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1/1-1/4 Lake Effect Snow Outbreak


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He gave me several tours through the NWS offices, he was an amazing guy. That was literally the best experience of my life! He was so detailed in explaining all my questions as well as patient. I learned more that day about the weather then the previous 10 years before!

You need to get out more.

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Euro is a considerably faster with the cold air moving in on Sunday night. Has the band over the southtowns overnight Sunday with 850s of -10c to -12c. 850 winds look due west while the surface flow is about 260. Still would like to see the low crank just a bit further west for the metro area to get it good.

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You guys have matching avatar's, that's precious.

Buff - Nice pull

On a serious note, looks like my parents might get one more good thump before they head for Tampa.

Thanks!

I had it first, ayuud and him both copied me! Come on guys, how many times do your parents need to tell you following after the crowd does not get you anywhere!

What do you Mets think about the LES with the latest Euro? Any good signs?

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Thanks!

I had it first, ayuud and him both copied me! Come on guys, how many times do your parents need to tell you following after the crowd does not get you anywhere!

What do you Mets think about the LES with the latest Euro? Any good signs?

No one copied you. Mine and Ayuud's are from different lake effect events then yours... We all live in buffalo ... I wonder why we would have pictures of major lake effect events hitting buffalo? hmm...

Trust me no one intended to copy you.

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Hey all.... I'm BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACCCKKK!

As for Tom, what great news. They couldn't find a more qualified, all-around nice guy to be the new winter WX expert. He was a blast to work with when I had to put together a winter weather special back in my TV days. One of the few people I've met that has his knowledge and can dumb it down to the simplest of terms for the general public to understand.

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Hey all.... I'm BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAACCCKKK!

As for Tom, what great news. They couldn't find a more qualified, all-around nice guy to be the new winter WX expert. He was a blast to work with when I had to put together a winter weather special back in my TV days. One of the few people I've met that has his knowledge and can dumb it down to the simplest of terms for the general public to understand.

Whoa....Been awhile, what have been doing since leaving 8?

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LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL INTENSIFY AS IT

SLOWLY LIFTS INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC THROUGH MONDAY. THIS

WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK ON SUNDAY. THEN AN

ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL DROP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. FOLLOWING A

WARM START TO THE NEW YEAR...THE WEATHER WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO

A MUCH MORE WINTRY PATTERN. OUR WEATHER WILL KEY ON THE PASSAGE OF

THE FRONTS...DIVIDING THE PERIOD INTO THREE DISTINCT PATTERNS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING (THE WARM UP)...SHORT RANGE

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN BRINGING WARMER AIR INTO

THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. WHILE INITIALLY THIS WILL REMAIN

ALOFT...EXPECT THE SSE FLOW TO DOWNSLOPE NORTH OF THE THRUWAY FROM

THE NY/PA LINE TO ROCHESTER...CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO RISE SATURDAY

NIGHT. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE EVENING...WITH RISING TEMPERATURES

OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY MORNING...EXPECT WARMER

AIR ALOFT TO MIX IN ALL AREAS...WITH WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE

40S LIKELY...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF RISE INTO THE 50S. FEEL MODELS HAVE

A POOR HANDLE ON THIS (INDEED MODELS HAVE HAD A POOR TRACK RECORD

CAPTURING SUCH TEMPERATURE RISES IN THE PAST). WILL CONTINUE TO GO

ABOVE MODEL TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE...PERHAPS EVEN A FEW DEGREES WARMER

THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES. OTHERWISE...DO

NOT EXPECT THE FRONT TO BE ACTIVE AT ALL...BUT WILL CARRY A MINIMAL

CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY (WINDY WITH WSW LAKE EFFECT

SNOWS)...TIMING THE FRONT IS RELATIVELY EASY SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING

VERY QUICKLY...MODEL ERRORS IN POSITION ONLY TRANSLATE INTO AN HOUR

OR TWO DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF WHEN IT CROSSES WESTERN NEW YORK. THE

FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH

THE INITIAL IMPACT AN INCREASE IN WINDS. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY WINDY

ACROSS THE NIAGARA FRONTIER...WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH LIKELY WEST

OF OLEAN TO ROCHESTER...AND ALSO NE OF LAKE ONTARIO IN OSWEGO AND

JEFFERSON COUNTIES. WINDS WILL BE LESS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH GUSTS

MORE IN THE 35 TO 40 MPH RANGE. GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH

MONDAY.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR

LAKE EFFECT SNOW AS TEMPERATURES DROP SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THERE IS

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW...SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN QUITE

UNCERTAIN. WHILE THE WIND DIRECTION IS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE

EFFECT...WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG WHICH WILL DISRUPT ORGANIZED

BANDS AND LIMIT RESIDENCE TIME. ALSO...INSTABILITY WILL INITIALLY BE

LIMITED WITH POST FRONT 850 MB TEMPS INITIALLY ONLY -8C...DROPPING

TO -12C BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS IS UNSTABLE...THERE IS SOME

CONCERN STRONG WINDS WILL LIMIT THE FORMATION OF A DISCRETE AND

INTENSE BAND. THIS SAID...LOCAL RESEARCH SHOWS THAT CLOSED 500 MB

TROFS TRACKING FROM NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC AND

ONTARIO ARE OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH HEAVY LAKE SNOWS FROM THE SOUTH

TOWNS TO CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE...DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK. WHILE

MODELS ARE NEARLY UNANIMOUS IN THE GENERAL FORECAST...THERE STILL IS

A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE TRACK OF THE 500 MB LOW AND STRENGTH

OF THE SURFACE LOW AMONG THE UKMET/NAM/GFS/GGEM WHICH WILL IMPACT

WIND DIRECTION AND INSTABILITY.

EXPECT LAKE SNOWS TO BE SLOW TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AS

TEMPERATURES DROP EXPECT A BAND TO DEVELOP NEAR THE SOUTH

TOWNS...EXTENDING INTO THE BOSTON HILLS AND CHAUTAUQUA RIDGE. LAKE

SNOWS WILL INTENSIFY AND SHIFT SOUTH TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE

SOUTHERN TIER ON MONDAY...AS WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY. OFF LAKE

ERIE...SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE MOST LIKELY IN SOUTHERN

ERIE...CHAUTAUQUA...NORTHERN CATTARAUGUS...AND WESTERN WYOMING

COUNTIES. A SIMILAR STORY WILL PLAY OUT ENE OF LAKE ONTARIO. LAKE

SNOWS SHOULD DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING...INTENSIFYING MONDAY AS WINDS

BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH A LONGER FETCH...AND AS 850 TEMPERATURES

DROP. EXPECT UPSLOPING TO PLAY A ROLE...ESPECIALLY HERE...WHERE

DRAMATIC RISES IN ELEVATION ON THE TUG HILL SHOULD ENHANCE LIFT

WITH JEFFERSON...LEWIS...AND NORTHERN OSWEGO MOST PRONE FOR HEAVY

SNOWS. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL DEPEND ON THE DEPEND ON THE DETAILS...WHICH

WILL BECOME MORE CERTAIN WITH TIME. FOR THE LOCATIONS

DISCUSSED...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWS...HOWEVER

SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS ON EXACT AMOUNTS. THIS IS A HIGH

CONFIDENCE IN WINDY CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD...WHICH WILL

IMPACT ALL AREAS...ESPECIALLY THOSE WITH SNOW ONGOING.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY (BITTERLY COLD WITH WIDESPREAD NW LAKE

SNOWS)...THE ARCTIC BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS

WESTERN NEW YORK ON MONDAY EVENING...HOWEVER 12Z RUNS OF THE

GFS/GGEM ARE NOT AS FAR SOUTH OR QUITE AS COLD AS THE 00Z RUNS. THIS

SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP MARKEDLY (GFS/EURO/GGEM MEAN OF ABOUT

-19C AT 850 MB) MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE LAKE INDUCED

INSTABILITY...AND LIKELY WILL BRING WIDESPREAD BUT DISORGANIZED LAKE

EFFECT SNOW FROM LAKE ONTARIO. UPSLOPING...AND UPSTREAM LAKES WILL

PLAY A ROLE HERE...BUT EXPECT MOST TO RECEIVE AT LEAST SOME SNOW

FROM THIS. WHATEVER DOES FALL WILL BE QUITE FLUFFY...WITH RATIOS OF

20:1 OR BETTER LIKELY. IN A NORTHWEST FLOW...TYPICALLY SE OF LAKE

ONTARIO TENDS TO SEE THE GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS...THOUGH IT IS TOO

FAR OUT TO GET TOO SPECIFIC WITH ANY CONFIDENCE. LAKE SNOWS WILL

CONTINUE TUESDAY...AND WHILE ACCUMULATIONS WILL VARY...IT WILL BE

BITTERLY COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE TEENS.

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