Where The First Significant Snow Event Is Possible

[FoothillsNC]

Based on the pattern, I thought I'd take a stab at what I've been putting in words over the last couple of months. The strong amplifying pattern probably looks to keep repeating this La Nina winter, unless/until a block forms (which is a different topic). Based on the close calls already and other factors that just continue to point to high amp flow into the new year, at some point part of the Southeast will experience a major cutoff with snow underneath and on the north and west sides. Here's my first choices. I base it on climatology, and persistence. It could be that our first good snow or ice event comes from the most usual suspects, overrunning like last year in a supressed flow, but I think a cutoff is the most likely candidate this time.

Number 1, Tennessee Valley, centered on MEM

Number 2, Eastern Carolinas with a sudden development along the coast and throwback into cold.

Number 3, The deep or mid South, from Texas to SC.

Number 4, The southern Apps and western Piedmont. Typical storm track in some upper/sfc lows.

Any of these scenarious has great potential, I especially like the chance of an historic amount in western Ky/Tn/Ms. based on precip patterns this year.

[Psalm 148:8]

Nice job! Hoping that we see one in any of these areas soon....We really have had our share of these cutoffs lately....sure would be nice to be under one during a cold outbreak...Off the wall question for ya....So why does it rain forever ala this past week's events and then afterwards its cloudy for the whole next day??? When it snows, the sky is blue and the sun shines almost as soon as it stops snowing?? What gives??? Give me a snow with some clouds to stick around and keep the sun from melting it!!! I am sure you are going to give me a meteorological answer that I really should have thought of....Just odd though....thought about this as I was looking at some of the past snows we had....2 of which were the cold core low variety.

[franklin NCwx]

Thanks for all the hard work you put in Robert. I'm not liking being in your 4th choice tho. I hope your wrong on that.

[mercurydime]

appreciative of all you contribute, Robert...

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

Based on the pattern, I thought I'd take a stab at what I've been putting in words over the last couple of months. The strong amplifying pattern probably looks to keep repeating this La Nina winter, unless/until a block forms (which is a different topic). Based on the close calls already and other factors that just continue to point to high amp flow into the new year, at some point part of the Southeast will experience a major cutoff with snow underneath and on the north and west sides. Here's my first choices. I base it on climatology, and persistence. It could be that our first good snow or ice event comes from the most usual suspects, overrunning like last year in a supressed flow, but I think a cutoff is the most likely candidate this time.

Number 1, Tennessee Valley, centered on MEM

Number 2, Eastern Carolinas with a sudden development along the coast and throwback into cold.

Number 3, The deep or mid South, from Texas to SC.

Number 4, The southern Apps and western Piedmont. Typical storm track in some upper/sfc lows.

Any of these scenarious has great potential, I especially like the chance of an historic amount in western Ky/Tn/Ms. based on precip patterns this year.

#2, #3, or #4 would be interesting...... Obviously, I would prefer #4, but I would hate to see the Tenn valley track. That set-up would be murder for the snow-starved southeast folks.

[FoothillsNC]

Nice job! Hoping that we see one in any of these areas soon....We really have had our share of these cutoffs lately....sure would be nice to be under one during a cold outbreak...Off the wall question for ya....So why does it rain forever ala this past week's events and then afterwards its cloudy for the whole next day??? When it snows, the sky is blue and the sun shines almost as soon as it stops snowing?? What gives??? Give me a snow with some clouds to stick around and keep the sun from melting it!!! I am sure you are going to give me a meteorological answer that I really should have thought of....Just odd though....thought about this as I was looking at some of the past snows we had....2 of which were the cold core low variety.

typically our snows are caused by a low pressure , on the front side of warm advection into cold air, so its usually cloudy a good 12 to 18 hours before the flakes fall, and the moisture wraps around the low, then once the center of the low is passed your location (usually located at the southwest side of moisture), then you get into subsidence, or sinking air, and a frontal passage. That means clearing begins immediately. That's not always the case on systems that run up the east coast for place along and WEST of the Appalachians, because those mountains capture the prevailing winds and form low clouds. The moisture literally banks along and west of the Apps many times during east coast storms. But for GA and esp. for the downslope areas of eastern Ga it usually clears and becomes sunny within a few hours of the last flake. This is especially true in daytime and theres a nice frontal passage involved, but if nighttime, you may have clouds and fog or freezing drizzle. Hope that explains it.

[NavarreDon]

Thanks for your time Robert! I could babble on & on but, I think you know how much your contributions are thought of on the board.

[FoothillsNC]

#2, #3, or #4 would be interesting...... Obviously, I would prefer #4, but I would hate to see the Tenn valley track. That set-up would be murder for the snow-starved southeast folks.

While yes that track would be bad for the Apps and esp. east of the Apps, I'm not saying thats the only system this Winter. Just my personal first choice. I could very well be wrong and it could be southern half of Louisiana. But actually anywhere is game, the point is its' probably coming for some folks. The best scenario for most folks would be similar to March 2009, with a west to east/northeast tracking system, rain on front, snow on back.

[valkhorn]

Based on the pattern, I thought I'd take a stab at what I've been putting in words over the last couple of months. The strong amplifying pattern probably looks to keep repeating this La Nina winter, unless/until a block forms (which is a different topic). Based on the close calls already and other factors that just continue to point to high amp flow into the new year, at some point part of the Southeast will experience a major cutoff with snow underneath and on the north and west sides. Here's my first choices. I base it on climatology, and persistence. It could be that our first good snow or ice event comes from the most usual suspects, overrunning like last year in a supressed flow, but I think a cutoff is the most likely candidate this time.

Number 1, Tennessee Valley, centered on MEM

Number 2, Eastern Carolinas with a sudden development along the coast and throwback into cold.

Number 3, The deep or mid South, from Texas to SC.

Number 4, The southern Apps and western Piedmont. Typical storm track in some upper/sfc lows.

Any of these scenarious has great potential, I especially like the chance of an historic amount in western Ky/Tn/Ms. based on precip patterns this year.

Just nitpicking, but number 1 is closer to the Mississippi Valley.

[FoothillsNC]

Just nitpicking, but number 1 is closer to the Mississippi Valley.

I know...and not centered on MEM. Just cut me a teeny bit of slack, LOL.

[Gastonwxman]

Great work Robert. I agree that something good could be in the works at some point for next month or beyond somewhere in the Southeast. You would think that eventually given the evolution of the pattern, such a system will eventually pop up but where it forms, when, and who gets what remains to be seen and this winter's behavior would fit the idea of such potential as we push on through the season. Overall, I still remain optimistic for at least one major event but as you have said, it could be anywhere across the region. We will have to wait and see for ourselves, eh?

[Southern Track]

While yes that track would be bad for the Apps and esp. east of the Apps, I'm not saying thats the only system this Winter. Just my personal first choice. I could very well be wrong and it could be southern half of Louisiana. But actually anywhere is game, the point is its' probably coming for some folks. The best scenario for most folks would be similar to March 2009, with a west to east/northeast tracking system, rain on front, snow on back.

Yeah, watching that system roll in with an almost straight eastern track was absolutely beautiful. Those are the systems that you know aren't going to miss(the majority anyways).

[Met1985]

Great post as always Robert! I things are really looking up. Looks like we could get some good upslope snows here in the mountains next week. Thanks for all the details! Keep up the good work.

[Psalm 148:8]

typically our snows are caused by a low pressure , on the front side of warm advection into cold air, so its usually cloudy a good 12 to 18 hours before the flakes fall, and the moisture wraps around the low, then once the center of the low is passed your location (usually located at the southwest side of moisture), then you get into subsidence, or sinking air, and a frontal passage. That means clearing begins immediately. That's not always the case on systems that run up the east coast for place along and WEST of the Appalachians, because those mountains capture the prevailing winds and form low clouds. The moisture literally banks along and west of the Apps many times during east coast storms. But for GA and esp. for the downslope areas of eastern Ga it usually clears and becomes sunny within a few hours of the last flake. This is especially true in daytime and theres a nice frontal passage involved, but if nighttime, you may have clouds and fog or freezing drizzle. Hope that explains it.

Thanks, Robert...knew you could explain the why behind my "whine" HAHAHA!! Thanks.

[tnweathernut]

Kind of looks like Chattanooga's west side is in the screw zone........haha and j/k. Thanks for taking the time to put this out there and I agree on your number one choice. Seems to have been a repeating spot already the last couple of months.

[buckeyefan1]

Thanks Robert for all of your hard work One of these cutoff's will give many here something to remember this winter, it's just a matter of time before it all comes together.

[AcworthWx]

While yes that track would be bad for the Apps and esp. east of the Apps, I'm not saying thats the only system this Winter. Just my personal first choice. I could very well be wrong and it could be southern half of Louisiana. But actually anywhere is game, the point is its' probably coming for some folks. The best scenario for most folks would be similar to March 2009, with a west to east/northeast tracking system, rain on front, snow on back.

#1 is not my first choice, but seems to be the winning area ATM. Speaking of March 2009, it was ok but I rather liked March 2010 for a better solution. Here are a couple pics to look back on that storm.

After a brief period of rain, it switched over to mix then all snow

All snow switch with +SN starting to accumulate.

A few pics after about 45 minutes of accumulation(2"+)

One the wife took on her way out to the store after it calmed down a little.

[NCSNOW]

The great thing about my exact location is area 2 and 4 overlap each other. Jan 2000 I was on the western fringe, caught 15 inches and one county over to my west nothing. Many times I'm on the eastern fringe of the perfect foothills/ western peidmont tracks. Like Feburary 2004 the ULL that produced 17 IMBY and 19 up in Archdale and hit areas back toward 74 corridor good, but lost it's punch as you head east toward the triangle.

[jburns]

The great thing about my exact location is area 2 and 4 overlap each other. Jan 2000 I was on the western fringe, caught 15 inches and one county over to my west nothing. Many times I'm on the eastern fringe of the perfect foothills/ western peidmont tracks. Like Feburary 2004 the ULL that produced 17 IMBY and 19 up in Archdale and hit areas back toward 74 corridor good, but lost it's punch as you head east toward the triangle.

I beg your pardon. 20, not a measly 19.

[wh_adkins01]

I beg your pardon. 20, not a measly 19.

WOW! I would give anything to see something like that again..I lived in Guilford County during the Jan 25th 2000 storm..11 IMBY while my grandmother in Asheboro was bordering 20". Only got about 5 in the 04 storm. I'm content however as I'm confident something big is setting up in the near future.

[NCSNOW]

I beg your pardon. 20, not a measly 19.

Ha! Man would I love to see one of these again. Truth is me and you live in the perfect spot to cash in on most winter weather events in NC, with the exception of upslopes. But we also pay a steep price at times. The pre -Christmas snow from December 2009 comes to mind. I barely accumulated a slushy and I mean slushy inch, while 15 miles to my Northwest there was 3+ inches on the ground and accums went up rapidly as you headed NW from there. The transition line always finds it's way through our county in some shape or form with almost every event. Never dull thats for sure.

[Poimen]

Thanks, Robert!

[GvlleSC]

Greenville, SC may be heading for a dull winter. I am not a weather guru but I enjoy following you guys.

[valkhorn]

I'm naturally hoping #4 will happen but we'll see. FYI, Mt. Leconte picked up 4.5" of snow last night - so it did snow at least somewhere in the southeast.

[Met1985]

I'm naturally hoping #4 will happen but we'll see. FYI, Mt. Leconte picked up 4.5" of snow last night - so it did snow at least somewhere in the southeast.

Nice. Had an incha nd a half at my house this morning. Still snow on the ground this evening. Looks a lot like winter finally and ground is starting to freeze up. Good signs!

[Rankin5150]

I want a Februrary 2004 REDUX!!! My personal ALL TIME Fav! We got 16+" out of that storm! Thanks SO MUCH for ALL YOU DO Robert!

[kanc2001]

A 2 & 3 hybrid please

[lilj4425]

Greenville, SC may be heading for a dull winter. I am not a weather guru but I enjoy following you guys.

This post is depressing.

[Brick Tamland]

I'd like to place my order for #2, hold the mayo.

[Southern Track]

This post is depressing.

I feel more confident. The pattern has not been dull to say the least. If we keep an active pattern into January I don't think "dull" will enter your vocabulary.