toad strangler Posted April 20, 2012 Author Share Posted April 20, 2012 Still early but so far it looks like it will track through central Florida. Southern peninsula could get some wild weather but it looks like a just a good rain event up here. Never know it could go farther north though. I see when it gets up to New England it's going to be pretty deep. Like 992MB deep. Yeehaw! lol .... I am so looking forward to this event. I got plowed by well over an inch last night on the Treasure Coast to kick it all off. Sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 What could have been a great setup for severe weather has been plagued by stratiform rain and convective debris from this morning's MCS here in S. FL. Where even a small amount of sunshine occurred (N. FL) were seeing much more organized convection. Still at least two more opportunities for widespread convection for everyone this evening and late overnight as the cold front / surface trough (over E. Gulf, associated with greatest surface forcing) as well as the upper-low over the central Gulf (with very cold, -15C 500mb temps) move through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 What could have been a great setup for severe weather has been plagued by stratiform rain and convective debris from this morning's MCS here in S. FL. Where even a small amount of sunshine occurred (N. FL) were seeing much more organized convection. Still at least two more opportunities for widespread convection for everyone this evening and late overnight as the cold front / surface trough (over E. Gulf, associated with greatest surface forcing) as well as the upper-low over the central Gulf (with very cold, -15C 500mb temps) move through. Going to be an interesting late afternoon into the overnight hours. I am thinking we see quite a few reports of hail as the upper low moves through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 My pressure just dropped 1MB in 30 minutes. Fun should begin pretty soon as the intermittent sunshine is helping to kick off some convection in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Latest weather briefing NWS Miami Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 I have been in FL just 2 1/2 years so I did a quicky search on FL tornado outbreaks. (Not relating this to today and tonight at all) http://articles.cnn.com/1998-02-23/weather/9802_23_florida.storm.pm_1_violent-tornadoes-emergency-management-the-mobile-home?_s=PM:WEATHER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Just looking at the infrared the tops have really warmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 I have been in FL just 2 1/2 years so I did a quicky search on FL tornado outbreaks. (Not relating this to today and tonight at all) http://articles.cnn....e?_s=PM:WEATHER That was a pretty amazing event. I had just moved to Florida one month prior and lived not very far from where the touchdown occurred. One of the victims they mention Laura Christiana was the mother of one of my co-workers at the time. My co-worker Roger was then part of a piece in an HBO documentary that had a segment on the Kissimmee tornado and the victims at Ponderosa Mobile Home park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Thank all the Dense cloud cover just about all day long across SFL has really put a cap on heating today and has reduced any severewx across the area.ULL is now forecast to move a tad further north and has shifted the severe threat towards the lake. Flood watches will likely be lifted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted April 21, 2012 Author Share Posted April 21, 2012 Thank all the Dense cloud cover just about all day long across SFL has really put a cap on heating today and has reduced any severewx across the area.ULL is now forecast to move a tad further north and has shifted the severe threat towards the lake. Flood watches will likely be lifted. I am due east of the northern most part of the lake. Maybe still in the game for another good soaking. I have had two in the last three days. 3.5 inches total so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 21, 2012 Share Posted April 21, 2012 Going to be an interesting late afternoon into the overnight hours. I am thinking we see quite a few reports of hail as the upper low moves through. By the time the upper low actually gets here, the low levels could be quite stable. At this point, I'm willing to bet that there will be some pea-size hail storms, but most if not all below severe criteria. Oh well, I'll take what I can get Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Could be an interesting night tonight! Squall line approaching Tampa with a damaging wind threat, while more discrete convection and possibly supercells are developing further south in the region of greater low-level helicity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 186 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1110 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1110 PM UNTIL 700 AM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAINT PETERSBURG FLORIDA TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF MIAMI FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING OFF THE WEST COAST OF CENTRAL/SOUTH FL. THESE STORMS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION. COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT A FEW SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025. ...HART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Just called my parents and told them to pay attention tonight, this looks bad for South Florida, 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE and 0-1 km helicity of 200-400 m^2/s^2. This is scary stuff, really rare to have such a favorable setup. Also looks like the hotspot will be the western Florida coast from the coastal convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Small cell just fired SE of Naples w/ a 70 kt couplet. Every single cell that goes up is going to spin vigorously, making it intrinsically stronger (more spinning = more upward motion) and a tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo! Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 sitting here unwinding after work, wifes asleep, was just outside...its cranking..clouds flying by gonna be a fun nite in naples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 The radar coverage in the Fort Myers/Naples region is relatively terrible, it's going to be impossible to see low-level structure in alot of areas (besides metro Tampa and Miami areas), so we will have less of a handle on where tornadoes are. Lots of empty space too so alot won't be reported. Strong cell tracking just west of Sanibel and may hit a good part of western Fort Myers, probably could use a warning. Dynamics are so favorable some cells fired up on the east coast convergence line just east of Miami Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo! Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 yup on the radar issue. i find in my three years down in naples, i can get a good trend handle on what to expect by watching the key west and tampa radars and seeing the overall motion ..and there goes the warning...oop...just an extension of the special marine warning til 130edt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Just called my parents and told them to pay attention tonight, this looks bad for South Florida, 1000-2000 J/kg of CAPE and 0-1 km helicity of 200-400 m^2/s^2. This is scary stuff, really rare to have such a favorable setup. Also looks like the hotspot will be the western Florida coast from the coastal convergence. It IS quite rare to have such favorable dynamics so late in the season! If there is a saving grace tonight, it could be that the boundary layer is not particularly unstable, so even if we see rotating storms it could be hard to get vortex stretching all the way to the surface. That said, it can definitely still happen. yup on the radar issue. i find in my three years down in naples, i can get a good trend handle on what to expect by watching the key west and tampa radars and seeing the overall motion ..and there goes the warning...oop...just an extension of the special marine warning til 130edt. Be careful out there! You'll be first in the line of fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo! Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 its interesting i live off the gordon river by the kapf, and you can see them clearly when you look up the channel cut by the river. lightning out over the gulf and then usually bam. last night it felt like i never really slept deep due to the near constant thunder. tonite im amped up watching this unfold in my literal backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 It IS quite rare to have such favorable dynamics so late in the season! If there is a saving grace tonight, it could be that the boundary layer is not particularly unstable, so even if we see rotating storms it could be hard to get vortex stretching all the way to the surface. That said, it can definitely still happen. Be careful out there! You'll be first in the line of fire. The RUC analysis does show an SBL, but winds ahead of the squall line should mix it out via mechanical turbulence, so I don't see stable air near the ground being a significant factor in tornadogenesis tonight. Vigorous squall line now moving through Naples. Lots of interesting convective structures protruding from the line but radar still scanning around 10,000 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Looks like mainly a squall line event, wind shear isn't perpendicular enough to the line to support discrete cells for long, cells are being rapidly pulled in and linearized. This is a very strong squall line by SFL standards though, and any number of mesoscale effects could cause a segment to bow out and generate tornadoes. Especially when the squall interacts with the east coast convergence zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 22, 2012 Share Posted April 22, 2012 Looks like we dodged a bullet with that one. Time to enjoy some cool, refreshing temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted April 23, 2012 Author Share Posted April 23, 2012 Looks like we dodged a bullet with that one. Time to enjoy some cool, refreshing temperatures. In other words, anybody who completely disregarded the forecasts and went camping + 100 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 23, 2012 Share Posted April 23, 2012 In other words, anybody who completely disregarded the forecasts and went camping + 100 lol Campers would've gotten destroyed in that squall line. My parents told me it woke them up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Brrr! 40 degrees this morning. Almost tied the record at 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 24, 2012 Share Posted April 24, 2012 Brrr! 40 degrees this morning. Almost tied the record at 39. MIA only made it down to 60, a far cry from the record low of 50. However, the record coldest maximum for the day is 75 and we're only up to 71 at the moment. We should surpass 75 but it might be close! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Lovely thunderstorm here in West Palm Beach tonight. Unfortunately, the storm arrived just as the charcoal grill hit the right temperature to cook a late night chicken dinner. The one time I didn't want a storm to hit. . propane has its advantages, for sure.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 28, 2012 Share Posted April 28, 2012 Looks like a very wet week ahead, the wetter the further south and east you go. 12Z GFS has a 7-day qpf max of >14" east of Key Largo! Very impressive moisture fetch also evident on the TPW. With unsettled weather expected to linger well into May, and convection becoming more diurnally driven near the end of the period, this may be the event that ushers in the (early) wet season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted April 29, 2012 Share Posted April 29, 2012 I went to the airshow today in Ft. Lauderdale. It was cloudy all day and right before the Thunderbirds flew it poured. Once they finally came they only flew for a little bit until they had to cancel because of the low ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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