ayuud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 6pm would be fine imo. Yeah, 1-2 ft Monday morning through Tuesday morning. It's possible the top of the hill at 2250 ft could exceed 2 ft...but I'd think the best chance of that is on the chautauqua ridge since they get slammed better on Monday night when the flow turns northwesterly. what are your thoughts for downtown area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormtracker81 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I'm guessing Rochester will cash in Monday night. I'm right along the shoreline by the genes river entrance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 6pm would be fine imo. Yeah, 1-2 ft Monday morning through Tuesday morning. It's possible the top of the hill at 2250 ft could exceed 2 ft...but I'd think the best chance of that is on the chautauqua ridge since they get slammed better on Monday night when the flow turns northwesterly. Thanks for your input. I'll pass the info. on to the skiiers tonight. They should have a great time. My family and I were able to go last year right before new years and the skiing was tremendous. Lots of snow and powder. The crowds were the only downside, but that shouldn't be as much of an issue for the friends this year because they are going post new years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 This certainly is an impressive storm, here's a fun little fact that I just read from a Lake Superior warning. "WIND AND WAVES DURING THE STORM WARNING: EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF UP TO 41 KNOTS FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS UP TO 53 KNOTS. THE LARGEST EXPECTED SIGNIFICANT WAVES WILL BE 23 FEET WITH A MAXIMUM WAVE HEIGHT OF UP TO 33 FEET POSSIBLE." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 1, 2012 Author Share Posted January 1, 2012 My Thinking. This is only though Monday at Noon so it does not include any snow we will get once the winds shift NW and N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 KBGM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 High Wind Warning Lakeshore Flood Warning Lake Effect Snow Warning Hazardous Weather Outlook Tonight: Rain and snow showers likely before 7pm, then snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow after 9pm. Low around 26. Windy, with a west wind between 31 and 37 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Monday: Snow showers and widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. Windy, with a west wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Metro has great chance to get hit with this quite a bit as well... From NWS FD: THE FIRST COLD FRONT WILL BE WELL TO THE EAST OF THE REGION ON MONDAY BUT SURFACE WINDS WILL STILL BE GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY EARLY ON. THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF THE LAKE SNOW BANDS OFF LAKE ERIE WILL BE MIGRATING SOUTHWARD FROM THE METRO BUFFALO AND GENESEE/WYOMING COUNTIES TO THE MORE TRADITIONAL CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE AND SO-CALLED SKI COUNTRY AS THE SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 This looks to be one hell of a front coming through later today. Hopefully the northern fringes of Toronto can get hit by a squall late tonight just so we can say that we were part of the action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Nice front, but just squalls of "rain" from it here.... takes awhile for the cold air to filter in here. This looks to be one hell of a front coming through later today. Hopefully the northern fringes of Toronto can get hit by a squall late tonight just so we can say that we were part of the action! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 what are your thoughts for downtown area? same as I said yesterday pretty much. Downtown and metro BUF will be hard pressed to get more than 3". The only thing that we might have going for us is the disorganization of the band in the early part of the event leading to more widespread but lighter snows as opposed to the more traditional single band of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 same as I said yesterday pretty much. Downtown and metro BUF will be hard pressed to get more than 3". The only thing that we might have going for us is the disorganization of the band in the early part of the event leading to more widespread but lighter snows as opposed to the more traditional single band of heavy snow. Good call yesterday,next threat is Monday night into Tuesday with that nw flow and again on Wednesday when the winds turn wsw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 921 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 NYZ006>008-012230- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.120102T0300Z-120103T1500Z/ OSWEGO-JEFFERSON-LEWIS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OSWEGO...WATERTOWN...LOWVILLE 921 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...THE EASTERN LAKE ONTARIO REGION AND TUG HILL PLATEAU. * TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT...5 TO 10 INCHES MONDAY...5 TO 9 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESS TUESDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 FEET IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 30 OVERNIGHT. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S MONDAY. LOWS 5 BELOW TO 5 ABOVE ZERO MONDAY NIGHT. BETWEEN 5 BELOW AND 5 ABOVE ZERO TUESDAY. * IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WHICH WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT OR EVEN NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. TRAVEL ALONG INTERSTATE 81 AND ADJACENT ROADWAYS WILL BE SEVERELY IMPACTED BY THE INCLEMENT WEATHER CONDITIONS. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 921 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 NYZ012-019>021-085-012230- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.120102T0300Z-120103T1500Z/ WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARSAW...JAMESTOWN...OLEAN... WELLSVILLE...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 921 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY... * LOCATIONS...WYOMING AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTY AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. * TIMING...LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 6 INCHES OVERNIGHT...4 TO 7 INCHES MONDAY...5 TO 9 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT...AND AN INCH OR LESS TUESDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS IN THE MID 20S OVERNIGHT. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S MONDAY. LOWS 5 TO 10 ABOVE MONDAY NIGHT. BETWEEN 5 AND 10 ABOVE TUESDAY. * IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WHICH WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT OR EVEN NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. TRAVEL ALONG THE NEW YORK STATE THRUWAY AND ADJACENT ROADWAYS FROM HAMBURG TO THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE LINE WILL BE SEVERELY IMPACTED BY THE INCLEMENT WEATHER CONDITIONS. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 921 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 NYZ010-011-012230- /O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0001.120102T0000Z-120102T1700Z/ NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA 921 AM EST SUN JAN 1 2012 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY... * LOCATIONS...GENESEE AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DOWNTOWN BUFFALO TO BATAVIA. * TIMING...EARLY THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY MORNING. * ACCUMULATIONS...3 TO 5 INCHES TONIGHT AND 1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY MORNING...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THE MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS. * WINDS...WEST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 60 MPH. * VISIBILITIES...NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. * TEMPERATURES...LOWS AROUND 30 TONIGHT. HIGHS AROUND 30 MONDAY. * IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WHICH WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT OR EVEN NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES WITH LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Good call yesterday,next threat is Monday night into Tuesday with that nw flow and again on Wednesday when the winds turn wsw. yeah wednesday could deliver a decent WAA lake-effect event...we'll see. The NW flow stuff is mainly for northtowns...I'm almost certainly skunked on that. Maybe I'm wrong and the models don't have the winds as WSW/SW as they should be...but I doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 My lake effect snow outbreak blog has been updated. Looks like the heavier snows should stay south of Buffalo across the Chautauqua Ridge area and into northern Pennsylvania across Crawford, Erie, McKean, and Warren counties. I am still waiting to see as the mesoscale models line up the snow bands as the flow shifts a bit more northerly. Hoping for a decent 322 streamer to form here across Pennsylvania off Erie. http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Blizzard92/comment.html?entrynum=212#commenttop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I'm going to go out on a limb and say BUF metro gets less than 1" from tonight through Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Looks like around 10 inches of snow in my area with 50+ mph winds. Exciting times! Tonight: A chance of rain and snow showers before 8pm, then snow showers. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow after 9pm. Low around 27. Windy, with a west wind between 31 and 36 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Monday: Snow showers and widespread blowing snow before 4pm, then snow showers likely and widespread blowing snow after 4pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 29. Windy, with a west wind around 29 mph, with gusts as high as 46 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I'm going to go out on a limb and say BUF metro gets less than 1" from tonight through Tuesday. The NWS thinks differently....They wouldn't issue a LES warning if conditions were not favorable for snow in Northern Erie County. Look at Lake Michigan, it is clearly a SW flow with loads of LES coming off that lake. Same will happen here, be patient and watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The NWS thinks differently....They wouldn't issue a LES warning if conditions were not favorable for snow in Northern Erie County. Look at Lake Michigan, it is clearly a SW flow with loads of LES coming off that lake. Same will happen here, be patient and watch! The bands over Lake Michigan are originating on NW flow. I don't agree with the NWS...it doesn't look good for northern Erie County. None of the models put anything significant into BUF metro. The flow is too westerly when the cold air arrives tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Almost no trajectory beyond (southwest of) 270 degrees with this then I guess you're saying. Maybe the northern Tug will also end up being too far north. I'd love to see this shift into the I-90 corridor (east of SYR) for awhile before it sweeps on through completely. But that's a different lake. I'm going to go out on a limb and say BUF metro gets less than 1" from tonight through Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The bands over Lake Michigan are originating on NW flow. I don't agree with the NWS...it doesn't look good for northern Erie County. None of the models put anything significant into BUF metro. The flow is too westerly when the cold air arrives tonight. IMO they' should drop the LES warning for buf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Almost no trajectory beyond (southwest of) 270 degrees with this then I guess you're saying. Maybe the northern Tug will also end up being too far north. I'd love to see this shift into the I-90 corridor (east of SYR) for awhile before it sweeps on through completely. But that's a different lake. yeah I mean it probably starts on 260-265...but flow like that doesn't target metro Buffalo. That's favorable flow for southern erie and central eastern erie county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 IMO they' should drop the LES warning for buf. 4-8" isn't typically a warning...but I think they are given latitude since the winds are going to be so strong...so the snow will be especially hazardous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormtracker81 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 My drive from IL to ROC looks dicey on tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 The bands over Lake Michigan are originating on NW flow. I don't agree with the NWS...it doesn't look good for northern Erie County. None of the models put anything significant into BUF metro. The flow is too westerly when the cold air arrives tonight. This is an odd post. The storm system is in its infancy right now. The surface low is going to rapidly deepen, heights will crash, the flow will turn SW under extremely strong CAA. Niagara, Orleans, Northern Erie, Genesee County and even parts of Monroe could see some heavy action during the first part of this storm. Saying less than an inch is ridiculous. Lake Erie is very warm right now, don't doubt the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 From Don Paul: "There is no evidence whatsoever of a northwest flow overnight; it’s more likely to begin tom’w afternoon." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tornado Girl Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Getting a little bit of IP on the Tug right now. Winds are SE 10-20 gusting to 32 mph..............Just setting here waiting for the show to begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Well you probably want to hit the good LES oif you are like the rest of us. LOL But if you want to avoid it and save some miles and tolls...crossing southern Ontario works well. I've done it several times on Midwest trips. My drive from IL to ROC looks dicey on tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormtracker81 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Well you probably want to hit the good LES oif you are like the rest of us. LOL But if you want to avoid it and save some miles and tolls...crossing southern Ontario works well. I've done it several times on Midwest trips. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormtracker81 Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Well you probably want to hit the good LES oif you are like the rest of us. LOL But if you want to avoid it and save some miles and tolls...crossing southern Ontario works well. I've done it several times on Midwest trips. I'm stoked to hit the bands. Especially when I have a good vehicle (RAM). My concern would be them shutting down I.90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 Pretty awesome forecast on the Tug tomorrow: Monday: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 28. Breezy, with a west wind between 20 and 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 19 to 25 inches possible. http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=43.7492731811147&lon=-75.70472717285156&site=buf&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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