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1/1-1/4 Lake Effect Snow Outbreak


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Sunshine through clouds here and a very light snow or flurries filtering down. 10.8F. I'll go with 1.4" for yesterday/overnight's total. That was about all that could have been expected here so I'm pleased.

bust-a-roo. About an inch around Skaneateles, NY....a bit more in Auburn which is interesting because Auburn usually gets shafted, but there's a small/weak band sitting over us right now

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bust-a-roo. About an inch around Skaneateles, NY....a bit more in Auburn which is interesting because Auburn usually gets shafted, but there's a small/weak band sitting over us right now

Before I moved up here Champy, I remember walking to school through a half foot of snow off Cayuga lake once in a while if the winds were out of the north, northwest in Ithaca. The northeast hills just south of Cornell University used to gather quite a bit of extra snow in the course of a winter...Just added up my seasonal totals for the season..3 storms over a half foot so far and approx. 31 inches this season.

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Before I moved up here Champy, I remember walking to school through a half foot of snow off Cayuga lake once in a while if the winds were out of the north, northwest in Ithaca. The northeast hills just south of Cornell University used to gather quite a bit of extra snow in the course of a winter...Just added up my seasonal totals for the season..3 storms over a half foot so far and approx. 31 inches this season.

that's a ton more than us! Yea - they were discussing the NNW flow can sometimes lead to Finger Lake enhanced lake-effect snow, which would be interesting to see. Looks like the remainders of the LE in CNY has fallen apart...

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You know its a bad winter when even the lakes can't get it right. We had a few bands out here last night and this morning, maybe an inch, maybe a little less. Its something anyway.

Is it spring yet? Epic gigantic humongous bust.

But in all seriousness, screw this winter.

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I recieved 0.8" during the day today from those bands moving through leaving me with a grand total from this event at 1.9" and my seasonal total at 5.8"

looks like some accumulating snow possible for the metro for tommorow,maybe if everything goes right we could pick up couple inches..

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that shortwave looks worst and worse each model run...meh

4.4 degrees outside!! NOO!! LAKE IS GOING TO FREEZE!!

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day1_psnow_gt_04.gif

After OSU's call with the last storm, whatever he says goes until proven otherwise! =P

Up to 11.1 inches on the year, still WAY below normal and we could be looking at snow records if this continues for another couple weeks and the lake freezes (IF).

This is interesting for tomorrow however... (Hour 36 WRF)

wrf.png

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4.4 degrees outside!! NOO!! LAKE IS GOING TO FREEZE!!

http://www.hpc.ncep....psnow_gt_04.gif

After OSU's call with the last storm, whatever he says goes until proven otherwise! =P

Up to 11.1 inches on the year, still WAY below normal and we could be looking at snow records if this continues for another couple weeks and the lake freezes (IF).

This is interesting for tomorrow however... (Hour 36 WRF)

wrf.png

I don't think we're in any danger of the lake freezing in January. The pattern for the next 10 days or so does not look cold. Euro ensembles are showing neutral 850 temp anomalies in the next 5 days with about +2c at 850 at the day 6-10 range. WIth the lack of snow cover that could mean slightly higher temp departures than the 850 temp anomalies would otherwise mean.

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I don't think we're in any danger of the lake freezing in January. The pattern for the next 10 days or so does not look cold. Euro ensembles are showing neutral 850 temp anomalies in the next 5 days with about +2c at 850 at the day 6-10 range. WIth the lack of snow cover that could mean slightly higher temp departures than the 850 temp anomalies would otherwise mean.

do you see any hints of a pattern change in the long range?

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I cross country skied there about 10 years ago....awesome spot. Used to be a cross country ski resort there....think it closed.

SVT, check your pm's. The cross country area was Salmon Hills located on the north side of the res. in the Noble Shores community. It has been through several hands over the past 10 years, but nobody could make a go of it. Do you remember the tubing hill and yurts there? The property was recently purchased again by someone who intendes to convert the facility to snowmobiling I believe.

Through the awful December, the area was really without snow for only a day or two. That said, the rez. was still partially unfrozen this past weekend.

At home in Western Onondaga, we had 6" from the LES.

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do you see any hints of a pattern change in the long range?

yeah...around Jan. 13th. We should see a -EPO...breaking down the stubborn AK vortex and a weakening of the AO.

This would lead to more significant and longer lasting cold air intrusions. There are also some signs of a -PNA which could lead to a gradient pattern...and some decent synoptic systems.

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yeah...around Jan. 13th.  We should see a -EPO...breaking down the stubborn AK vortex and a weakening of the AO.  

This would lead to more significant and longer lasting cold air intrusions.  There are also some signs of a -PNA which could lead to a gradient pattern...and some decent synoptic systems.

hopefully we can get some decent synoptic storms by then..

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