ayuud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 the nam certainly favors the s.towns than the metro,i hope it's wrong though.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 LEK....Any thoughts on how much the Peek N Peak area may get down here in the SW corner of NY? I am trying to figure how long we will be stuck here if we don't leave by sunday evening? We only have a front wheel drive Sienna loaded with 5 people and all their ski equipment!!! Starting and ending time frame? I could help you out in a coastal situation, but the LE scenarios baffle me!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 You know my parents and I were caught in a major LES band in Hamburg in either October or November of 1967, on the way back from visiting an uncle in South Bend IN. LOL ......long before your time no doubt. I had just turned 2 years old and can't recall it, but my Dad always talked about it. We had to pull off the road and get a motel.. The Thruway was impassable. Back then there were no other options such as I-86 etc and I-80 wasn't finished across PA. Of course nowadays with radar on mobile devices etc..maybe we would have realized a small diversion could take us right around the band. Hoping to get a decent shot of LES in Hamburg. Will be posting pics and videos all day if it unfolds. If its just south of here, I will be driving around chasing that band! Of course, unless it gets to dangerous because I do not have 4 wheel drive or a truck, just snow tires and a car. =/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 from nws afd "THE HIGHER WINDS WILL ALSO EXTEND ANY LAKE SNOWS FROM LAKE ERIE WELL INLAND AND MAY BECOME ONE CONTINUOUS BAND FROM METRO BUFFALO TO NEAR ROCHESTER AND ONWARD TO WATERTOWN." High winds with the full fetch of lake sometimes aid Ontarios band going through watertown. 40-50 MPH winds are going to make it tough to get a solidified band going. However, I remember a LES storm 2 years ago that gave me 15+ inches with 50+ mph wind gusts and blizzard conditions for the whole duration of the event. http://www.erh.noaa..../stormsumh.html There it is. Will be interesting to see if the marginal instability and strong winds will be enough to break apart the band when the winds remain SW/WSW from Sunday Afternoon into Monday Morning. From Monday PM through Tuesday night the winds will definitely be NW, so be tough to get any snow in KBUF during that timeframe. Unless some sneaky shortwaves come rolling through! =P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 You know my parents and I were caught in a major LES band in Hamburg in either October or November of 1967, on the way back from visiting an uncle in South Bend IN. LOL ......long before your time no doubt. I had just turned 2 years old and can't recall it, but my Dad always talked about it. We had to pull off the road and get a motel.. The Thruway was impassable. Back then there were no other options such as I-86 etc and I-80 wasn't finished across PA. Of course nowadays with radar on mobile devices etc..maybe we would have realized a small diversion could take us right around the band. Yea there are quite a few options now. The NYS thruway is almost always cleared, unless there is an intense band of LES that last for hours and hours. Last years storm was a great example of that.....Thousands of motorists were standed for over a day on the NYS thruway. Here is that storm: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/lakeffect/lake1011/b/stormsumb.html They made changes to prevent this now though. You know those railroad things that go down when a train is coming? They put those at every entrance of the 90, so if a huge storm comes they put those down and prevent people from clogging the thruway. Buffalo has a great snow removal team, unmatched in most populated regions, now with this new ingenious technique people getting stranded on the thruway is going to be far less prevalent. Thing about LES is thats its so intense when your in the heart of it, but a few miles each way and your sunny and bare ground. So while driving in it, all you have to say is a few miles and I will have clear roads! However, sometimes the LES is so intense, its nearly impossible to drive those few miles to get out of it! =P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I have actually gotten dustings from Lake Erie bands here in extreme circumstances and whats that around 250 miles as the crow flies.... High winds with the full fetch of lake sometimes aid Ontarios band going through watertown. 40-50 MPH winds are going to make it tough to get a solidified band going. However, I remember a LES storm 2 years ago that gave me 15+ inches with 50+ mph wind gusts and blizzard conditions for the whole duration of the event. http://www.erh.noaa..../stormsumh.html There it is. Will be interesting to see if the marginal instability and strong winds will be enough to break apart the band when the winds remain SW/WSW from Sunday Afternoon into Monday Morning. From Monday PM through Tuesday night the winds will definitely be NW, so be tough to get any snow in KBUF during that timeframe. Unless some sneaky shortwaves come rolling through! =P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 You know my parents and I were caught in a major LES band in Hamburg in either October or November of 1967, on the way back from visiting an uncle in South Bend IN. LOL ......long before your time no doubt. I had just turned 2 years old and can't recall it, but my Dad always talked about it. We had to pull off the road and get a motel.. The Thruway was impassable. Back then there were no other options such as I-86 etc and I-80 wasn't finished across PA. Of course nowadays with radar on mobile devices etc..maybe we would have realized a small diversion could take us right around the band. Might have been this storm: 32.0" in Sherman, 28.4" in Westfield, 18.5" in Fredonia, and 17.0" in Northeast, PA. Sharp gradient inland, though. Great storm in a great month... 92.0" of snow fell in Sherman that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Yep I recall that event... Thruway has been closed over here in major Noreasters. The last time was probably Valentines Day 2007. Of course it was closed last August after all the Irene flooding and all of the traffic was diverted through my local area on US-20. Yea there are quite a few options now. The NYS thruway is almost always cleared, unless there is an intense band of LES that last for hours and hours. Last years storm was a great example of that.....Thousands of motorists were standed for over a day on the NYS thruway. Here is that storm: http://www.erh.noaa..../stormsumb.html They made changes to prevent this now though. You know those railroad things that go down when a train is coming? They put those at every entrance of the 90, so if a huge storm comes they put those down and prevent people from clogging the thruway. Buffalo has a great snow removal team, unmatched in most populated regions, now with this new ingenious technique people getting stranded on the thruway is going to be far less prevalent. Thing about LES is thats its so intense when your in the heart of it, but a few miles each way and your sunny and bare ground. So while driving in it, all you have to say is a few miles and I will have clear roads! However, sometimes the LES is so intense, its nearly impossible to drive those few miles to get out of it! =P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Might have been this storm: 32.0" in Sherman, 28.4" in Westfield, 18.5" in Fredonia, and 17.0" in Northeast, PA. Sharp gradient inland, though. Great storm in a great month... 92.0" of snow fell in Sherman that month. Do you still have that thread that shows every LES in Buffalo? I would love to bookmark that! You put loads of work into that, it needs to get appreciated more, possibly adding it on to the NWS LES page that only goes back to 1998! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Definitely looks like about the right date. I could ask my Mom, but she may not recall the exact date after 40+ years. Hah... I remember only one thing on that trip..getting nipped by my uncles basset hound "Mr. Picket" out in IN. LOL Might have been this storm: 32.0" in Sherman, 28.4" in Westfield, 18.5" in Fredonia, and 17.0" in Northeast, PA. Sharp gradient inland, though. Great storm in a great month... 92.0" of snow fell in Sherman that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Do you still have that thread that shows every LES in Buffalo? I would love to bookmark that! You put loads of work into that, it needs to get appreciated more, possibly adding it on to the NWS LES page that only goes back to 1998! I still have all of my data, but the project is on hold until I gain the enthusiasm to continue it. It gets pretty tedious to sift through 49 notepad documents, some of which are over 36,000 lines long (I also have 82 other COOPs in CNY and east of Lake Ontario). Though if you're ever wondering about a storm or winter, I can get you the data. Actually, for even pre-1884 (the first year BUF kept snowfall #'s) I have some old newspaper articles that can help piece together a little bit about those winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 LEK....Any thoughts on how much the Peek N Peak area may get down here in the SW corner of NY? I am trying to figure how long we will be stuck here if we don't leave by sunday evening? We only have a front wheel drive Sienna loaded with 5 people and all their ski equipment!!! Starting and ending time frame? I could help you out in a coastal situation, but the LE scenarios baffle me!!!! Should be OK in that area up until 2am....after that...all bets off, at this time. Ending time is a little tough to pin point...850 ridge doesn't look to "plow" through, so the LES may linger for some time, though in a weaker state with a lower cap. Should definitely be "over" by Tues. afternoon at the latest. Could be a 18-30 incher for the hills of SW NYS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I wonder what we usually need to get more of a single band event off Ontario (or a couple bands, etc.) rather than the multi-band spray stuff. That's about the only way we can actually get a several inch LES event here 125 + miles from the lake. From the sounds of it ...not much will be able to traverse the long distance here ... dry and 0F thankless wx seems likely. Normally I'd bow out of the LES conversation and stick to synoptic, but we are in a hopeless state this winter. 6 inches of snow total for November and December. Rick, I think you're SOL this time around...even though winds should be plenty strong enough throughout much of the event, the orientation of the band(s) will swing past your "sweet" alignment fairly quickly. You know the drill for your area....the Mohawk valley is your friend. Any established band (and upper lake connections help as well) over Ontario running down Oneida Lake (frozen or not) over a long period with nice 25+ mph winds gives you your best shot. It also helps if the "outside" environment is plenty moist. All the above is nice, but if the synoptic airmass is too dry, any band aimed at you (that would otherwise have your name on it) will wither away and dry up somewhere to your west....and you are left observing some low level carcasses drifting by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 I'll try to get out to my GF's in west seneca for this since my house is in cheektowaga about 2 miles north of broadway... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 It looks like the tug hill will get hit pretty hard from Monday morning to Monday evening. The latest NAM is showing westerly to west-southwesterly winds during that period with shear becoming minimal by the afternoon. There will also be good moisture from the surface to about 700 mb with fairly unstable lapse rates. There may also be some added moisture from Georgian Bay/Lake Huron. The NAM gives a QPF for that area of between .6 and .7 inches which could translate to well over a foot given snow ratios of 25:1 or higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 looking forward to the pics in this thread this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 00z Sunday night on the WRF NAM-No cumulus run out of BUF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 High Wind Watch for BUF with 30-40mph sustained winds with gust to 65mph (YES 65!!) LES WATCH also issued for Northern Erie and Genesee for 4-8" and issued for S Erie and the Southerntier countiesfor 8-16" of snow... Wondering if the NWS may issue a Blizzard warning? Could be a distinct possibility. When you have heavy fluffy snow falling in 65mph winds I imagine conditions will be very blizzard like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 High Wind Watch for BUF with 30-40mph sustained winds with gust to 65mph (YES 65!!) LES WATCH also issued for Northern Erie and Genesee for 4-8" and issued for S Erie and the Southerntier countiesfor 8-16" of snow... Wondering if the NWS may issue a Blizzard warning? Could be a distinct possibility. When you have heavy fluffy snow falling in 65mph winds I imagine conditions will be very blizzard like. they didn't in the January 2008 event...so I'd doubt they do it here. BUF airport actually did verify a blizzard in January 2008 (less than 1/4 vis, snow/blowing snow, and frequent gusts over 35 mph) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 they didn't in the January 2008 event...so I'd doubt they do it here. BUF airport actually did verify a blizzard in January 2008 (less than 1/4 vis, snow/blowing snow, and frequent gusts over 35 mph) but whens the last time we had snow or heavy snow falling with 65mph gust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 but whens the last time we had snow or heavy snow falling with 65mph gust? during that event lol. That was the one where the second highest seiche was recorded on Lake Erie...it was like 11.5ft above low water datum. The lower ninth ward was flooded and there was chunks of ice thrown off the lake. There was nearly hurricane force sustained winds on Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNYLakeEffect Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 High Wind Watch for BUF with 30-40mph sustained winds with gust to 65mph (YES 65!!) LES WATCH also issued for Northern Erie and Genesee for 4-8" and issued for S Erie and the Southerntier countiesfor 8-16" of snow... Wondering if the NWS may issue a Blizzard warning? Could be a distinct possibility. When you have heavy fluffy snow falling in 65mph winds I imagine conditions will be very blizzard like. I think that BUF prefers to have a LES headline+Wind headline in a LES with blizzard conditions setup, with the exception being region-wide blizzard conditions (January 1985), where a blizzard warning would be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 during that event lol. That was the one where the second highest seiche was recorded on Lake Erie...it was like 11.5ft above low water datum. The lower ninth ward was flooded and there was chunks of ice thrown off the lake. There was nearly hurricane force sustained winds on Lake Erie. That's right! I remember that. I think the airport recorded an 87mph gust and the bills game had the goalpost tip over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Hey all, Great stuff I have been reading in this thread. I am in Amherst with family and am driving back down Monday morning to VA. We go back through Batavia and head south... wondering if we should leave early Monday morning or late Monday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 Hey all, Great stuff I have been reading in this thread. I am in Amherst with family and am driving back down Monday morning to VA. We go back through Batavia and head south... wondering if we should leave early Monday morning or late Monday morning... Id say late... Early Monday AM will prob have Blizzard Conditions... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 WOHOO!! Took a nap, wake up to this! Going to be an exciting night tomorrow! 8-16 inches with 50+ mph winds! BLIZZARD!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I think that BUF prefers to have a LES headline+Wind headline in a LES with blizzard conditions setup, with the exception being region-wide blizzard conditions (January 1985), where a blizzard warning would be issued. Good point, the NWS in Buffalo is notoriously stubborn about issuing a "blizzard product". I assume it has something to do with the mesoscale issue around the lakes (IE: conditions aren't widespread enough) I also think that Buffalo might have a little bit of a reputation about being snow tough guys and thus they don't want to throw one out too easily. Either way, the upcoming few days look to be absolutely fascinating, I've been waiting way too long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Good point, the NWS in Buffalo is notoriously stubborn about issuing a "blizzard product". I assume it has something to do with the mesoscale issue around the lakes (IE: conditions aren't widespread enough) I also think that Buffalo might have a little bit of a reputation about being snow tough guys and thus they don't want to throw one out too easily. Either way, the upcoming few days look to be absolutely fascinating, I've been waiting way too long. I don't think the NWS in Buffalo has raised a Blizzard Warning since the storm of 1993 and again in 1985, not sure about these numbers...But I don't remember a blizzard warning in a long time. As Delta pointed out conditions are just not widespread enough to issue such a term. I believe it scares the public, and if the band doesn't hit that specific region, they just get high winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I don't think the NWS in Buffalo has raised a Blizzard Warning since the storm of 1993 and again in 1985, not sure about these numbers...But I don't remember a blizzard warning in a long time. As Delta pointed out conditions are just not widespread enough to issue such a term. I believe it scares the public, and if the band doesn't hit that specific region, they just get high winds! The last time BUF issues a blizzard warning for the metro area was 1985. The March 1993 blizzard warnings were for the eastern part of the county warning area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 wow i took a nap and woke up to all kind of watches.Woohoo!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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