Guess the 2012 Global Temperature Anomalies

[The_Global_Warmer]

I believe the UAH reading you posted is through June. I didn't have the June figure when I posted the anomalies to date. I'm still waiting for GISS.

your right I C/P last month's and didn't change May to June.

If I had to guess now I would say the year will be around .25, but if the NINO is weak maybe the fall is cool enough to be lower, but it will be close.

[donsutherland1]

your right I C/P last month's and didn't change May to June.

If I had to guess now I would say the year will be around .25, but if the NINO is weak maybe the fall is cool enough to be lower, but it will be close.

That sounds reasonable to me. With the onset of an El Niño, the warmer forecasts will likely be the better ones (both indices).

[Mallow]

Hahaha. I had no idea this thread existed. If I had known, just based on trends (with a hint of ENSO thrown in), I'd have said:

GISS: +0.50

UAH: +0.18

[donsutherland1]

Hahaha. I had no idea this thread existed. If I had known, just based on trends (with a hint of ENSO thrown in), I'd have said:

GISS: +0.50

UAH: +0.18

Mallow,

I've added your forecast to the list.

FWIW, the following are now the mean forecast anomalies for all forecasts:

GISS: +0.55°C

UAH: +0.14°C

[The_Global_Warmer]

Final Guesses for the 2012 Global Temperature Anomalies:

GISS:

BethesdaWx: +0.53°C

Don Sutherland: +0.55°C

Frivolousz21: +0.53°C

Lake Effect King: +0.65°C

Matthewweatherwatcher: +0.56°C

Okie333: +0.50°C

Skierinvermont: +0.55°C

Snowstorms: +0.58°C

Mean Guess: +0.56°C

Lowest Guess: +0.50°C

Highest Guess: +0.65°C

UAH:

BethesdaWx: +0.17°C

Don Sutherland: +0.14°C

Frivolousz21: +0.23°C

Lake Effect King: +0.16°C

Matthewweatherwatcher: +0.15°C

Okie333: -0.11°C

Skierinvermont: +0.20°C

Snowstorms: +0.11°C

Mean Guess: +0.13°C

Lowest Guess: -0.11°C

Highest Guess: +0.23°C

UAH through July is averaging .164C LEK and Bethesda are currently on it. With the Nino I am thinking we will finish up around .20-.25, we will see.

[skierinvermont]

GISS is .497. through June

just rough without really getting into it I would expect both UAH to finish .20-.25 as Friv suggested as well, and GISS .54-.59.

This makes probably the 5th consecutive year where most people guessed too low. Pretty poor but not as miserable as most of the guesses from previous years. The imminent global cooling crowd seems to be diminishing a bit now that the solar cycle minimum is long past.

[skierinvermont]

Final Guesses for the 2012 Global Temperature Anomalies:

UAH:

BethesdaWx: +0.17°C

Don Sutherland: +0.14°C

Frivolousz21: +0.23°C

Lake Effect King: +0.16°C

Matthewweatherwatcher: +0.15°C

Okie333: -0.11°C

Skierinvermont: +0.20°C

Snowstorms: +0.11°C

Mean Guess: +0.13°C

Lowest Guess: -0.11°C

Highest Guess: +0.23°C

 

Actual: +.16C

 

still slight cold bias for the mean, but probably the best year that I've been posting here.

 

However, the downward revision to UAH of about .1C certainly helped. Had that revision not been made, UAH would have finished warmer than every poster guessed. I based a lot of my forecast on how temperatures were running at the end of 2011 and on how the past couple years have been running, which were all revised slightly lower, so I don't feel too bad about guessing a little high.

 

 

Also GISS ran .54 through November. December not out yet.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Actual: +.16C

 

still slight cold bias for the mean, but probably the best year that I've been posting here.

 

However, the downward revision to UAH of about .1C certainly helped. Had that revision not been made, UAH would have finished warmer than every poster guessed. I based a lot of my forecast on how temperatures were running at the end of 2011 and on how the past couple years have been running, which were all revised lower, so I don't feel too bad about guessing a little high.

 

Exactly. 

[skierinvermont]

Exactly. 

 

Double checking, 2010-2011 were only revised a few hundredths so our guesses probably wouldn't be a lot lower had we had the correct data.

 

It seems justifiable to revise your guess down by .02 though. I probably would have guessed .18. You would have guessed .21. Actual was .16.

 

We thought that it was going to finish at or above your original .23 because the satellite started really messing up in early 2012. But the data we based our guesses on was only revised slightly - so that shouldn't have effected our guesses too much.

[donsutherland1]

We thought that it was going to finish at or above your original .23 because the satellite started really messing up in early 2012. But the data we based our guesses on was only revised slightly - so that shouldn't have effected our guesses too much.

 

 

On account of satellite-related issues, I'll probably drop UAH for the 2013 guess. GISS will be included. I could add NCDC in place of UAH.

 

I believe the final GISS number will be in later this week. I'll tally up the results after that.

[skierinvermont]

On account of satellite-related issues, I'll probably drop UAH for the 2013 guess. GISS will be included. I could add NCDC in place of UAH.

 

I believe the final GISS number will be in later this week. I'll tally up the results after that.

 

Not a bad idea Don. It's difficult to use the satellites when every few years there is a significant revision. Of course, those that believe GISS is a fraud (despite the fact that it has the same trend as UAH) will not be pleased. I do believe that the satellites are an important independent corroborating data source in the long-run, but in the short-run it is difficult to use them for guessing when they are constantly being revised. 

[ORH_wxman]

We should be aware that GISS also makes adjustments. They cooled early 2012 (Jan-Mar) by several hundreths if memory serves correctly. They don't usually make any press release when they do it though, so you have to go back and double check the data. It will sometimes be different then when you last checked it.

 

I believe they also cooled some months in 2011 recently as well while some data from the 1980s was warmed and early 20th century data was cooled.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I stand corrected then.  I can see how i thought that with the months going up high, but that was after the predictions were made.

 

 

[LakeEffectKing]

Geomag for the win?

I've got this climate change thing down!!!

[skierinvermont]

Geomag for the win?

I've got this climate change thing down!!!

 

What does the 9th warmest year on record during a La Nina year have to do with record high geomag the last 5 years? Unless of course you are proposing that geomag causes warming instead of cooling...

[LakeEffectKing]

What does the 9th warmest year on record during a La Nina year have to do with record high geomag the last 5 years? Unless of course you are proposing that geomag causes warming instead of cooling...

 

Settle down Beavis....I was mocking BB....

[donsutherland1]

We should be aware that GISS also makes adjustments. They cooled early 2012 (Jan-Mar) by several hundreths if memory serves correctly. They don't usually make any press release when they do it though, so you have to go back and double check the data. It will sometimes be different then when you last checked it.

 

I believe they also cooled some months in 2011 recently as well while some data from the 1980s was warmed and early 20th century data was cooled.

 

This is correct. More often than not, the monthly reports result in usually minor adjustments for at least some of the preceding months. On a year-to-year basis, though, the changes are often not material. For example, the latest release of the GISS data showed 2011 had an annual anomaly of +0.52°C. That is identical to the figure that was posted in January 2012 for 2011 as a whole.

[donsutherland1]

Not a bad idea Don. It's difficult to use the satellites when every few years there is a significant revision. Of course, those that believe GISS is a fraud (despite the fact that it has the same trend as UAH) will not be pleased. I do believe that the satellites are an important independent corroborating data source in the long-run, but in the short-run it is difficult to use them for guessing when they are constantly being revised. 

 

I agree, Skierinvermont. In any case, the guesses are for fun. They don't reflect any attempt to validate the myriad datasets. One can go to the literature for such discussions. I simply don't want people to be in a position where their guesses were rendered irrelevant on account of technical revision-related changes, not actual temperature outcomes. The reported GISS annual anomalies are quite stable from year-to-year. The same holds true with respect to the NCDC dataset.

[nzucker]

I agree, Skierinvermont. In any case, the guesses are for fun. They don't reflect any attempt to validate the myriad datasets. One can go to the literature for such discussions. I simply don't want people to be in a position where their guesses were rendered irrelevant on account of technical revision-related changes, not actual temperature outcomes. The reported GISS annual anomalies are quite stable from year-to-year. The same holds true with respect to the NCDC dataset.

 

Why not use RSS this year?

[donsutherland1]

Why not use RSS this year?

 

RSS is more a "near global" estimate of atmospheric temperatures (e.g., lower troposphere) than a global one. It leaves out a lot of the globe (more than any other dataset). Its coverage runs from 70S to 82.5N latitude (UAH runs from 85S to 85N).

[Mallow]

Hahaha. I had no idea this thread existed. If I had known, just based on trends (with a hint of ENSO thrown in), I'd have said:

GISS: +0.50

UAH: +0.18

 

 

Actual: +.16C

 

still slight cold bias for the mean, but probably the best year that I've been posting here.

 

However, the downward revision to UAH of about .1C certainly helped. Had that revision not been made, UAH would have finished warmer than every poster guessed. I based a lot of my forecast on how temperatures were running at the end of 2011 and on how the past couple years have been running, which were all revised slightly lower, so I don't feel too bad about guessing a little high.

 

 

Also GISS ran .54 through November. December not out yet.

 

I'll take it.

[donsutherland1]

The December 2012 GISS anomaly was +0.44°C. The 2012 anomaly was +0.56°C.

 

Guesses ranked by error (smallest to largest are below, and in cases of ties, names are listed alphabetically:

 

Matthewweatherwatcher: Guess: +0.56°C; Error: None

Don Sutherland: Guess: +0.55°C; Error: 0.01°C

Skierinvermont: Guess: +0.55°C; Error: 0.01°C

Snowstorms: Guess:0.58°C; Error: 0.02°C

BethesdaWx: Guess: +0.53°C; Error: 0.03°C

Frivolousz21: Guess: +0.53°C; Error: 0.03°C

Mallow: Guess: +0.50°C; Error: 0.06°C

Okie333: Guess: +0.50°C; Error: 0.06°C

Lake Effect King: Guess: +0.65°C: Error: 0.09°C

 

Mean Guess: +0.55°C; Error: 0.01°C

[donsutherland1]

The December 2012 UAH anomaly was +0.21°C. The 2012 anomaly was +0.16°C.

 

Guesses ranked by error (smallest to largest are below, and in cases of ties, names are listed alphabetically:

 

Lake Effect King: Guess: +0.16°C; Error: None

BethesdaWx: Guess: +0.17°C; Error: 0.01°C

Matthewweatherwatcher: Guess: +0.15°C; Error: 0.01°C

Don Sutherland: Guess:0.14°C; Error: 0.02°C

Mallow: Guess: +0.14°C; Error: 0.02°C

Skierinvermont: Guess: +0.20°C; Error: 0.04°C

Snowstorms: Guess: +0.11°C; Error: 0.05°C

Frivolousz21: Guess: +0.23°C; Error: 0.07°C

Okie333: Guess: -0.11°C: Error: 0.27°C

 

Mean Guess: +0.13°C; Error: 0.03°C

[donsutherland1]

Combined Standardized Scores (GISS and UAH are weighted equally) in standard deviations from the mean error:

Matthewweatherwatcher: -0.847

Don Sutherland: -0.618
Skierinvermont: -0.499

BethesdaWx: -0.340

Snowstorms: -0.271

Frivolousz21: +0.018

Mallow: +0.226

Lake Effect King: +0.613

Okie333: +1.717
 

[tacoman25]

GISS is .497. through June

just rough without really getting into it I would expect both UAH to finish .20-.25 as Friv suggested as well, and GISS .54-.59.

This makes probably the 5th consecutive year where most people guessed too low. Pretty poor but not as miserable as most of the guesses from previous years. The imminent global cooling crowd seems to be diminishing a bit now that the solar cycle minimum is long past.

 

Actually, as it turned out more people guessed too high in both 2011 and 2012 if you look at Don's results.

[skierinvermont]

Actually, as it turned out more people guessed too high in both 2011 and 2012 if you look at Don's results.

Only on yah bc of downward revsion

[nflwxman]

Are these contests worth revising for GISS revisions?  It looks like 2011 is now 0.55 and 2012 is now 0.58?  Or is it official after the December anomaly comes out regardless of future revisions?  Just wondering for next years contest.

[ORH_wxman]

Are these contests worth revising for GISS revisions?  It looks like 2011 is now 0.55 and 2012 is now 0.58?  Or is it official after the December anomaly comes out regardless of future revisions?  Just wondering for next years contest.

 

 

GISS revises all the time. Its actually pretty annoying because someone may have won initially and then 3 years later, the value was adjusted by 0.03 or something.

 

Their prelim December value is almost always not correct though when they release it in mid-January....so people might want to wait about 1-2 months before seeing where the whole year fell.

[PhillipS]

Are we revisiting 2012?