE THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 High Wind Warning Lakeshore Flood Warning Lake Effect Snow Warning Special Weather Statement Hazardous Weather Outlook Tonight: Scattered rain and snow showers before midnight, then snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after 3am. Low around 28. Windy, with a west wind between 26 and 32 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Monday: Snow showers and areas of blowing snow before noon, then snow showers likely after noon. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. Windy, with a west wind between 25 and 29 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Monday Night: Snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 7. Wind chill values as low as -10. Breezy, with a west wind between 17 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif WOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 If this happens here tomorrow night I'll be happy. At this point any snow is welcome.... From ALY: Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 10. Wind chill values as low as -6. West wind between 16 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 buffalo will get the screwjob on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Cant wait for the rain ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE SOME TIME TOCOOL THE COLUMN ENOUGH TO SUPPORT LAKE EFFECT GIVEN THE VERY WARM START AHEAD OF THE FRONT. NAM/GFS BUFKIT PROFILES SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP BY MID EVENING TO START A BAND. STRONG WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND INITIALLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL PREVENT ANYTHING TOO ORGANIZED BEFORE MIDNIGHT. WHATEVER DOES FORM WILL DO SO ACROSS THE BUFFALO METRO AREA. BOUNDARY LAYER MAY STILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO ALLOW SOME RAIN TO MIX IN WITH VERY LITTLE ACCUMULATION THROUGH MIDNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Not much is said here about Georgian Bay bands, but looking at the BTV WRF.... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/ Around 18Z tomorrow it actually has a GB band cutting through between Smith's Falls and Brockville and then into St. Lawrence County, NY with 30-35 dbz all the way to Potsdam..... A Lake Erie gets to me with 25 dbz ...hard to believe, but obviously the model thinks they are going to carry great distances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Until now the BUF WRF hadn't had much QPF going inland past the Chautauqua Ridge, but this is nice: 1.0" QPF line is not far away, and it seems to have a nice band over southern Chautauqua county for a time, which isn't common, but when it does happen, we usually cash in. Who knows where the bands will be when winds shift NW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Until now the BUF WRF hadn't had much QPF going inland past the Chautauqua Ridge, but this is nice: 1.0" QPF line is not far away, and it seems to have a nice band over southern Chautauqua county for a time, which isn't common, but when it does happen, we usually cash in. Who knows where the bands will be when winds shift NW... Enjoy your 1-2FT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Holy Sh1t... I checked a few hours ago and it had 6-10" for SYR. Hmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 Holy Sh1t... http://image.weather.com/images/maps/winter/ski_ne_600x405.jpg[/ I checked a few hours ago and it had 6-10" for SYR. Hmm.... yeah but its.TWC lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Looks good to me. My new store opens Tuesday. Figures the weather will suck lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Finally pulled the trigger for ROC URGENT -WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 402 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 NYZ003>005-014-020515-/O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0001.120102T2300Z-120103T2300Z/ MONROE-WAYNE-NORTHERN CAYUGA-ONTARIO-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCHESTER...NEWARK...FAIR HAVEN... CANANDAIGUA 402 PM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...MONROE...WAYNE...NORTHERN CAYUGA AND ONTARIO COUNTIES. * TIMING...EARLY MONDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT AND 5 TO 8 INCHES TUESDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO 15 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. GREATEST AMOUNTS LIKELY EAST OF ROCHESTER. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 10 ABOVE MONDAY NIGHT. HIGHS 10 TO 15 TUESDAY. * IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE VERY DIFFICULT TRAVEL AT TIMES WITH POOR VISIBILITY AND HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. * FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MODERATE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS. ONLY A SMALL CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION CAN MOVE THE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL. Dude, I'm super psyched for this. Our first real potential at some interesting LES. I live just down the road in W. Irondequoit about 1/2 mile from the lake. In my experience, our only downside is the wind intensity which sometimes doesn't allow for the cold air to gather enough moisture as it crosses L ontario. As you know, Monroe county is probably the most difficult area in NYS to forecast LES. It seems like a crap shoot as to if we get one inch or 17 inches. I'm thinking about 9. but it's anyones guess at this point. none of the models are showing anything for us. I hope they are wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Dude, I'm super psyched for this. Our first real potential at some interesting LES. I live just down the road in W. Irondequoit about 1/2 mile from the lake. In my experience, our only downside is the wind intensity which sometimes doesn't allow for the cold air to gather enough moisture as it crosses L ontario. As you know, Monroe county is probably the most difficult area in NYS to forecast LES. It seems like a crap shoot as to if we get one inch or 17 inches. I'm thinking about 9. but it's anyones guess at this point. none of the models are showing anything for us. I hope they are wrong. I have a feeling you should get a decent amount of snow Monday night into Tuesday. Most likely near a foot, especially areas just to the east of the City. Really windy! PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 734 PM EST SUN JAN 01 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0600 PM NON-TSTM WND GST DUNKIRK 42.49N 79.35W 01/01/2012 M59 MPH CHAUTAUQUA NY C-MAN STATION Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Quick post.....(no time for a map)....max locations in BOTH Erie and Ontario bands will approach 40"....Near Sherman (or just to the north of there) off Erie, and at the triple point of Oswego, Lewis, Oneida Counties (ie center Tug Hill area). Everyone else (from Rome to Ithaca and points NW'ward) does quite well on a less than steller NW-NNW flow later Mon. night into Tues... (6-12") Look for some micro lollies south of the FL's..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 This is an odd post. The storm system is in its infancy right now. The surface low is going to rapidly deepen, heights will crash, the flow will turn SW under extremely strong CAA. Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, Genesee County and even parts of Monroe could see some heavy action during the first part of this storm. Saying less than an inch is ridiculous. Lake Erie is very warm right now, don't doubt the possibilities. hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 heavy sleet or graupel not sure,but it's sticking on the ground.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 Snowing heavily here in Cheektowaga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Lake and Ashtabula counties in NE Ohio and Erie County, PA could do quite well on Monday night and Tuesday morning as a Huron Bay connection develops to Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Snowing heavily here in Cheektowaga 03Z UPDATE...LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES LAKE EFFECT NOW SHOWERSARE STARTING TO BLOSSOM ACROSS LAKE ERIE. EXPECT THAT THESE SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY MOVE ACROSS KBUF...BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS. BANDS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF KIAG AND WILL LEAVE THEM VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. BY 06Z WINDS SHOULD VEER ENOUGH TO THE WEST TO PUSH THE LAKE EFFECT BANDS MAINLY SOUTH OF KBUF/KROC BRINGING THOSE SITES BACK TO VFR WHILE CONDITIONS AT KJHW/KART WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR TO IFR BY AROUND 09Z AS COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND BANDS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED/INTENSE. CONTINUED GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL FURTHER REDUCE VISIBILITY IN SNOWBANDS...PARTICULARLY AT KJHW AND KART. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 kinda cool double band look to Lake Erie right night could help BUF metro for a few hours before the winds veer further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 THUNDERSNOW HERE IN CHEEKTOWAGA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormtracker81 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Lakes have come to life Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 THUNDERSNOW HERE IN CHEEKTOWAGA! I thought I saw a flash to the northeast out of the window. Nice...must be the help from the synoptic lift because the lake-induced instability is pretty marginal right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I thought I saw a flash to the northeast out of the window. Nice...must be the help from the synoptic lift because the lake-induced instability is pretty marginal right now. northtowns getting hit nicely now,i heard rumbles of thunder also.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 Near whiteout here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.