ocala Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Looks like a very wet week ahead, the wetter the further south and east you go. 12Z GFS has a 7-day qpf max of >14" east of Key Largo! Very impressive moisture fetch also evident on the TPW. With unsettled weather expected to linger well into May, and convection becoming more diurnally driven near the end of the period, this may be the event that ushers in the (early) wet season. I'm always a little jealous of you guys this time of year. Your rainy season starts well before ours up here. At least it should keep any Everglades fires in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 Looks like a very wet week ahead, the wetter the further south and east you go. 12Z GFS has a 7-day qpf max of >14" east of Key Largo! Very impressive moisture fetch also evident on the TPW. With unsettled weather expected to linger well into May, and convection becoming more diurnally driven near the end of the period, this may be the event that ushers in the (early) wet season. I agree. This is excellent news and the wetness will eventually cover the western third or half of the peninsula just from this west moving inverted trough. Upper level weakness retrogrades and that plus the Bermuda high and lower height field most or all of next week means showers on the daily. Also spreading inland to coastal La, Ms, Al and working inland through central /S. Ga by midweek. Really muggy airmass working in. I like how the GFS looks for a while into the month, with blocking in the north, and eventually below normal heights for the Southeast....many could get into a wet pattern...atleast wetter than April was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 I went to the airshow today in Ft. Lauderdale. It was cloudy all day and right before the Thunderbirds flew it poured. Once they finally came they only flew for a little bit until they had to cancel because of the low ceiling. I knew a couple going up there, and they were almost undoubtedly disappointed by the weather. I haven't seen the Thunderbirds, but I've seen the Blue Angels in fair weather and they're spectacular! I'm always a little jealous of you guys this time of year. Your rainy season starts well before ours up here. At least it should keep any Everglades fires in check. I agree. This is excellent news and the wetness will eventually cover the western third or half of the peninsula just from this west moving inverted trough. Upper level weakness retrogrades and that plus the Bermuda high and lower height field most or all of next week means showers on the daily. Also spreading inland to coastal La, Ms, Al and working inland through central /S. Ga by midweek. Really muggy airmass working in. I like how the GFS looks for a while into the month, with blocking in the north, and eventually below normal heights for the Southeast....many could get into a wet pattern...atleast wetter than April was. Yes, this is certainly good news! Water supplies are almost always at their lowest this time of year, so think most people would sacrifice a nice weekend if we can avoid the brush fires and water restrictions. Check out the HPC 5-day forecast. If anything, they're playing conservative compared to the last few runs of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 I knew a couple going up there, and they were almost undoubtedly disappointed by the weather. I haven't seen the Thunderbirds, but I've seen the Blue Angels in fair weather and they're spectacular! Yes, this is certainly good news! Water supplies are almost always at their lowest this time of year, so think most people would sacrifice a nice weekend if we can avoid the brush fires and water restrictions. Check out the HPC 5-day forecast. If anything, they're playing conservative compared to the last few runs of the GFS. GFS in my opinion appears to be suffering from convective feedback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted April 29, 2012 Author Share Posted April 29, 2012 main precip has had a tough time getting north of Palm Beach County yesterday and today looks the same so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 If you live on a line from Venice to Palm Beach southward, you will probably get some decent rain, but I don't believe that north of that line that you will see much in the way of rain until mid week based on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 GFS in my opinion appears to be suffering from convective feedback. You're right that the very "blotchy" precip pattern looks typical of convective feedback, and there probably is some feedback occurring. A lot of times when the GFS develops long-lived precip events in regions of QPF bombs (e.g. midewest MCSs) it's because the model is producing deep convective latent heating over much larger an area than actually occurs, and an artificial low pressure system develops right under the convection. However, in this event, I would argue that the long-lived nature of the heavy precip is a function a deep tropical moisture feed in the presence of a long-lived convergence zone - convergence of northerlies from the north and southerlies from the south, as well as speed convergence - strong easterly winds over the Bahamas slowing over S. FL. I think in this case we could be seeing some feedback occurring, but the environment actually supports a very heavy rain event, and even training convective clusters (below the resolution of the GFS), so something similar to what the GFS is showing is not as unreasonable as it otherwise would be. That and it has pretty good support from the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Seeing some rotation to the south of Key West. Although there is a lot of dry air over the eastern gulf which would probably keep anything from developing. Nice to dream though. Sure wish this ridge would lift to the north so we could enjoy some of the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 It's been cloudy and drizzly out but the heavy rain dies out before it moves this far inland. Wish it would all lift up a bit and get inland more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 30, 2012 Share Posted April 30, 2012 Miami seems to be close to the jackpot for this event. 1.34" so far today, 4.60" so far for the event (since Fri), and still raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted May 5, 2012 Share Posted May 5, 2012 Entering a wet period up here starting tomorrow afternoon. Looks to go through Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 7, 2012 Share Posted May 7, 2012 Drove back to upstate sc today from Orlando.saw a small brush fire being put out on side of 95 just outside of Orlando,and the city of Jacksonville was full of smoke! Must be dry down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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