Jim Martin Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Here is part of the Area Forecast Discussion from the NWS in Northern Indiana mentioning possible lake effect snow event later this weekend... .LONG TERM... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ANOMALOUSLY STRONG HIGH ZONAL FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE EAST PACIFIC THIS PERIOD ACCORDING TO A SIZABLE ARRAY OF 500 MB GFS AND CANADIAN GEM ANALOGS ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. THE SUBSEQUENT CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED TRAJECTORY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG WITH THE DURATION OF THE COLD AIR. CURRENT THINKING IS THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA ABOUT LATE SUNDAY MORNING...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON. MADE SOME MOSTLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO THE TIMING AND EXTENT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW...BUT MAINLY INCREASED SNOW CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT IN THE FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS GIVEN DELTA T VALUES OVER 20 WITH RELATIVELY DEEP SNOW GROWTH WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. THIS HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PRODUCT. OTHERWISE...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK. KEPT TEMPERATURES COLD ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS MUCH BELOW FREEZING. IT LOOKS LIKE THE GFS/MEX IS HOLDING ON TO THE COLD AIR TOO LONG GIVEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE PERIOD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Things are lining up for quite a dumping in spots: from BUF: FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL GROW PROGRESSIVELY COLDER. GIVEN THE TIMEFRAME...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACT WIND DIRECTION...BUT THE MEAN FLOW SHOULD GENERALLY BE NORTHWESTERLY. THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR WILL REACH WESTERN NEW YORK TUESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 12Z GFS/EURO/GGEM ALL FORECAST 850 MB TEMPERATURES TO DROP TO -20 TO -24C ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK. OUTSIDE OF THE BITTERLY COLD SURFACE TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER DUE TO WIND CHILL...THIS ALSO IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT EVENT SO FAR THIS SEASON. WHILE THE WIND DIRECTION IS NOT THE MOST FAVORABLE IN TERMS OF FETCH...THE SHEAR INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY OUTWEIGH THIS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT LAKE INDUCED CAPE. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROF WILL REMAIN ALOFT...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE...AND PRESENT THE POSSIBILITY FOR EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WHICH ARE IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME THIS FAR OUT. SNOW SHOULD BE VERY FLUFFY...WITH 30:1 RATIOS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. THIS SAID...NOT ALL OF WESTERN NEW YORK WILL RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW FROM THIS PATTERN. TYPICALLY...SE OF LAKE ONTARIO (WAYNE/OSWEGO/CAYUGA) AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN TIER WILL RECEIVE THE MOST SNOW IN THIS PATTERN. HOWEVER...THIS ALSO BEARS WATCHING ALONG THE ENTIRE LAKE ONTARIO SOUTHERN SHORES...INCLUDING NIAGARA...ORLEANS...AND MONROE COUNTIES. BASED ON THIS...WILL MAINTAIN A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LAKE SNOWS...AND FOR BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. From CLE: MODELS INDICATING A DEEPLY AMPLIFIED TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE LOW INTENSIFIES SUN NT OVER THE REGION AS BITING ARCTIC AIR SLIDES INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS FAVOR A CLASSIC LAKE EFFECT EVENT FROM SUN NT THROUGH TUE. STILL SOME DETAILS TO REFINE WITH THIS PERIOD OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OF MODEL RUNS BUT FUTURE HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY. FROPA WILL OCCUR ON SUN WITH A NON- DIURNAL TEMP PROFILE...FOLLOWED BY WINDY RAW DAY ON MON. NORTHWEST SFC WINDS COULD GUST OVER 30 MPH IN ROBUST CAA REGIME UNDER AMPLIFYING PATTERN. H85 TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -14C...WHICH WITH THE LAKE STILL AROUND 4C WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED LAKE EFFECT SNOW. HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY OCCUR SUN NT INTO MON BEFORE DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRES START BUILDING IN FROM THE W. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... LAKE EFFECT CONTINUES INTO TUESDAY AS ARCTIC AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. LAKE EFFECT FINALLY COMES TO AN END TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS LOWER LAKES AND WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SOUTH. GRADUAL WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Setup is looking pretty decent for the lakes. I'm a north flow snob so doubt I will be chasing what comes off of southern Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Setup is looking pretty decent for the lakes. I'm a north flow snob so doubt I will be chasing what comes off of southern Lake Michigan. Yeah I'm still waiting to chase one of those single band textbookers into nw IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nickysixes Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 And from the beautiful North woods this morning......... SUNDAY ONWARD...THE WELL ADVERTISED...MOST HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE AIR MASS TURN MUCH COLDER AS VERY STRONG WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF NRN MICHIGAN...WHILE DEEP MOISTURE...GOOD CYCLONIC CONVERGENCE WILL DEFINITELY BRING NRN MICHIGAN`S BEST LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW EVENT OF THE YEAR...AND FOR MOST OF THE REGION. ALTHOUGH KINDA FAR OUT THERE TO GET INTO THE DETAILS...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL APPEARS EVEN MORE LIKELY NOW...WITH THIS LOOKING LIKE A LOCK FOR WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES AND GROWING CONCERN FOR STRONG HEADLINES. WINDS LOOK TO GUST 35 TO 45 MPH...WITH THE THREAT FOR SEVERAL INCHES (WARNING CRITERIA?) OF SNOW FOR TRAVELERS AT THE END OF THE NEW YEAR HOLIDAY. TRAVEL IMPLICATIONS ARE OBVIOUS. TREACHEROUSLY SLICK AND SNOW COVERED ROADS ARE ARE ANTICIPATED...INCLUDING PRIMARY ROADS/INTERSTATE 75. COMBINE THIS WITH SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN SNOW AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW...AND TRAVELERS MAY WANT TO ASSESS THEIR TRAVEL PLANS NOW. SNOW/WIND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY EVENING...BUT WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY BY TUESDAY WITH DRY AIR ON THE WAY. THE WEATHER THEN TURN RATHER QUIET...WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY. SMD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Setup is looking pretty decent for the lakes. I'm a north flow snob so doubt I will be chasing what comes off of southern Lake Michigan. Hey now, I've seen some multi-band setups that really deliver and the lake is primed. With the way this Winter has gone, I'm suprised at your snobbery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Hey now, I've seen some multi-band setups that really deliver and the lake is primed. With the way this Winter has gone, I'm suprised at your snobbery. I've chased a couple multi-band setups but they're not my favorite. I chase once per winter (if that) and I'm gambling on a good north flow event sometime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I'm headed to either NW lower Michigan or Grand Marais in the UP. Snowmobile trailer will be in tow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MIZ077&warncounty=MIC021&firewxzone=MIZ077&local_place1=Baroda+MI&product1=Special+Weather+Statement ...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT... LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER FAR SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN INDIANA. IN MICHIGAN THIS INCLUDES BERRIEN...BRANCH AND SAINT JOSEPH COUNTIES....AND IN INDIANA...SAINT JOSEPH...ELKHART AND NORTHEAST LAPORTE COUNTIES. THESE AREAS MAY RECEIVE IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES OF SNOW...ACCOMPANIED BY BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. TRAVEL MAY BECOME DIFFICULT OVER SECTIONS OF INTERSTATES 80 AND 94...AND HIGHWAYS 6...12...AND 20. IN ADDITIONAL TO THE HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL...VERY COLD WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE COLD AIR...IN COMBINATION WITH THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Ontonagon, Houghton, and Keweenaw counties are under a blizzard watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MARQUETTE MI 204 PM EST FRI DEC 30 2011 ...SIGNIFICANT LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE OVER NEW YEARS DAY INTO MONDAY... .DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND DEEPEN. WIDESPREAD SNOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...THEN TURN TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC AIR MOVES ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR ON NORTHWEST WINDS. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING TO 55 MPH WILL CREATE SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW WITH POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KEWEENAW PENINSULA SOUTH THROUGH ONTONAGON COUNTY. THE SNOW AND WIND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE MONDAY NIGHT. MIZ001>003-311000- /O.NEW.KMQT.BZ.A.0001.120101T0600Z-120103T0000Z/ KEWEENAW-ONTONAGON-NORTHERN HOUGHTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COPPER HARBOR...ONTONAGON...HOUGHTON... HANCOCK 204 PM EST FRI DEC 30 2011 ...BLIZZARD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MARQUETTE HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. * BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH AND WIDESPREAD BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. * SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF A FOOT OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I'm headed to either NW lower Michigan or Grand Marais in the UP. Snowmobile trailer will be in tow. Grand Marais to Paradise should do good with this event with NW winds. Beautiful area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Yeah I'm still waiting to chase one of those single band textbookers into nw IN. I've chased a couple multi-band setups but they're not my favorite. I chase once per winter (if that) and I'm gambling on a good north flow event sometime. Monday evening into the overnight might be a good time to hit up Laporte Co. as winds will be out of the north by then and favor formation of a single band. If it was Sunday night I would consider driving up there just to see what it's like, especially since I don't have to work on Monday. But it will be Monday night and Tuesday morning comes really early. My prediction is that western Laporte Co. gets pummeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Monday evening into the overnight might be a good time to hit up Laporte Co. as winds will be out of the north by then and favor formation of a single band. If it was Sunday night I would consider driving up there just to see what it's like, especially since I don't have to work on Monday. But it will be Monday night and Tuesday morning comes really early. My prediction is that western Laporte Co. gets pummeled. Hmm, thanks for the heads up. 00z NAM does turn the 925 mb flow almost due north early Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Hmm, thanks for the heads up. 00z NAM does turn the 925 mb flow almost due north early Tuesday. Could get interesting depending on whether a single band can set up. Hoping for Porter Co Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Could get interesting depending on whether a single band can set up. Hoping for Porter Co Lake/850 mb delta T's become extreme (22-24C) on Tuesday morning although inversion height doesn't look particularly deep. I don't think that would preclude a significant event though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Yeah good LES signal on the 0z NAM for nw IN/sw MI between 72-84hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Sullivan/Wright are headed to Michigan for a LES "chase". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Yeah good LES signal on the 0z NAM for nw IN/sw MI between 72-84hr Spitting out decent QPF considering the resolution. Will be interesting to see this when it gets into the 24-48 hour timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Sullivan/Wright are headed to Michigan for a LES "chase". I was also just talking about Sam about it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Hmm, thanks for the heads up. 00z NAM does turn the 925 mb flow almost due north early Tuesday. Hopefully some snow showers make it down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Hmm, thanks for the heads up. 00z NAM does turn the 925 mb flow almost due north early Tuesday. Yeah good LES signal on the 0z NAM for nw IN/sw MI between 72-84hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Hmmm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/ Winter Storm Watch up for West Michigan Grand Rapids NWS saying there is the potential for AT LEAST 6 to 8 inches of lake effect snow across West Michigan. I really hope so!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 http://www.crh.noaa.gov/grr/ Winter Storm Watch up for West Michigan Grand Rapids NWS saying there is the potential for AT LEAST 6 to 8 inches of lake effect snow across West Michigan. I really hope so!!! There's no doubt that there will be some decent LES for MI. The only problem is that the low level winds will be so strong that snow bands will get sheared apart, somewhat limiting accumulations. By the time the winds die down a little, they will begin to swing more northerly. I'm hoping GRR is right and that you get hammered. However, I'm still thinking that Laporte Co. IN will be the sweet spot Monday night into Tuesday. I would also not be surprised to see some mesolow action showing up on the hi res models as we get into their timeframe. This will be fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Here's a shot from my hi-res WRF runs... total precip, initialized from 0z GFS through 84 hours. reflectivity @ 1/22z 3/00z 3/10z Take it FWIW... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Here's a shot from my hi-res WRF runs... total precip, initialized from 0z GFS through 84 hours. Take it FWIW... Thanks. That's the first hi-res run I've seen for this event through 84 hours. That appears to be a solid 0.5 to 1 inch of QPF over Cleveland, with a small max of 1.5" over the eastern suburbs. The WRF map looks like a very classic LES event for these parts. That would definitely be a 10-20" snowfall event for the suburbs and a 6-8" event for the western portions of the city. CLE has even tossed around the possibility of blizzard headlines for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 Even though NWOH never does well with LES, his has the potential to drop 1-3" due to a mix of synoptic and LES snow off Michigan. That hi-res model looked pretty cool btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I'm going to make reservations at a hotel to go snowmobiling based on how these 3 spots pan out by the end of the day Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather90210 Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I found this write up for the les off of lakes Michigan and Erie. It's a pretty good read. Sounds like some places are gonna get hammered! http://www.corymottice.com/2011/12/30/january-1-3-2012-lake-effect-snow/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 I'm going to make reservations at a hotel to go snowmobiling based on how these 3 spots pan out by the end of the day Monday. When are you going? Hopefully the Friday torch gets knocked down (12Z GFS was better as the 10C 850 line stayed south). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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