OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 The Euro definitely sucks for the metro area and the southtowns. Cold air arrives late and on westerly winds. Looks good for those in Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and southern Erie Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 The Euro definitely sucks for the metro area and the southtowns. Cold air arrives late and on westerly winds. Looks good for those in Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and southern Erie Counties. did you look at the 09z sref ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 The Euro definitely sucks for the metro area and the southtowns. Cold air arrives late and on westerly winds. Looks good for those in Chautauqua, Cattaraugus, and southern Erie Counties. Isn't the Euro better at predicting Synoptic systems then Mesoscale events like LES? Aren't models such as the BufKit, NAM, SREF far better for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 wow i took a nap and woke up to all kind of watches.Woohoo!! I took a nap and did the same thing, and posted nearly an identical statement....WOW deja vu... ROFL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 did you look at the 09z sref ? even the northtowns get in action on the sref lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 even the northtowns get in action on the sref lol Those images you posted are once the winds shift NW Ayuud. We need southwest winds to really hit the metro hard...Northwest winds create small tiny bands of snow and is so dependent on your location. NWS seems convinced of band starting out at Metro points northeast dropping south across southtowns and into ski country on Monday.4-8 for Metro and 8-16 for southern Erie county and ski country. Will see if it pans out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Isn't the Euro better at predicting Synoptic systems then Mesoscale events like LES? Aren't models such as the BufKit, NAM, SREF far better for this? i've never used the sref for lake-effect so I'm not sure about that. BUFKIT is just a model tool. It's only as good as the NAM file or the GFS file that are used in it. The Euro is tough to beat at this range. And there is a synoptic element to this anyway...the euro has the low weaker and brings the cold air in significantly later...why would the NAM be better at diagnosing that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Those images you posted are once the winds shift NW Ayuud. We need southwest winds to really hit the metro hard...Northwest winds create small tiny bands of snow and is so dependent on your location. NWS seems convinced of band starting out at Metro points northeast dropping south across southtowns and into ski country on Monday.4-8 for Metro and 8-16 for southern Erie county and ski country. Will see if it pans out.... can you post a link for what sref product you are looking at specifically? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Those images you posted are once the winds shift NW Ayuud. We need southwest winds to really hit the metro hard...Northwest winds create small tiny bands of snow and is so dependent on your location. NWS seems convinced of band starting out at Metro points northeast dropping south across southtowns and into ski country on Monday.4-8 for Metro and 8-16 for southern Erie county and ski country. Will see if it pans out.... lol look at that lake Ontario band! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I'm feeling fail on this one. 18z NAM has gone with the Euro...now doesn't get -9C 850s in here until 06z Monday. 850 winds at that time look west...maybe a slight south component. Meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 can you post a link for what sref product you are looking at specifically? ftp://ftp.meteo.psu.edu/pub/bufkit/SREF/09/sref_kbuf.buz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Sunday night through Monday. 2" or less at the airport 3" or less in the populated southtowns 3-6" in the higher elevations of central Erie 6-12" in the higher elevation of south and southeast Erie 1-2 ft in northern Cattaraugus and the Chautauqua Ridge Airport could get "saved" on Monday night when the arctic front comes through and winds flip NW/NNW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 ftp://ftp.meteo.psu....9/sref_kbuf.buz bad link...nothing is opening. Is that a SREF Bufkit file? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I'm feeling fail on this one. 18z NAM has gone with the Euro...now doesn't get -9C 850s in here until 06z Monday. 850 winds at that time look west...maybe a slight south component. Meh. yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 bad link...nothing is opening. Is that a SREF Bufkit file? yeh copy that to your bufget,i get error when i try to download it directly.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 From Don Paul: Again, Buffalo and the Ntowns are NOT out of the significant accumulation picture, despite what some bloggers speculate–and that’s why they’re in the Watch. The heaviest amounts will end up in Ski Country, but this isn’t an all-or-nothing-at-all proposition. There continues to be a significant chance for several hours of accumulating LES in the meto area and NE ‘burbs tom’w evening, with frequent whiteouts, before the veering takes place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 NAM is picking up on what I think is an embedded shortwave coming through between hour 51-60. =0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 any chance of mixed precip with this one by the lakeshore? last time it was raining here while it was snowing couple blocks away lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 You can't go by the 39 degree water temperature to determine lake instability. Because that is not the temperature of the majority of the lake. If you look at the link below you will see 85% of the lake is at 40 degrees and 25-35% is at 42-45 degrees. This will create enough instability sunday night to create LES on a SW/WSW flow. The strong winds is what worries me the most.... http://www.glerl.noaa.gov/res/glcfs/glcfs.php?lake=e&ext=swt&type=N&hr=15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 You can't go by the 39 degree water temperature to determine lake instability. Because that is not the temperature of the majority of the lake. If you look at the link below you will see 85% of the lake is at 40 degrees and 25-35% is at 42-45 degrees. This will create enough instability sunday night to create LES on a SW/WSW flow. The strong winds is what worries me the most.... http://www.glerl.noa...wt&type=N&hr=15 lol couple of days ago it was showing the lake temps drop to 38F by now,that model is crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 lol couple of days ago it was showing the lake temps drop to 38F by now,that model is crap. Its not a model, its in Nowcast mode. And it is accurate. The lake temperature is 39 degrees... At 30 feet in the Buffalo Harbor...Not the entire lake, it varies all over, and can be changed in days with windy conditions and upwelling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Its not a model, its in Nowcast mode. And it is accurate. The lake temperature is 39 degrees... At 30 feet in the Buffalo Harbor...Not the entire lake, it varies all over, and can be changed in days with windy conditions and upwelling. probably, anyways why is it taking so long for nws buf to update their afd..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 KBGM OUR TURN FOR LAKE EFFECT WILL COME LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTWITH THE SECONDARY FRONT. THIS SHIFTS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO NW BY TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPS FALL INTO THE LOW -20S C WHICH IS THE COLDEST SO FAR THIS SEASON. MONDAY NIGHT THE FLOW WILL BE TRANSITIONING SO NO SINGLE BAND WILL SET UP OVER A LOCATION FOR VERY LONG. ON TUESDAY THE FLOW IS 330 SO MULTIBANDS ACROSS CENTRAL NY INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. WIDESPREAD SNOW BUT NO ONE LOCATION WILL HAVE THAT MUCH FOR ANY 12 HOUR PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES EAST TUESDAY SO WAA STARTS LATE TUESDAY. MOST LIKELY EVENT WOULD BE A LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FOR ABOUT HALF OF OUR CENTRAL NY COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHER WEATHER MARGINAL FOR ANY FLAGS. WIND CHILL TEMPS FALL BELOW ZERO LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND STAY THERE INTO WED. AIR TEMPS ONLY BETWEEN 10 AND 20 WITH A 15 TO 25 MPH WIND. EASILY THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WINTER TO DATE. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BGM&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 From Don Paul: Again, Buffalo and the Ntowns are NOT out of the significant accumulation picture, despite what some bloggers speculate–and that’s why they’re in the Watch. The heaviest amounts will end up in Ski Country, but this isn’t an all-or-nothing-at-all proposition. There continues to be a significant chance for several hours of accumulating LES in the meto area and NE ‘burbs tom’w evening, with frequent whiteouts, before the veering takes place. I respect Don Paul but I don't agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Kinda funny ..it has the Lake Erie band all the way over me at 57.... and extends all the way to NH! But it's the Ontario band that could do me some good and it's aligned wrong..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 It doesn't look like the flow will ever set up right for the Mohawk Valley ....maybe the Tug/Adks band sweeps down, but doesn't set up for us.. More of a quick thrill...then the duration it sprays the Fingers Lakes and maybe southwest/west Catskills. KBGM http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 gfs coming around to the idea of the secondary cold front overnight Sunday being the major player to make to allow sufficient conditions for lake-effect. 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 A question for you locals and mets - a few friends are leaving for Holiday Valley tomorrow to go skiing for a few days. They are coming over tonight for a party. Any suggested timeline for them to be at their destination before the 'snow show' begins? I am thinking if they are there by 6 pm they should be OK, or is this wrong? If they ask snow totals - 1-2 feet about right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 A question for you locals and mets - a few friends are leaving for Holiday Valley tomorrow to go skiing for a few days. They are coming over tonight for a party. Any suggested timeline for them to be at their destination before the 'snow show' begins? I am thinking if they are there by 6 pm they should be OK, or is this wrong? If they ask snow totals - 1-2 feet about right? 6pm would be fine imo. Yeah, 1-2 ft Monday morning through Tuesday morning. It's possible the top of the hill at 2250 ft could exceed 2 ft...but I'd think the best chance of that is on the chautauqua ridge since they get slammed better on Monday night when the flow turns northwesterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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