BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 "SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY (WINDY WITH WSW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS)...TIMING THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY EASY SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING VERY QUICKLY...MODEL ERRORS IN POSITION ONLY TRANSLATE INTO AN HOUR OR TWO DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF WHEN IT CROSSES WESTERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE INITIAL IMPACT AN INCREASE IN WINDS. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY WINDY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH LIKELY WEST OF OLEAN TO ROCHESTER...AND ALSO NE OF LAKE ONTARIO IN OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE LESS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH GUSTS MORE IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY." Last year for the Dec 1st-3rd event they said the same thing. The band drifted 5-10 miles more north then originally forecasted. Many times LES events are real time forecasted, especially with exact placements. The atmospheric conditions show favorability in terms of LES, but exact placement is tough outside of 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 "SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY (WINDY WITH WSW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS)...TIMING THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY EASY SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING VERY QUICKLY...MODEL ERRORS IN POSITION ONLY TRANSLATE INTO AN HOUR OR TWO DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF WHEN IT CROSSES WESTERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE INITIAL IMPACT AN INCREASE IN WINDS. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY WINDY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH LIKELY WEST OF OLEAN TO ROCHESTER...AND ALSO NE OF LAKE ONTARIO IN OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE LESS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH GUSTS MORE IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY." Last year for the Dec 1st-3rd event they said the same thing. The band drifted 5-10 miles more north then originally forecasted. Many times LES events are real time forecasted, especially with exact placements. The atmospheric conditions show favorability in terms of LES, but exact placement is tough outside of 24 hours. For some reason they mentioned in their HWO that northern Erie&Niagara could see significant snow accumulations on Monday night into Tuesday. NYZ001-002-010-011-312100-NIAGARA-ORLEANS-NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE- 339 PM EST FRI DEC 30 2011 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW YORK. .DAY ONE…THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WESTERN NEW YORK ON NEW YEARS DAY. THIS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO THE NIAGARA FRONTIER SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH MONDAY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 45 MPH DURING THIS PERIOD ARE LIKELY. SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH MONDAY…WITH SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIVING SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPACTED BY WEATHER DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THOSE PLANNING TO TRAVEL SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Metro has best chance Sunday Afternoon into Monday Morning for LES. NW winds don't hit the metro, maybe the airport, but not the metro. If they do they are weak bands. Here is Syracuse FD SUNDAY WILL BE THE START OF CHANGE WITH WINDY AND COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS LACKING WITH THE FRONTS BUT LAKE EFFECT WILL BE A MAJOR PLAYER MONDAY TO WEDNESDAY. FIRST STRONG COLD FRONT MIDDAY SUNDAY. LITTLE PRECIP BUT SOME RAIN SHOWERS CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS. WINDY WITH STACKED LOW BOMBING AND STALLING AS IT MOVES EAST TO HUDSON BAY. VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CAUSE SFC TEMPERATURES TO DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON. LAKE EFFECT SHOULD START SUNDAY NIGHT BUT FLOW IS SW TO W SO AFFECTING MOSTLY CENTRAL NEW YORK WITH EMPHASIS ON NORTHERN ONEIDA. THE FLOW DOES NOT CHANGE UNTIL THE SECONDARY FRONT GOES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SHIFT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO THE NW AND INTO ALL OF CENTRAL NY AND INTO NE PA. THIS WILL START THE MAIN EVENT WITH ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE ENTIRE CWA AND WINDY COLD CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY ONLY SLOWLY FALL SLOWLY UNTIL THE SECOND FRONT. AGAIN QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS DO NOT LOOK GREAT EXCEPT MAYBE FOR NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY NEW YORK. ATTM NOT LOOKING AT ANY FLAGS UNTIL AT LEAST MONDAY. Then the Buffalo FD: SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY (WINDY WITH WSW LAKE EFFECT SNOWS)...TIMING THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY EASY SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING VERY QUICKLY...MODEL ERRORS IN POSITION ONLY TRANSLATE INTO AN HOUR OR TWO DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF WHEN IT CROSSES WESTERN NEW YORK. THE FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THE INITIAL IMPACT AN INCREASE IN WINDS. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY WINDY ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH LIKELY WEST OF OLEAN TO ROCHESTER...AND ALSO NE OF LAKE ONTARIO IN OSWEGO AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE LESS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH GUSTS MORE IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. Consensus shows LES starting Sunday Afternoon into Night from Metro into Southtowns, sinking south into Ski Country. The only question mark is enough instability from the first front crossing WNY. The Second cold front brings really cold air but it turns the winds to NW. In addition to enough instability is the very strong winds on Sunday into Monday that might prevent a solid band from forming. I have a feeling KBuf will receive a decent shot of snow from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 For some reason they mentioned in their HWO that northern Erie&Niagara could see significant snow accumulations on Monday night into Tuesday. nw to nww flow has delivered some significant event in the north towns and niagara county when the air is very cold you tend to get excellent ratios from Georgian Bay and Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Thanks to Devin last year in regards to the December 1st to 3rd event. Notice any similiarites? URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1141 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 NYZ010>012-019-020-085-010045- /O.NEW.KBUF.LE.A.0005.101201T2100Z-101203T0000Z/ NORTHERN ERIE-GENESEE-WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS- SOUTHERN ERIE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...BATAVIA...WARSAW... JAMESTOWN...OLEAN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE 1141 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2010 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. * LOCATIONS: THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK INCLUDING ERIE...GENESEE...WYOMING... CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. * TIMING: LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTENSIFY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO EXACTLY WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL PERSIST THE LONGEST. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE BUFFALO SOUTHTOWNS AND SOUTHERN GENESEE COUNTY SOUTHWARD ACROSS SKI COUNTRY. IF THE FORECAST WIND DIRECTION CHANGES JUST SLIGHTLY...THE HEAVIER SNOW MAY MOVE NORTH TOWARDS THE HEART OF THE BUFFALO METRO AREA AND BATAVIA OR FARTHER SOUTH INTO CHAUTAUQUA AND CATTARAUGUS COUNTY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED ONE FOOT WHERE THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW PERSISTS THE LONGEST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Metro has best chance Sunday Afternoon into Monday Morning for LES. NW winds don't hit the metro, maybe the airport, but not the metro. If they do they are weak bands. Here is Syracuse FD So this isn't really a good setup for significant LES in the Syracuse area? Sorry, I'm just a snow lover, I don't really know a lot of these advanced terms that the forecast discussions have in them haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 So this isn't really a good setup for significant LES in the Syracuse area? Sorry, I'm just a snow lover, I don't really know a lot of these advanced terms that the forecast discussions have in them haha. No Monday and Tuesday morning are great in terms of LES for Syracuse. Was just pointing out Buffalos best chance is Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Syracuse should easily get more snow then Buffalo from this. Possibly in the feet in the Tug Hill and points just south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2Slick Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 No Monday and Tuesday morning are great in terms of LES for Syracuse. Was just pointing out Buffalos best chance is Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Syracuse should easily get more snow then Buffalo from this. Possibly in the feet in the Tug Hill and points just south. Oh, awesome! Sorry for the misunderstanding, and good luck to you guys! Hope we both get hit hard with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Consensus shows LES starting Sunday Afternoon into Night from Metro into Southtowns, sinking south into Ski Country. The only question mark is enough instability from the first front crossing WNY. The Second cold front brings really cold air but it turns the winds to NW. In addition to enough instability is the very strong winds on Sunday into Monday that might prevent a solid band from forming. I have a feeling KBuf will receive a decent shot of snow from this. If KBUF largely dodges this bullet (I personally don't see any sustained band making it to the airport, so anything over 3 inches would surprise me), we could be looking at some crazy low snowfall totals through mid-January. Most mets posting long range thoughts seem pretty confident that we flip back to the mild pattern after this upcoming cold shot through at least mid January, if not longer. I'm curious what the latest date is in KBUF history to get past double digits (10") for the seasonal snowfall total. .CLIMATE... THROUGH DECEMBER 28TH TOTAL SNOWFALL TO START THE 2011-12 SEASON ARE: BUFFALO 3.5 INCHES ROCHESTER 4.4 INCHES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 If KBUF largely dodges this bullet (I personally don't see any sustained band making it to the airport, so anything over 3 inches would surprise me), we could be looking at some crazy low snowfall totals through mid-January. Most mets posting long range thoughts seem pretty confident that we flip back to the mild pattern after this upcoming cold shot through at least mid January, if not longer. I'm curious what the latest date is in KBUF history to get past double digits (10") for the seasonal snowfall total. .CLIMATE... THROUGH DECEMBER 28TH TOTAL SNOWFALL TO START THE 2011-12 SEASON ARE: BUFFALO 3.5 INCHES ROCHESTER 4.4 INCHES 2 years ago was also pretty bad. We had snow in Dec, Jan, and Feb. Nothing in Nov, March, or April which was shocking. That was evident in the snow totals for that year. Only had 8 inches so far here this year, pretty sad! http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/lowtracks/lowtrack_ensembles.gif Some of these are still all over the place. The farther west the better for Metro Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 nw to nww flow has delivered some significant event in the north towns and niagara county when the air is very cold you tend to get excellent ratios from Georgian Bay and Ontario. i remember this one event where Niagara falls got like 30 inches from Ontario . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 i remember this one event where Niagara falls got like 30 inches from Ontario . yep Jan of 2010. Got like 20"+ in Amherst if I remember correctly. Different set up though if I remember correctly as well I think there was a cutoff low north of Vermont/Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 0z nam tracks the low a little further south compared to its 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 KALB AS THAT FRONT COMES THROUGH...THE LOWEST LEVELSOF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AND COULD PRODUCE A WINTER INSTABILITY EVENT (WINDEX). A WINDEX EVENT CAN PRODUCE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW (SNOW SQUALLS) WHICH GENERALLY DO NOT PRODUCE MUCH ACCUMULATION...BUT CAN CAUSE TRAVEL PROBLEMS SINCE THEY CAN REDUCE VISIBILITY RAPIDLY AND ULTIMATELY PRODUCE BLACK ICE .WE MIGHT BE DEALING WITH SOME PURE LAKE EFFECT COME TUESDAYBUT TOO EARLY TO ASSESS HOW EXTENSIVE THAT AREA WOULD BE...BUT WOULD PROBABLY TAKE PLACE DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...MOHAWK VALLEY AND NORTHEASTERN CATSKILLS. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 i like the placement of the low on the 0z nam, definitely looks better for the metro@! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 The 0z NAM has a 12+ hour period of LES from Metro Buffalo Northeast into the Southtowns. I am beginning to think from Sunday Afternoon into Monday Afternoon period has to be watched very closely for Intense LES. Going to be fun to watch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 31, 2011 Author Share Posted December 31, 2011 I'd be so happy to pick up 6" total all week long. I really hope kissing bridge and especally holiday valley can pick up a few feet out of this. I know i asked this a few days ago but does anyone here think with the extreme fluff factor (30:1) someone could see 60"+ out of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I'd be so happy to pick up 6" total all week long. I really hope kissing bridge and especally holiday valley can pick up a few feet out of this. I know i asked this a few days ago but does anyone here think with the extreme fluff factor (30:1) someone could see 60"+ out of this? Honestly, I am surprised at the lack of interest or enthusiasm for this event. I was hoping, the last time you asked, that someone with a lot of experience in LE in this area would answer your question. I am currently at a condo at the top of the slopes at Peek N Peak in Findley Lake, NY. I am suppose to leave Monday mid day but have a feeling I may be snowed in an extra day at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 The 0z NAM has a 12+ hour period of LES from Metro Buffalo Northeast into the Southtowns. I am beginning to think from Sunday Afternoon into Monday Afternoon period has to be watched very closely for Intense LES. Going to be fun to watch! the wind direction on the NAM looks more favorable for the southtown than it does for the airport to me. Sigma wind is 260 and the surface wind is 245-250. Intense is a strong word. Winds are very strong and modest lake-induced instability will be a limiting factor...moisture looks great though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 the wind direction on the NAM looks more favorable for the southtown than it does for the airport to me. Sigma wind is 260 and the surface wind is 245-250. Intense is a strong word. Winds are very strong and modest lake-induced instability will be a limiting factor...moisture looks great though. I'll take the it! I'm hoping for a good shot Sunday Afternoon into Monday Morning. Will be posting pics as the band develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roady Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Events that feature Finger lakes snow...make me want to open up a big can of "yawwwwwn." LOL NIMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Events that feature Finger lakes snow...make me want to open up a big can of "yawwwwwn." Hey Brian!....Well, I agree with you, except with the backdrop of our current predicament (dearth of anything!) and the delta's we will see for a bit on Monday, may make for quite a response from L. Ontario, even in a multi-banded phase. I could see many folks S. and SE of both the big lakes getting over a foot by Tues. Eve. and some micro locals just south of the Finger Lakes getting substantially more than that....but the wind has to be just right, of course, for any one particular location to get pelted.... As for L. Erie and the potential for Buffalo....I'm pretty stoked for them for Sunday night. CAPE will be increasing, elevated lake temps vs. normal, little shear (progged at this time). Metro will get a foot easy...and as the band sags south into the ski areas....I think 2' or so for them is a good bet. Tug should do likewise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I hope you're right LEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I hope you're right LEK. Well, not knowing exactly where you live, my thoughts at this time would be more hopeful for you if you are on the southern portion of the metro area...ie.....if you're south of Broadway...I think you're in good shape! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Well, not knowing exactly where you live, my thoughts at this time would be more hopeful for you if you are on the southern portion of the metro area...ie.....if you're south of Broadway...I think you're in good shape! Hoping to get a decent shot of LES in Hamburg. Will be posting pics and videos all day if it unfolds. If its just south of here, I will be driving around chasing that band! Of course, unless it gets to dangerous because I do not have 4 wheel drive or a truck, just snow tires and a car. =/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I wonder what we usually need to get more of a single band event off Ontario (or a couple bands, etc.) rather than the multi-band spray stuff. That's about the only way we can actually get a several inch LES event here 125 + miles from the lake. From the sounds of it ...not much will be able to traverse the long distance here ... dry and 0F thankless wx seems likely. Normally I'd bow out of the LES conversation and stick to synoptic, but we are in a hopeless state this winter. 6 inches of snow total for November and December. Well, not knowing exactly where you live, my thoughts at this time would be more hopeful for you if you are on the southern portion of the metro area...ie.....if you're south of Broadway...I think you're in good shape! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Well, not knowing exactly where you live, my thoughts at this time would be more hopeful for you if you are on the southern portion of the metro area...ie.....if you're south of Broadway...I think you're in good shape! well i'm 2 miles north of Broadway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 from nws afd "THE HIGHER WINDS WILL ALSO EXTEND ANY LAKE SNOWS FROM LAKE ERIE WELL INLAND AND MAY BECOME ONE CONTINUOUS BAND FROM METRO BUFFALO TO NEAR ROCHESTER AND ONWARD TO WATERTOWN." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I wonder what we usually need to get more of a single band event off Ontario (or a couple bands, etc.) rather than the multi-band spray stuff. That's about the only way we can actually get a several inch LES event here 125 + miles from the lake. From the sounds of it ...not much will be able to traverse the long distance here ... dry and 0F thankless wx seems likely. Normally I'd bow out of the LES conversation and stick to synoptic, but we are in a hopeless state this winter. 6 inches of snow total for November and December. KBUF is at 3.5 inches and average 100 inches a year. They fairing far worse then you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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