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1/1-1/4 Lake Effect Snow Outbreak


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Well, somehow "less than one inch" turned into 8.5" last night. No complaints here! :D My southern Chautauqua County band worked out last night.

Another 1 to 2 feet in the forecast and it seems my little band is reforming.

Lol nice i like your profile pic a minecraft pig good choice my good sir

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i'd say about 2" in fredonia,btw the lake erie band looks weak on the radar..

http://141.238.49.9/...y=1325513770509

I only saw a few radar images from last night, but a few miles away and up the hill in Cassadaga they probably did much better.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

915 AM EST MON JAN 02 2012

***********************6 HOUR SNOWFALL***********************

LOCATION 6 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...WYOMING COUNTY...

WARSAW 4.0 712 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER

**********************24 HOUR SNOWFALL**********************

LOCATION 24 HOUR TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT

NEW YORK

...ALLEGANY COUNTY...

5 SW WEST ALMOND 1.1 700 AM 1/02 COCORAHS

...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...

SE WEST VALLEY 7.0 600 AM 1/02 COCORAHS

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...

2 E JAMESTOWN 8.6 600 AM 1/02 COCORAHS

ENE SHERMAN 8.3 600 AM 1/02 COCORAHS

...ERIE COUNTY...

2 SE GLENWOOD 3.5 700 AM 1/02 COCORAHS

2 S WALES 1.0 600 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER

2 NE BOSTON 1.0 600 AM 1/02 COCORAHS

2 SE WEST SENECA 0.5 600 AM 1/02 COCORAHS

ESE KENMORE 0.3 630 AM 1/02 COCORAHS

1 N CLARENCE CENTER 0.2 600 AM 1/02 COCORAHS

2 SSW BLASDELL 0.1 620 AM 1/02 COCORAHS

WSW HAMBURG 0.1 600 AM 1/02 COCORAHS

...GENESEE COUNTY...

2 NE STAFFORD 0.9 600 AM 1/02 COCORAHS

...LEWIS COUNTY...

HIGHMARKET 0.3 450 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER

...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...

4 WSW DANSVILLE 2.0 500 AM 1/02 COCORAHS

1 ENE DANSVILLE 1.3 645 AM 1/02 COCORAHS

AVON 0.9 625 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER

...MONROE COUNTY...

3 NNW ROCHESTER 1.0 600 AM 1/02 COCORAHS

2 NE WEBSTER T 700 PM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER

...ONTARIO COUNTY...

3 W GENEVA 0.1 700 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER

...WYOMING COUNTY...

6 SW WARSAW 5.0 600 AM 1/02 CO-OP OBSERVER

PERRY T 900 PM 1/01 CO-OP OBSERVER

The I-86 corridor looks to be the winner last night.

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i'd say about 2" in fredonia,btw the Lakewood erie band looks weak on the radar..

http://141.238.49.9/axis-cgi/mjpg/video.cgi?resolution=CIF&dummy=1325513770509

what we gotta remember is snow isn't as reflective as rain on radar and the beam from the radar is nearly 5000 ft off the ground by the time it reaches southern chat and Catt counties so it could be overshooting some of the snow. Just my thoughts.

BTW holiday valley picked up 6"+ and they're getting hit pretty good right now too. Sure hope they get a few more feet. After this winter a 3 foot storm total and conditions for them to make snow would leave them with a good 30-60" base for when the weather does warm up.

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Nice west to east squall coming off G bay headed towards Toronto is it marking the start of th NW flow?

FYI - not sure what radar you're using, but this is one of the better local radars I use to track snow in S. Ontario. Should be helpful over the next couple days to track what's headed our way upstream from G Bay: http://www.wivb.com/subindex/weather/radar

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what we gotta remember is snow isn't as reflective as rain on radar and the beam from the radar is nearly 5000 ft off the ground by the time it reaches southern chat and Catt counties so it could be overshooting some of the snow. Just my thoughts.

This is often true. Sometimes we can have +SN on <10 dBZ returns. Kind of wish they put a radar site in Erie :P

Few webcams near where I live:

http://www.eastlakewoodweather.com/camera50.html (This one is poor quality)

http://www.eastlakewoodweather.com/camera51.html (Facing southeast)

http://www.eastlakewoodweather.com/camera52.html (Facing west toward the Chautauqua Mall)

I somewhat doubt I'll see anything more until tonight.

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This is often true. Sometimes we can have +SN on <10 dBZ returns. Kind of wish they put a radar site in Erie :P

Few webcams near where I live:

http://www.eastlakewoodweather.com/camera50.html (This one is poor quality)

http://www.eastlakewoodweather.com/camera51.html (Facing southeast)

http://www.eastlakewoodweather.com/camera52.html (Facing west toward the Chautauqua Mall)

I somewhat doubt I'll see anything more until tonight.

I've thought that so many times! They need a radar in Erie and a radar in Rochester. Thanks for the links as well.
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one thing i noticed with this upstream bands is that they usually intensify a bit when they move through grand island..

that's like 6-8" for the city and the northtowns of arctic fluff verbatim lol

The Georgian Bay connection sets up perfectly on that run to nail that area.

I was probably foolhardy yesterday in saying less than 1" for BUF metro for the entire event...I should have just said through Monday afternoon.

I feel pretty comfortable forecasting 1-3" for BUF metro tonight with the possibility for more if bands set-up favorably.

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that's like 6-8" for the city and the northtowns of arctic fluff verbatim lol

The Georgian Bay connection sets up perfectly on that run to nail that area.

I was probably foolhardy yesterday in saying less than 1" for BUF metro for the entire event...I should have just said through Monday afternoon.

I feel pretty comfortable forecasting 1-3" for BUF metro tonight with the possibility for more if bands set-up favorably.

last year they received almost a foot out of that one Georgia bay band.

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Thanks for the contribution from across the pond. :)

I have a friend who lives in some higher ground in northern Lincs..below Hull. He occasionally gets squalls of snow off the North Sea on a cold easterly flow such as when the -NAO results in a Scandinavian High bridging across. I suppose it's a similar case of cold air traversing the warmer waters. Tough to get that set-up there, but fun when it happens I'm sure.

Got relatives in Roscommon, Ireland and they told me that they had snow on the ground for several weeks last winter and the prior one. That was an anomalous pattern and this year normal damp Irish chill I think.

I'd just like to say I am commenting from Durham in the United Kingdom and cannot believe how interesting your climate is! We have been getting temperatures in the mid-50's for the last week also but today it's now 34F and cooled down to the average.

I'm also amazed at how much snow you guys get, and expect. We have got just 1" so far this season after getting 16" lying last winter and 13" lying in 09/10.

However you do have a still unfrozen lake erie (to my knowledge) and very cold air, approaching -25c 850's at times. At 7am EST, 850mb temps are projected to be around -8c to -10c for much of upstate ny and pennsylvania. The 850mb wind dir steering them showers/squalls should be NW/WNW at the time. By 4pm EST we have -14c to -16c 850's over the lakes, with -10c 850's widespread over upstate ny and pennsylvania.

The coldest 850mb temps are set to be tomorrow evening for you guys, between 1-4pm EST the euro model projects -22c uppers across upstate ny with pockets of -24c uppers.

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All the action is well north so far...but the BTV WRF does show the banding (25 dbz) getting down to this area after 7 PM tonight. What's left of it would be in my vicinity (and more so around Herkimer, etc.) until the early morning hours then ...before the NW to NNW flow shifts it all well south.

looks like tug hill east to old forge and speculator are getting nice LES right now

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Muskoka ..north of Lake Simcoe must get a lot. Nice area I have heard and probably lots of great x country skiing.

I was gonna go camping up there there with the cousins from Allegany County like 20 years ago, but it fell through and I never have got to that area.

I've always wondered how much the areas east and southeast of Georgian Bay and Huron averaged per year...got to be like 200"? maybe more?

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