dmc76 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 First Clipper to bring some snow from Northern Michigan through SW Ontario. Second Clipper to bring a General 1-3" event along I-80 is possible. Temps looks Marginal for a bigger event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 There's also a lead clipper for tomorrow that affects northern MI down to my area before washing out. Could be a couple of inches there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 There's also a lead clipper for tomorrow that affects northern MI down to my area before washing out. Could be a couple of inches there. Fixed. I added the first clipper to this thread considering its so close together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Looking good for at least a couple of inches tomorrow maybe more on friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Local forecasters around my neck of the woods are calling for 1-3" Thursday night. 12z GFS would support that. NAM argues to differ though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Local forecasters around my neck of the woods are calling for 1-3" Thursday night. 12z GFS would support that. NAM argues to differ though. The GFS does not support it. With BL temps being mild and UA temps marginal, about all we'll see around here is some RA/SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The GFS does not support it. With BL temps being mild and UA temps marginal, about all we'll see around here is some RA/SN. this, non-starter for this area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Yawn. better then nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The GFS does not support it. With BL temps being mild and UA temps marginal, about all we'll see around here is some RA/SN. I think the chance is there for a slushy accumulation. More so in the evening. Predicted low here is 32°. This might be one of those "wait and see what happens" kind of events once it gets here. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Looking good for at least a couple of inches tomorrow maybe more on friday Tomorrow looks good for an inch or two. Friday's BL temps are marginal. Could be a mixture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 MKX calling for freezing rain. That could get interesting. ...POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING... LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND NOON ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AS IT FALLS ON COLD ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. THE EXTENT AND AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST AIR TEMPERATURES CAN WARM THE COLD SURFACES BEFORE ANY RAIN STARTS TO FALL. THE MIXED LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN IN NORTHEAST SECTIONS BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY...BEFORE ENDING AROUND THE NOON HOUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The AFD from DTX was almost comical. Those guys up on the hill must be pulling their hair with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 MKX calling for freezing rain. That could get interesting. ...POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING... LOW PRESSURE...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WILL TRACK FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE TONIGHT TO CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND NOON ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND LIGHT RAIN TO DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AS IT FALLS ON COLD ROADS AND SIDEWALKS. THE EXTENT AND AMOUNT OF FREEZING RAIN WILL DEPEND ON HOW FAST AIR TEMPERATURES CAN WARM THE COLD SURFACES BEFORE ANY RAIN STARTS TO FALL. THE MIXED LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING...CHANGING TO ALL RAIN IN NORTHEAST SECTIONS BY MID-MORNING THURSDAY...BEFORE ENDING AROUND THE NOON HOUR. The keyword in that statement is LIGHT. I suppose even 0.01-0.05" of freezing rain could make roads slick, but it is probably not going to be worth noting, not to mention the RUC doesn't show any precip south of Sheboygan from this tiny clipper before the more significant one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The keyword in that statement is LIGHT. I suppose even 0.01-0.05" of freezing rain could make roads slick, but it is probably not going to be worth noting, not to mention the RUC doesn't show any precip south of Sheboygan from this tiny clipper before the more significant one. Radar looks pretty solid right now, and the HRRR is showing a good hit (all of which it is saying is ZR): http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/RR/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=rr:&runTime=2011122821&plotName=cref_q2sfc&fcstInc=60&numFcsts=19&model=rr&ptitle=RR%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=18&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=q2&wjet=1 This is a fairly decent overrunning event all in all, the clipper is going to be coming right over the cold dome. Caveats are if the sfc gets too warm and we get all rain, or the sfc layer ends up being so extremely dry that we get virga. Plenty of bust potential but I'm hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 About 60% humidity here. Had some radar returns earlier, but it was virga. Temperatures falling back a bit with partly cloudy skies right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Down to 26 °F. How the temps respond as clouds move in and southerly winds increase will be crucial. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Here's part of the Area Forecast Discussion from the NWS in Cleveland at 719pm est this evening... .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH A FAST ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THE FIRST OF THESE SHORT WAVES WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. THIS WEAK SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GRAZE THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF THE DAY THURSDAY. IN THE MORNING THE TEMPERATURES ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT SNOW WHILE TEMPERATURES BECAUSE MARGINAL IN THE AFTERNOON. I WILL MENTION A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW TO A MIX OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR THURSDAY. IN GENERAL THIS IS A VERY WEAK SHORT WAVE AND PRECIPITATION TOTALS IN GENERAL WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND I DO NOT EXPECT ANY ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST AREAS. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE WILL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST SHORT WAVE. THIS SYSTEM IS A LITTLE STRONGER AND IT WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES FOR THIS SYSTEM ARE MARGINAL AND PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MORE OF A RAIN PROFILE THAN SNOW BUT...SNOW WILL DEFINITELY MIX IN THE PRECIPITATION PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME I WILL LEAVE A MIXED BAG OF PCPN FOR FRIDAY UNTIL THE PICTURE BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE US WITH A BREAK FROM THE PRECIPITATION. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK A LITTLE ON THE WARM SIDE FOR HIGHS ON THU AND FRIDAY. I WILL MOSTLY LIKELY SHAVE A FEW DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 You Detroit and Chicago guys will love the 00z NAM. Granted, the temps are marginal, but still... BTW, this one does have stark similarities to a storm from 2007-2008 that should remain nameless in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 You Detroit and Chicago guys will love the 00z NAM. Granted, the temps are marginal, but still... BTW, this one does have stark similarities to a storm from 2007-2008 that should remain nameless in this thread. A nice swap of 3-7 inches from Chicago to Detroit!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 You Detroit and Chicago guys will love the 00z NAM. Granted, the temps are marginal, but still... BTW, this one does have stark similarities to a storm from 2007-2008 that should remain nameless in this thread. If you love rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I see the NAM has finally juiced up to Euro level for eastern Iowa with this upcoming clipper. It's quite fitting we end the month with yet another solid rain event. I can't remember another December like this one in which nearly all the month's precip fell as rain... very, very strange. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 A nice swap of 3-7 inches from Chicago to Detroit!! If it's all snow but that's highly doubtful. Quick glance at the Chicago forecast soundings reveals it's very marginal with a high freezing level, although the above freezing layer isn't very warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 0z NAM looks so sexy... If only the temperatures were cooperative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 If it's all snow but that's highly doubtful. Quick glance at the Chicago forecast soundings reveals it's very marginal with a high freezing level, although the above freezing layer isn't very warm. Only hope is that the wave is quicker and precip falls more overnight, say between 3z--9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 What's more important right now is the QPF is beefing up. Temps are still safely in a position where things can go either way, and we won't have a good handle on them until after tomorrow's wave comes through. It's very possible things could trend colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 This is about as marginal as it gets for ORD. You really want a colder sounding but something to watch I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 What is the time line for ORD and DTW? During the day snow with Marginal temps suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 You Detroit and Chicago guys will love the 00z NAM. Granted, the temps are marginal, but still... BTW, this one does have stark similarities to a storm from 2007-2008 that should remain nameless in this thread. Didn't expect that with the NAM tonight! This is an evening event luckily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 BTW, the beefed up QPF continues to Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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