Guess the 2012 Global Temperature Anomalies

[donsutherland1]

Guess the GISS and UAH global temperature anomalies for 2012.

Please try to get all guesses in by January 7, 2012.

Data Sources:

GISS: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt (The annual anomaly will be the J-D figure). NOTE: "40" = +40/100 or +0.40°C

UAH: http://vortex.nsstc....t2lt/uahncdc.lt (The annual anomaly will be the average of the January-December monthly figures for "globe")

This thread is for guesses and verifications, not discussion of climate change.

Note:

Verification of the 2011 guesses (http://www.americanw...ture-anomalies/) will be completed when the GISS and UAH numbers are available (probably mid- to late-January). GISS and UAH anomalies through November and the guesses for 2011 are listed in #43 in the thread.

[BethesdaWX]

UAH is being adjusted down post-2008 so if that is not in place starting December we'll have to wait for the correction. My guestimate for 2012 is about the same as 2011, the last year or second to last year in the warm period.

[donsutherland1]

My guestimate for 2012 is about the same as 2011, the last year or second to last year in the warm period.

To quantify things, your guesses for 2011 were:

BethesdaWx:

GISS: +0.46°C

UAH: -0.01°C

Of course, you can still revise them through the end of 1/7.

[BethesdaWX]

To quantify things, your guesses for 2011 were:

BethesdaWx:

GISS: +0.46°C

UAH: -0.01°C

Of course, you can still revise them through the end of 1/7.

As for guessing 2012, that is like asking folks to predict ENSO 1 year out. Fortunately geomag allows you to see into the future.

[donsutherland1]

My 2012 Guesses:

GISS: +0.55°C

UAH: +0.14°C

Note: UAH was fixed (12/28), as I accidentally pasted my 2011 guess.

[TerryM]

As for guessing 2012, that is like asking folks to predict ENSO 1 year out. Fortunately geomag allows you to see into the future.

It sure worked for you last year

[BethesdaWX]

It sure worked for you last year

I actually did not use the geomag reflection last yr due to ENSO strength. I figured the strong La Nina would give a typical response.

Geomag argued for a warmer solution than I had out.

[tacoman25]

I would suggest Surface (GISS/HadCRU average) and Satellite (UAH/RSS average) guess. These are the four main global temperature sources, so in the interest of fairness I think it would make sense not to just focus on the two most polarizing sources (one run by a prominent AGW alarmist, the other by a prominent skeptic).

[BethesdaWX]

I would suggest Surface (GISS/HadCRU average) and Satellite (UAH/RSS average) guess. These are the four main global temperature sources, so in the interest of fairness I think it would make sense not to just focus on the two most polarizing sources (one run by a prominent AGW alarmist, the other by a prominent skeptic).

Or just NCDC? Combining different datasets with varying methods seems risky. NCDC is between the two.

[okie333]

GISS: +0.50

UAH: -0.11

[donsutherland1]

For 2013, I'll include the NCDC data set, so the GISS, UAH, and NCDC data sets will be included next year. I'm keeping GISS and UAH to see if there's any degree of "skill" in guessing the global anomalies, especially as different people have different methodologies.

[donsutherland1]

Guesses to Date:

GISS:

BethesdaWx: +0.46°C

Don Sutherland: +0.55°C

Okie333: +0.50°C

UAH:

BethesdaWx: -0.01°C

Don Sutherland: +0.14°C

Okie333: -0.11°C

[BethesdaWX]

Guesses to Date:

GISS:

BethesdaWx: +0.46°C

Don Sutherland: +0.55°C

Okie333: +0.50°C

UAH:

BethesdaWx: -0.01°C

Don Sutherland: +0.14°C

Okie333: -0.11°C

I didn't make a formal guess yet, but geomag favors something similar to how this year is turning out in reality, I should have stuck to my guns last year but I felt pressure seeing all the colder guesses even from skierinvermont.

My 2011 guess was based off ENSO strength expecting typical response thermally, while geomag superimposed sequence+momentum lag which operates through albedo and global wind compensation signaled the strong spike this past summer which shows up well on the AP index in 2004. It is just my hypothesis, though, that the correlation is derived that way.

Formulating a guess based on a correlation that works like a flame --- kettle in the long run, and not an in-step correlation is difficult.

[matthewweatherwatcher]

2012

Giss .56c

Uah .15c

[The_Global_Warmer]

Guesses to Date:

GISS:

BethesdaWx: +0.46°C

Don Sutherland: +0.55°C

Okie333: +0.50°C

Frivolousz21: +0.53°C

UAH:

BethesdaWx: -0.01°C

Don Sutherland: +0.14°C

Okie333: -0.11°C

Frivolousz21: +0.23°C

[donsutherland1]

I didn't make a formal guess yet...

I'm aware of that. The figure assigned pending your formal guess was last year's figures. It's a placeholder, only if you wanted to start from last year's figures. You had stated in message #2, "My guestimate for 2012 is about the same as 2011."

[BethesdaWX]

I'm aware of that. The figure assigned pending your formal guess was last year's figures. You had stated in message #2, "My guestimate for 2012 is about the same as 2011."

I worded that badly, I meant how 2011 turned out. My guess for 2012 is +0.17 on UAH, and +0.53 on GISS but I'm worried I bust high.

[donsutherland1]

Guesses to Date:

GISS:

BethesdaWx:+0.53°C

Don Sutherland: +0.55°C

Matthewweatherwatcher: +0.56°C

Okie333: +0.50°C

UAH:

BethesdaWx: +0.17°C

Don Sutherland: +0.14°C

Matthewweatherwatcher: +0.15°C

Okie333: -0.11°C

[LakeEffectKing]

Guesses to Date:

GISS:

BethesdaWx:+0.53°C

Don Sutherland: +0.55°C

Matthewweatherwatcher: +0.56°C

Okie333: +0.50°C

LEK +0.65

UAH:

BethesdaWx: +0.17°C

Don Sutherland: +0.14°C

Matthewweatherwatcher: +0.15°C

Okie333: -0.11°C

LEK +0.16

[Snowstorms]

For GISS: +0.58

For UAH: +0.11

[The_Global_Warmer]

Lek-

Is that a record for Giss?

Don, I posted mine earlier, I think you may have missed it.

GISS:

Frivolousz21: +0.53°C

UAH:

Frivolousz21: +0.23°C

[BethesdaWX]

This is like predicting ENSO 1 year out, geomag favors a 3rd year La Nina but I'm worried I have misinterpreted the reading and guessed too high.

[donsutherland1]

Lek-

Is that a record for Giss?

Don, I posted mine earlier, I think you may have missed it.

GISS:

Frivolousz21: +0.53°C

UAH:

Frivolousz21: +0.23°C

That would be a record for GISS. Also, I did miss your estimate, but all estimates will be included in a summary after today.

[skierinvermont]

I've been busy and have limited internet access so here are some late numbers which I might adjust in the next few days if I've got time:

UAH: +.2

GISS: +.55

[donsutherland1]

Final Guesses for the 2012 Global Temperature Anomalies:

GISS:

BethesdaWx: +0.53°C

Don Sutherland: +0.55°C

Frivolousz21: +0.53°C

Lake Effect King: +0.65°C

Matthewweatherwatcher: +0.56°C

Okie333: +0.50°C

Skierinvermont: +0.55°C

Snowstorms: +0.58°C

Mean Guess: +0.56°C

Lowest Guess: +0.50°C

Highest Guess: +0.65°C

UAH:

BethesdaWx: +0.17°C

Don Sutherland: +0.14°C

Frivolousz21: +0.23°C

Lake Effect King: +0.16°C

Matthewweatherwatcher: +0.15°C

Okie333: -0.11°C

Skierinvermont: +0.20°C

Snowstorms: +0.11°C

Mean Guess: +0.13°C

Lowest Guess: -0.11°C

Highest Guess: +0.23°C

[donsutherland1]

Through February, the anomalies were as follows:

GISS: +0.375°C

UAH: -0.095°C

[The_Global_Warmer]

UAH came out for March and UAH is now at -0.031C

Based on ENSO, I think everyone of us will bust to cold.

Geomag from another poster above favors a 3rd year Nina, so maybe ENSO will stop warming and go back to a NIna.

[donsutherland1]

Through May, the anomalies were as follows:

GISS: +0.484°C

UAH: +0.102°C

[The_Global_Warmer]

Through May, the anomalies were as follows:

GISS: +0.484°C

UAH: +0.102°C

Through May, the anomalies were as follows:

UAH: +0.148°C

[donsutherland1]

Through May, the anomalies were as follows:

UAH: +0.148°C

I believe the UAH reading you posted is through June. I didn't have the June figure when I posted the anomalies to date. I'm still waiting for GISS.