winterymix Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I wonder if this little EURO fantasy low holds promise for us? Even if it was slush to rain, it would be something to feed the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2012 Author Share Posted January 1, 2012 I wonder if this little EURO fantasy low holds promise for us? Even if it was slush to rain, it would be something to feed the weenies. I wouldn't worry about the upper low too much it would have to wait for the trough coming in from the Pacific to do us any good as the digging across to our north would force the low east south of us. However, the timing of all those features will be different on the next run. The more interesting part of the run is it does show lots of higher than normal heights east of iceland which if they were to retrogress would be our first legit negative nao somewhere down the road. that's still a big iff since the model likes building ridges and digging upper lows. That does seem to be something that more of the model runs are pointing at. However, the gfs ensemble mean at the end of its period still has a strongly negative nao. If you look at the individual members they are all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I wouldn't worry about the upper low too much it would have to wait for the trough coming in from the Pacific to do us any good as the digging across to our north would force the low east south of us. However, the timing of all those features will be different on the next run. The more interesting part of the run is it does show lots of higher than normal heights east of iceland which if they were to retrogress would be our first legit negative nao somewhere down the road. that's still a big iff since the model likes building ridges and digging upper lows. That does seem to be something that more of the model runs are pointing at. However, the gfs ensemble mean at the end of its period still has a strongly negative nao. If you look at the individual members they are all over the place. Time to embrace the coming pattern change and get people to like you again:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 1, 2012 Author Share Posted January 1, 2012 Time to embrace the coming pattern change and get people to like you again:) I wish I could, the euro ens mean still shows the negative ao and a less than great pacific. The pattern isn't quite as bad as it was but I'd be real surprised if we saw accumulating snow before the middle of the month but I've been surprised many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Wes Joe Daleo gave a nice compliment to the Capital Weather Gang regarding the Jan 2000 storm. I wish I could, the euro ens mean still shows the negative ao and a less than great pacific. The pattern isn't quite as bad as it was but I'd be real surprised if we saw accumulating snow before the middle of the month but I've been surprised many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 Wes Joe Daleo gave a nice compliment to the Capital Weather Gang regarding the Jan 2000 storm. You must mean the 2010 storm? Thanks for letting me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 No the infamous Jan 25, 2000 storm. He said as the CWG recalled in 2010.. You must have done a write up last year about it. I usually read your column but must have missed that one. You must mean the 2010 storm? Thanks for letting me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 No the infamous Jan 25, 2000 storm. He said as the CWG recalled in 2010.. You must have done a write up last year about it. I usually read your column but must have missed that one. If so the article certainly wasn't done by me, maybe by Jason or Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 If so the article certainly wasn't done by me, maybe by Jason or Ian. IIRC, Steve Tracton did a couple articles on predictability and included a bit on the Jan2K storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 IIRC, Steve Tracton did a couple articles on predictability and included a bit on the Jan2K storm. That make sense since he had the rerun ensemble data for the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 cold without snow is terrible...but snow without cold is impossible I've now printed and will frame this quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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