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Lake Effect Snow


Jim Martin

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Good luck Harry...and as well to all involved with getting some LES. :thumbsup:

Thanks.. :) Should hopefully be much better times ahead for you and everyone else outside the LES belts especially now that the MJO looks to atleast make it to the phase 6/7 line. It can crash and burn etc all it wants now that it is out of phase 4-5.

For those further east towards the Detroit area. From GRR..

THE MEAN LOW LEVEL FLOW IS CURRENTLY W/NW AND THIS SHOULD BACK A

LITTLE CLOSER TO W THIS EVENING AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA.

THIS WILL ALLOW MORE OF THE AREA TO SEE THE SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY...

ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONG FLOW IN THE CLOUD LAYER. THIS WILL BE THE

BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR INLAND LOCATIONS TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS.

As strong as the flow is and the radar looking pretty decent already i think these bands should have no problems making the trip across the state and dumping a quick inch or two ( maybe more in some spots? ) out that way.

Good luck to everyone else getting the LES as well.

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When the heavy snow showers come through, the first of which was about an hour ago, you can barely see across the street. Ground is now white nearly covering the grass here in Elkhart, and wind gusting to 39 mph. Going to be an interesting couple of days to remind me that this is indeed winter, even if it is LES.

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Yeah, I really want to go up there but I have to work at 7AM Tuesday and I can't take the chance of getting stuck and not making it back in time.

You could always park yourself at the southern edge of the expected heavy band to ensure a quick escape. I'm not sure if you want to do that though or if you'd rather go all in.

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You could always park yourself at the southern edge of the expected heavy band to ensure a quick escape. I'm not sure if you want to do that though or if you'd rather go all in.

I thought about that, but if I'm going up, I want to be right in the middle of it. I'd like to experience 2" an hour rates for several hours. It's not dangerous like core punching, you just might be stuck there for awhile.

Hey, IWX, I get the LES events up here in Elkhart county, you get the flash flood emergency management events down in Huntington County, fair enough? :whistle:

Lol, fair enough. I've got to tell you,, I enjoy heavy snow waaay more than flooding. In fact, flooding is one of my least favorite weather events. But it seems that we've had more than our share around here lately. In the meantime, enjoy your "fake" snow. I've never understood that argument. To me, snow is snow, no matter the synoptic or mesoscale cause.

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Can't tell what I'm looking at here because it's changing and developing so rapidly, but is that LES building off the lake?

http://www.weatherof...x_e.html?id=WSO

Also, we just changed over to big snow flakes here. I'm just a hair northwest of Kitchener on the radar map.

You enjoy your 10-16" snow tommorow while SSC and I will get squat like we were expecting alot anyways :cry::lol:

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..TIME...   ...EVENT...	  ...CITY LOCATION...	 ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....	  ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
	    ..REMARKS..
0906 PM	 SNOW			 CHARLOTTE			   42.56N 84.84W
01/01/2012  M0.5 INCH	    EATON			  MI   TRAINED SPOTTER
	    LOTS OF ICE ON THE ROADS.
0916 PM	 SNOW			 BALDWIN				 43.90N 85.85W
01/01/2012  E3.0 INCH	    LAKE			   MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT
0916 PM	 SNOW			 1 E HOLLAND			 42.78N 86.09W
01/01/2012  M1.0 INCH	    OTTAWA			 MI   TRAINED SPOTTER
0917 PM	 SNOW			 EAST GRAND RAPIDS	   42.94N 85.61W
01/01/2012  M2.5 INCH	    KENT			   MI   COCORAHS
0921 PM	 SNOW			 BIG RAPIDS			  43.70N 85.48W
01/01/2012  M2.0 INCH	    MECOSTA		    MI   LAW ENFORCEMENT
0951 PM	 SNOW			 6 E KALAMAZOO		   42.28N 85.48W
01/01/2012  M2.8 INCH	    KALAMAZOO		  MI   COCORAHS
0951 PM	 SNOW			 GRANDVILLE			  42.91N 85.76W
01/01/2012  M1.5 INCH	    KENT			   MI   NWS EMPLOYEE
1023 PM	 SNOW			 NORTON SHORES		   43.16N 86.26W
01/01/2012  M1.5 INCH	    MUSKEGON		   MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

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I'm not sure exactly whether this snow is LES or leftover moisture from the synoptic storm, but in BG I've picked up about 3/4" of snow already, with another moderate band just ending a minute ago. Around 6PM we had very heavy snow on the west side of town. CLE calling for 1-3" tomorrow as well.

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Mesoscale discussion 1:

post-525-0-31750200-1325484745.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0001

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1137 PM CST SUN JAN 01 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS NERN OH NEAR LE...EXTREME NWRN

PA...EXTREME WRN NY.

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 020537Z - 020930Z

OCNL SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 2 INCHES/HOUR ARE POSSIBLE AS LAKE-EFFECT

BAND ORGANIZES OVER FAR WRN NY AND EXTREME NWRN PA THROUGH ABOUT

07Z...THEN SHIFTS SWD AT OBLIQUE ANGLE ALONG SRN SHORE. PRIND RATES

NEAR 2 INCHES/HOUR SHOULD BECOME MORE BRIEF/ISOLATED AFTER ABOUT

09Z. GUSTS ABOVE 35 KT AND LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALSO MAY

OCCUR ALONG IMMEDIATE SHORELINE.

SFC MESOANALYSES AND REFLECTIVITY ANIMATIONS INDICATE AXIS OF

CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH PRECIP...GETTING BETTER DEFINED AT 05Z FROM

NWRN LE...NEAR POINT PELEE CANADA...TO WRN-MOST NY. MODIFIED

SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONTINUED COOLING ALOFT WILL OFFSET POST-FRONTAL

CAA ENOUGH TO NOT ONLY MAINTAIN...BUT PERHAPS INCREASE...BUOYANCY

FOR PARCELS IN THIS BAND. MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE UP TO

ABOUT 100 J/KG MLCAPE IS POSSIBLE...ENCOMPASSING ENTIRE DENDRITIC

GROWTH LAYER AND EXTENDING PARTLY INTO HIGHER-ELEVATION THERMAL

LAYERS SUITABLE FOR LTG GENERATION. AS SUCH...ISOLATED THUNDER-SNOW

MAY OCCUR. FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST PASSAGE OF AIR MASS ACROSS

SRN LM HAS SUPPLIED MOISTURE THROUGH SUFFICIENTLY DEEP LAYER TO

REDUCE POTENTIAL FOR DRYING THROUGH VERTICAL MIXING. LOW-LEVEL RH

MAY BE INCREASED SOMEWHAT AS ENTIRE LOWER TROPOSPHERE COOLS...WITH

CONTINUED VERTICAL FLUXES FROM LAKE. OVER-WATER FETCH LENGTH OF

LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES HAS INCREASED...AND SHORT-TERM PROGS

REASONABLY INDICATE FAVORABLE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW DISTANCES ALONG MUCH

OF LE THROUGH ABOUT 09Z. THEREAFTER...LOW- AND MIDDLE-LEVEL FLOW

SHOULD VEER IN RESPONSE TO EWD PASSAGE OF MID-UPPER TROUGH AND

RELATED EWD SHIFT OF ACCOMPANYING ISALLOBARIC/ISALLOHYPSIC FIELDS.

THIS PROCESS...IN TURN...SHOULD SHIFT SNOW BAND SWWD ALONG SRN SHORE

OF LE...WITH CONCURRENT SLOW WEAKENING IN SNOW RATES AS FETCH

DISTANCE DECREASES.

..EDWARDS.. 01/02/2012

ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

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