lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Good luck to all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 KALB THIS WILL SIGNAL A PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE REGION AS ARCTIC AIRFILTERS SOUTHWARD FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK AS RIDGE AXIS BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. NCEP MODEL SUITE ALONG WITH INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE COLD ADVECTION WILL START SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS WE SETTLE DOWN THOSE 850MB TEMPS INTO THE SUB MINUS 20C. IN ADDITION...FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN CYCLONIC AND RELATIVELY MOIST PROFILES TO KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND SOME SQUALLS DOWNWIND OF LAKE ONTARIO. RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REESTABLISH ITSELF FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TOUGH TO PIN DOWN WHO WILL RECEIVE ACCUMULATING SNOW...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS OCCUR FOR THE ENTIRE REGION APPEARS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ALY&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 KBGM MONDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...A REINFORCING SHOT...WITH THE TRUE ARCTIC AIR...WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. IN ADDITION TO DROPPING OUR TEMPS FARTHER...OUR WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL LINE UP WITH 850 TEMPS PLUNGING TO -20C/-23C TO PRODUCE A WIDE SPRAY OF LAKE EFFECT OFF BOTH LAKE ONTARIO AND THE FINGER LAKES. THE COMBINATION OF WIND AND COLD AIR WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR OR BELOW ZERO STARTING EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY. IN ADDITION TO LOW WIND CHILL VALUES...MOST OF OUR AREA WILL SEE LAKE EFFECT SNOW RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS ONE MIGHT THINK...ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE (VERY COLD AIR)...ALONG WITH A SHORTER FETCH (NORTHWEST FLOW VS. WESTERLY FLOW). WITH THAT SAID WITH SUCH COLD AIR IN PLACE...AND HELP FROM THE FINGER LAKES...A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF CNY...THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY...INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF PA. WITH TEMPS THIS COLD...IT WON`T TAKE MUCH QPF TO GET A DECENT AMOUNT OF FLUFF. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BGM&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 KBUF TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY FALL BELOW FREEZING SUNDAY NIGHT...AS 850MB TEMPS FALL AS WELL. EVENTUALLY TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN MODEST LEVELS OF LAKE INDUCED CAPE ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AS STRONG POST FRONTAL WINDS SHIFT FROM SW TO W. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN THE ONSET OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS E OF THE LAKES SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL GROW PROGRESSIVELY COLDER. GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACT WIND DIRECTION...BUT THE MEAN FLOW SHOULD GENERALLY BE NORTHWESTERLY. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL REACH WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 12Z GFS/EURO/GGEM ALL FORECAST 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO -20 TO -24C ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. OUTSIDE OF THE BITTERLY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER DUE TO WIND CHILL...THIS ALSO IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT SO FAR THIS SEASON. WHILE THE WIND DIRECTION IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE IN TERMS OF FETCH...THE SHEAR INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY OUTWEIGH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE INDUCED CAPE. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN ALOFT...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE...AND PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY FOR EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WHICH ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. SNOW SHOULD BE VERY FLUFFY...WITH 30:1 RATIOS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THIS SAID...NOT ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW FROM THIS PATTERN. TYPICALLY...SE OF LAKE ONTARIO (WAYNE/OSWEGO/CAYUGA) AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL RECEIVE THE MOST SNOW IN THIS PATTERN. HOWEVER...THIS ALSO BEARS WATCHING ALONG THE ENTIRE LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHERN SHORES...INCLUDING NIAGARA...ORLEANS...AND MONROE COUNTIES. BASED ON THIS...WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS...AND FOR BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. BOTH GFS/EUROPEAN BUILD HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. IF THIS PANS OUT...THIS SHOULD END LAKE SNOWS TUESDAY NIGHT...AS OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS OR COLDER ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN NEW YORK. ANOTHER (BUT LESS SIGNIFICANT) SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...WHICH MAY BRING A SW FLOW AHEAD OF IT. WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS NE OF THE LAKES FOR THIS...AS TEMPERATURES MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR LAKE SNOWS AHEAD OF THIS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL USHER IN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Sounds like more of a threat south of the Mohawk Valley if the winds are true northwest. The far western Mohawk Valley could still be good, but then nw winds tends spray it across the Susquehanna region, Cooperstown, the western Catskills, etc. Hopefully we get some period with a more WNW trajectory before it all just settles south for the duration. KBGM http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 18z gfs shows some backing on Wednesday,it also has -9c on Sunday when the winds are from wsw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 From my untrained eye the GFS and the NAM both send the cold front through much faster then earlier models. This allows the chance for metro and immediate suburbs for decent shot at some LES before drifting south Monday into Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Sunday night into Monday looks good for the metro per the 0z gfs,the only problem is those marginal 850 temps only -7-9... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 With the Lake around 40 degrees, and the full fetch of the lake, I still believe we will be able to generate some LES Sunday into Monday morning. Would like to see what OSU thinks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 With the Lake around 40 degrees, and the full fetch of the lake, I still believe we will be able to generate some LES Sunday into Monday morning. Would like to see what OSU thinks... give me some time to look at the bufkit profiles etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 NAM looks okay for the metro area but not great...considerably better than the gfs, though. We can hope that the NAM is keying on the lake-aggregate trough feature causing the winds to stay backed over the lower lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Enjoy the five days of cold and hopefully some LES... Because after that Pacific air takes over and the CONUS torches yet again. Then we'll get a nice rainstorm followed by more stormless wx cold probably. NAM looks okay for the metro area but not great...considerably better than the gfs, though. We can hope that the NAM is keying on the lake-aggregate trough feature causing the winds to stay backed over the lower lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 NAM looks okay for the metro area but not great...considerably better than the gfs, though. We can hope that the NAM is keying on the lake-aggregate trough feature causing the winds to stay backed over the lower lakes. Thanks! I know a slight shift in any wind direction can have a huge impact on where the band sets up and it has to be difficult if not impossible to pinpoint this beyond a day or two. We can always hope for a few shortwaves to swing there way through to help us back the winds as well. Also, I know the NWS discussions have mentioned this several times...The warm lakes have a tendency to cause the bands to lift farther north then originally thought in the beginning part of the year when lakes are really warm, that might help as well this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Euro is still extremely cold for Tuesday. -30 at SLK on Wednesday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Euro is still extremely cold for Tuesday. -30 at SLK on Wednesday morning? Hows the Euro look for LES potential? Is it going to be to cold for proper dendrite growth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Hows the Euro look for LES potential? Is it going to be to cold for proper dendrite growth? it isn't that cold until Tuesday...most of the event occurs on Monday. Still doesn't look very good for the metro area on Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Enjoy the five days of cold and hopefully some LES... Because after that Pacific air takes over and the CONUS torches yet again. Then we'll get a nice rainstorm followed by more stormless wx cold probably. is the euro still showing that torch after next week's cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Even though the nws didn't update their long range afd,they mention in their short range disscusion that the LES will start by sunday afternoon,and also the winds could reach advisory level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Sounds like more of a threat south of the Mohawk Valley if the winds are true northwest. The far western Mohawk Valley could still be good, but then nw winds tends spray it across the Susquehanna region, Cooperstown, the western Catskills, etc. Hopefully we get some period with a more WNW trajectory before it all just settles south for the duration. Yeah 290 degrees seems like the right angle for us in Otsego County. I would like a bunch of fluff but the thought of it torching off a few days later is just too painful. What a depressing winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 12 NAM looks great for South towns for nearly 12+ hours under the LES band! 3rd run in a row showing that! It brings it up near the Metro as well for a short time.Last years December 1-3 event was not supposed to make it as far north as it did, some 5-10 more north then was predicted. Something to think about with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 12 NAM looks great for South towns for nearly 12+ hours under the LES band! 3rd run in a row showing that! It brings it up near the Metro as well for a short time.Last years December 1-3 event was not supposed to make it as far north as it did, some 5-10 more north then was predicted. Something to think about with this one. yeah the 06z and 12z gfs and nam trends have been favorable for BUF and the southtowns. We need the superior Euro to come around though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Don Paul just posted this on the WIVB Blog. "Actually, we’ll put Wednesday aside for now and focus on the nearterm. The NAM shows a favorable bndry lyr flow going into Sunday evening for potential significant LES near the metro area. Moisture is a little limited, so there’s that question. But if the band organizes with decent convergence despite the strong winds (probably Advisory criteria), we could see whiteouts Sunday night." Whats BufKIT has to say about the LES? Isn't the the preferred model developed internally by the Buffalo NWS Tom Niziol who is now going to be the winter weather expert for the weather channel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Don Paul just posted this on the WIVB Blog. "Actually, we’ll put Wednesday aside for now and focus on the nearterm. The NAM shows a favorable bndry lyr flow going into Sunday evening for potential significant LES near the metro area. Moisture is a little limited, so there’s that question. But if the band organizes with decent convergence despite the strong winds (probably Advisory criteria), we could see whiteouts Sunday night." Whats BufKIT has to say about the LES? Isn't the the preferred model developed internally by the Buffalo NWS Tom Niziol who is now going to be the winter weather expert for the weather channel? what?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 what?? "BIG NEWS about our M.I.C. Tom Niziol. Tom is taking early retirement from a 30 year career with the NWS on the 31st to join The Weather Channel as their new Winter Weather Specialist. TWC could not possibly have made a better choice! I was proud and privileged that my 28 year buddy asked me to be a reference, but I think Tom already had the job nailed when a TWC exec and I chatted about him." Congratulations to Tom! Going to be seeing him on TV quite often!!! =) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 "BIG NEWS about our M.I.C. Tom Niziol. Tom is taking early retirement from a 30 year career with the NWS on the 31st to join The Weather Channel as their new Winter Weather Specialist. TWC could not possibly have made a better choice! I was proud and privileged that my 28 year buddy asked me to be a reference, but I think Tom already had the job nailed when a TWC exec and I chatted about him." Congratulations to Tom! Going to be seeing him on TV quite often!!! =) where did you find that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Don Paul WIVB weather blog from Channel 4, he talked about it on the air as well. Tom used Don as a reference for the job at TWC. Pretty awesome eh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 "BIG NEWS about our M.I.C. Tom Niziol. Tom is taking early retirement from a 30 year career with the NWS on the 31st to join The Weather Channel as their new Winter Weather Specialist. TWC could not possibly have made a better choice! I was proud and privileged that my 28 year buddy asked me to be a reference, but I think Tom already had the job nailed when a TWC exec and I chatted about him." Congratulations to Tom! Going to be seeing him on TV quite often!!! =) Always liked Tom, he helped me out a bunch on a poster I did regarding lightning in lake effect snow bands while I was in Grad School. And let me come hang around the office a few times when I was job hunting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Don Paul WIVB weather blog from Channel 4, he talked about it on the air as well. Tom used Don as a reference for the job at TWC. Pretty awesome eh! can you post a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 can you post a link? http://blogs.wivb.com/2011/12/26/more-complex-pattern-this-week-and-wintrier-at-times-too/comment-page-31/#comments Page 31-35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Always liked Tom, he helped me out a bunch on a poster I did regarding lightning in lake effect snow bands while I was in Grad School. And let me come hang around the office a few times when I was job hunting. He gave me several tours through the NWS offices, he was an amazing guy. That was literally the best experience of my life! He was so detailed in explaining all my questions as well as patient. I learned more that day about the weather then the previous 10 years before! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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