rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 josh nichols on whec 10, rochester, just said he wouldn't be surprised if some thunder occured in this event (in rochester!). I've never witnessed thunder snow, and my life isn't complete. the connection to G.Bay is impressive. wind direction seems ideal too. But pattern recognition (by me) would suggest that the winds are too strong and too w for the rochester northern suburbs to get into super snow totals. in the past we've done well with softer more northerly winds, esp with some synoptic help from micro lows that move west to east across ontario. I'll be happily shocked if we get more than six total outta this event. L. Ontario snow along the south shore continues to be almost 'unforecastable'. if we had some oragraphy it would be much easier. but flat is flat. good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Having a nice little squall move through the Albany area with some brief moderate snowfall and medium size dendrites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I remember Josh when we used to post the wx observations to the wx-obs sne mailing list back around 1994-95 and also on on ne.weather usenet bb. I guess he was still in high school back then. Ne.weather sort of gave way to wwbb which was followed by easternus.wx and the current incarnation of americanwx. josh nichols on whec 10, rochester, just said he wouldn't be surprised if some thunder occured in this event (in rochester!). I've never witnessed thunder snow, and my life isn't complete. the connection to G.Bay is impressive. wind direction seems ideal too. But pattern recognition (by me) would suggest that the winds are too strong and too w for the rochester northern suburbs to get into super snow totals. in the past we've done well with softer more northerly winds, esp with some synoptic help from micro lows that move west to east across ontario. I'll be happily shocked if we get more than six total outta this event. L. Ontario snow along the south shore continues to be almost 'unforecastable'. if we had some oragraphy it would be much easier. but flat is flat. good luck everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 josh nichols on whec 10, rochester, just said he wouldn't be surprised if some thunder occured in this event (in rochester!). I've never witnessed thunder snow, and my life isn't complete. the connection to G.Bay is impressive. wind direction seems ideal too. But pattern recognition (by me) would suggest that the winds are too strong and too w for the rochester northern suburbs to get into super snow totals. in the past we've done well with softer more northerly winds, esp with some synoptic help from micro lows that move west to east across ontario. I'll be happily shocked if we get more than six total outta this event. L. Ontario snow along the south shore continues to be almost 'unforecastable'. if we had some oragraphy it would be much easier. but flat is flat. good luck everyone! How are the conditions up there in roc? Radar shows the band dropping in now but i know radar always overshoots roc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 How are the conditions up there in roc? Radar shows the band dropping in now but i know radar always overshoots roc. still just getting light snow shower. And You are CORRECT the buffalo radar often misses the fluffy LES that often gets us in northern monroe county and especially west wayne county. I remember yrs ago they wanted to put the wny radar in batavia but some freaks thought it would give them cancer and the NWS acquiesced, therefore the current kbuf location. Probably one of the only areas in the nation that doesn't have full radar coverage. And with the budget cuts coming, nothing will change soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 How are the conditions up there in roc? Radar shows the band dropping in now but i know radar always overshoots roc. I'm on the east side of the city and there's only flurries now...looks like it should pick up a bit soon. I'm waiting for the bands to get organized in the new NW flow. Too bad that Georgian Bay connection looks like it's going to help W of ROC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Mike Sidel is in Sherman, NY . Live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 Went out and measured. Have. 8" On the concrete ect... 1.5" On the gr@ss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Snowing pretty good in herkimer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Went out and measured. Have. 8" On the concrete ect... 1.5" On the gr@ss I have a feeling that georgian bay band is going to be hitting the northeastern suburbs of buffalo you can see it drifting south and west every frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Logan (Rick), here's your 3-6 hour opportunity to cash in....hope you can squeeze out a couple inches! 1/4 mile vis here in L'pool, with a solid 2" on the ground in last 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Notice Anything Odd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 Notice Anything Odd? Absolutely beyond frusterating. Odd? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Real nice Georgian Bay connection going right through Toronto. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=WKR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 3" in Phoenix, Band moving south. 1" to 2" per hour rates in yellows(9WSYR). Big, fat flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Thanks for the well wishes. It has a long trip here, but taking that classic route through Herkimer and trying to extend ESE to reach me. Logan (Rick), here's your 3-6 hour opportunity to cash in....hope you can squeeze out a couple inches! 1/4 mile vis here in L'pool, with a solid 2" on the ground in last 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Notice Anything Odd? Now you know how it has felt in rochester for the last year. Buf usually gets its big LES in late november thru xmas. Looks like ya missed yur window this yr. maybe we'll get an appalachian creeper that stays west enough to keep from redevolping on the coast and far enough east to keep ya all cold. or maybe, L. Ontario can help ya this yr. BTW, starting to snow light to moderate (finally) in north rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 For those of us to the S. and SE of Ontario, you can see via the latest IR loop and the BUF radar (just switched to clear air mode) the beginnings of the ignition about to take place over all of the lake.....the moist cold air BEHIND the arctic front is about to enter the lake from the north. Even as the current lakeshore band falls off the lake, new llv convergence will rapidly take place and organize with such prime llv instability advecting in. Lake should be cranking up here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Now you know how it has felt in rochester for the last year. Buf usually gets its big LES in late november thru xmas. Looks like ya missed yur window this yr. maybe we'll get an appalachian creeper that stays west enough to keep from redevolping on the coast and far enough east to keep ya all cold. or maybe, L. Ontario can help ya this yr. BTW, starting to snow light to moderate (finally) in north rochester. I still have faith in lake erie. I received 5 inches from the warning event earlier this year. As long as Erie is open, I have faith in the possiblitiy of a huge storm. I'm not huge fan of synoptic systems. They never produce the way there predicted to... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted January 3, 2012 Author Share Posted January 3, 2012 I still have faith in lake erie. I received 5 inches from the warning event earlier this year. As long as Erie is open, I have faith in the possiblitiy of a huge storm. I'm not huge fan of synoptic systems. They never produce the way there predicted to... Neither do lake effect events this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 LEK, I see that happening(cool stuff!). Radar should fill in quickly I would think. I can recall a few multiple band, spray jobs that over-performed with large flakes. 12+ in a couple over the years. Could this be one of them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 For those of us to the S. and SE of Ontario, you can see via the latest IR loop and the BUF radar (just switched to clear air mode) the beginnings of the ignition about to take place over all of the lake.....the moist cold air BEHIND the arctic front is about to enter the lake from the north. Even as the current lakeshore band falls off the lake, new llv convergence will rapidly take place and organize with such prime llv instability advecting in. Lake should be cranking up here shortly. I sent them a message earlier on facebook requesting them to switch into clear-air mode. It definitely helps bring out the subtleties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 For those of us to the S. and SE of Ontario, you can see via the latest IR loop and the BUF radar (just switched to clear air mode) the beginnings of the ignition about to take place over all of the lake.....the moist cold air BEHIND the arctic front is about to enter the lake from the north. Even as the current lakeshore band falls off the lake, new llv convergence will rapidly take place and organize with such prime llv instability advecting in. Lake should be cranking up here shortly. i hope you're correct. i also expect some convergence along the south shore. this has been frustratingly slow to crank up in northern monroe. the radar looks good but we are only getting about 1/4 inch/ HR snow rate At this time. come on moisture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I sent them a message earlier on facebook requesting them to switch into clear-air mode. It definitely helps bring out the subtleties. Excellent! For those that have followed LES long enough, those subtleties are important to "probe" the environment. Another tool is to check out the Canadian radars...and not just King City....but the ones to the north...if there are ANY echoes propogating, it means there is moisture in "them there" Arctic airmassses....which is gasoline for warm lakes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StatenWx Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Anyone have a good site for model maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I sent them a message earlier on facebook requesting them to switch into clear-air mode. It definitely helps bring out the subtleties. i'm not sure which i like better. not sure what the difference is, i always thaught it picked up the low clouds on this mode. they seem to be the only people in the NWS org. that use it. it does help to show the streamers originating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 LEK, I see that happening(cool stuff!). Radar should fill in quickly I would think. I can recall a few multiple band, spray jobs that over-performed with large flakes. 12+ in a couple over the years. Could this be one of them? The meso models seem to like a decent dump for most of the areas S and SE of Ontario...with some preferred NW/SE running valley areas (ie FL's) to squeeze out a bit more. My ambitious earlier call of 3+' for the Tug looks to fall substantially short (Winds appear to have been too fast to get an optimum band) and they will most likely only see some light orographic type stuff (with the non-lake moisture) advecting in from the NNW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Neither do lake effect events this year. But they have...4-7 in the storm earlier this year...Lockport n NT got 5-6 inches, I got 5 as well. NWS predicted a trace from Buffalo North for last nights LES, as the MET on the WIVB Blog pointed out, only us southtowners got Screwed last night not you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 I just measured 4-3/4" just to your south in clay 3.5" here as of a few minutes ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Anyone have a good site for model maps? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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