Eyewall2005 Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 MCS completely fell apart overnight. These things are very unpredictable and most of the time fall apart before moving over south Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 MCS completely fell apart overnight. These things are very unpredictable and most of the time fall apart before moving over south Florida. Can't recall many Winters where my area up here has been just about completeley devoid of any organized storms. I don't know what that means for the rainy/tropical season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Severe thunderstorm warning in NE Broward. More thunderstorms approaching from the west. SE FL is the only place in the country with a slight risk for severe weather today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Can't recall many Winters where my area up here has been just about completeley devoid of any organized storms. I don't know what that means for the rainy/tropical season. Serious business but not unprecedented. The last time this happened the population of sabre toothed tigers dropped 38%, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 We've had several heavy downpours today. The cell that just went through had some nice structure, and I think someone is getting hail in eastern Broward from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 We've had several heavy downpours today. The cell that just went through had some nice structure, and I think someone is getting hail in eastern Broward from it. Storm spotters reported hail and a wall cloud just south of the airport here. I couldn't see anything because it was raining too hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Severe threat for S.FL seems to be dwindling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 6, 2012 Share Posted April 6, 2012 Storm spotters reported hail and a wall cloud just south of the airport here. I couldn't see anything because it was raining too hard. Fairly sizable for SFL, not surprising given 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE and temperatures around -10 °C at 500 hPa. Nothing compared to the super hailstorm that managed to track directly over my house last summer. http://www.srh.noaa....fl/?n=12Jun2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Nothing compared to the super hailstorm that managed to track directly over my house last summer. I was living in Plantation when that happened, I wish I could have been through it! Well...at least when I had my old car that I didn't care about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 I was living in Plantation when that happened, I wish I could have been through it! Well...at least when I had my old car that I didn't care about. We had one of those last year. Lasted 28 minutes. 90% pea size and the other 10% marble. I wish my camcorder was working at the time. Defoliated all the tree tops and left our bannana tree pretty tattered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Another nice blast of cool air tonight. Forecasted lows are mid to upper 40's. Gotta love it this late in the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 79 °F as of 2 pm, a cool spring day for this latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 Convective showers developing due to steep lapse rates, 850 hPa temperatures is 11 °C over Miami this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 I've had a couple showers roll through at the airport, but the wind is really whipping today. It would feel great out if I didn't have to fight the wind to stand! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted April 7, 2012 Share Posted April 7, 2012 I've had a couple showers roll through at the airport, but the wind is really whipping today. It would feel great out if I didn't have to fight the wind to stand! I biked out past holiday park and got destroyed on the way back. 20-30 mph gusts from the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted April 8, 2012 Share Posted April 8, 2012 I know this is the Florida thread, but im close enough to Florida. Its smoke everywhere outside from that large wildfire on the GA/FL border. Its not going to rain any this week either. Man that's not good. This is the early morning discussion so im pretty sure it will include our area with the next discussion as our forecast now says areas of smoke. ...DRY WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK WILL PROMOTE DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS... .SHORT TERM...NOW THROUGH TUESDAY... EARLY THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING SOUTH OVER THE REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. MAIN IMPACT IS COUNTY LINE WILDFIRE OVER NORTHERN COLUMBIA COUNTY WHICH HAS GROWN TO 5000 ACRES AND E/SELY FLOW IS SPREADING SMOKE TOWARD THE WEST ACROSS CLINCH...ECHOLS AND HAMILTON COUNTIES AND WILL LEAVE DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY IN PLACE. Edit: Here is the update. ...DENSE SMOKE DRIFTING NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA COUNTY FIRE THIS MORNING... .UPDATE... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE SMOKE PLUME THAT IS BEING GENERATED FROM THE MASSIVE WILDFIRE IN EXTREME NORTHEAST COLUMBIA COUNTY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE LOW LEVEL PLUME HAS SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTH WITH REPORTS OF HEAVY SMOKE IN MANOR AND ALMA GEORGIA. AMG HAS RECENTLY REPORTED VISIBILITIES OF 1/4SM IN SMOKE BUT HAS SINCE CLIMBED TO 1/2SM. THE AREA NORTH OF THE FIRE WILL SEE GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY AS MIXING BECOMES STRONGER. THE LATEST HYSPLIT RUNS SUGGEST THAT THE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT CLOCKWISE TOWARDS THE EAST AND PUSH INTO THE JACKSONVILLE AREA TONIGHT. LOW VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN JACKSONVILLE AND A DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AS FAR EAST AS JACKSONVILLE. WE WILL HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS LATER IN THE DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted April 9, 2012 Share Posted April 9, 2012 I was looking at a long vis loop of that fire yesterday. Luckily the smoke didn't make it down to Ocala. In all likely hood it probably won't either. I hope. Not too surprised a fire started in that area. It seems every year there is a major fire in that area. Was really hoping for some rain with this past system but we're pretty much going to be dry until June. Todays KBDI doesn't look good for the rest of the peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted April 10, 2012 Author Share Posted April 10, 2012 I was looking at a long vis loop of that fire yesterday. Luckily the smoke didn't make it down to Ocala. In all likely hood it probably won't either. I hope. Not too surprised a fire started in that area. It seems every year there is a major fire in that area. Was really hoping for some rain with this past system but we're pretty much going to be dry until June. Todays KBDI doesn't look good for the rest of the peninsula. Dry season entrenchment. Exciting ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 I spoke to early. That smoke made it here today. Man it's nasty out. Luckily the front coming through this afternoon should help clear it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted April 11, 2012 Share Posted April 11, 2012 Ash is currently falling pretty good in Mandarin, south Jacksonville, from what my friends are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted April 13, 2012 Share Posted April 13, 2012 Raining pretty good in Fort Lauderdale right now. Scattered boomers all over the metro area. Hopefully it can rain all day because we really could use it (not as bad as you guys up north though.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 14, 2012 Share Posted April 14, 2012 Couple of bands of heavier showers (and did I hear a rumble of thunder?) developing down here. Cells are very slow moving, so favored, localized regions could see some decent rain tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted April 16, 2012 Share Posted April 16, 2012 First pic is Orange Lake in northern Marion County. Taken in 10/10. Second pic is Orange Lake taken this weekend. From what I hear there is some water left way out in the middle beyond the tree line in the distance. This is typical of many lakes around here. Need several TS to get back to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 First pic is Orange Lake in northern Marion County. Taken in 10/10. Second pic is Orange Lake taken this weekend. From what I hear there is some water left way out in the middle beyond the tree line in the distance. This is typical of many lakes around here. Need several TS to get back to normal. That's what happens when you have lakes that are 2 feet deep. Very sensitive to changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Wohoo! Chance of rain the next 5 days. I sure hope one of those days is a soaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricanelonny Posted April 17, 2012 Share Posted April 17, 2012 Wohoo! Chance of rain the next 5 days. I sure hope one of those days is a soaker. Looking better each day for rain towards the end of the week. Long term...Saturday through Tuesday...models continue to indicate the development of sharp trough across central portions of the country by Friday and developing a cut-off low over the lower MS valley/northern Gulf by Saturday. As this system moves slowly eastward, unsettled conditions should begin to spread across the peninsula. Both GFS and European model (ecmwf) indicate strong upper level divergence, good Omega values...strong low lvel jet (30-40 kts at 850 mb) and good Li values as a squall line feature ahead of the low moves across South Florida sometime Sunday during the day. This could lead to the development of strong and possibly severe storms across the local area. However...is too early and there is to much uncertainty at this time to pinpoint neither timing nor location of any possible severe weather at this time. This weather situation will continue to be monitor and adjustments to the forecast will be made as necessary. Once this system moves out of the area we should return to drier conditions by the early portion of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Waiting for tonight's 00Z guidance, but it looks like there could be some organized severe weather this weekend. A few forecast soundings were showing as much as 40 to almost 50 kts of 0-6 km shear in the presence of >1500 J/kg CAPE. Still a bit unsure about storm mode. SPC and NWS suggest a squall line developing but models have lots of precip out ahead of the front, so multi-cells with embedded supercells not out of the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 I agree icebreaker...It wouldn't surprise me to see a few spinners out ahead of that squall line....I wouldn't mind doing a little chasin...haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyewall2005 Posted April 19, 2012 Share Posted April 19, 2012 Still watching models which have been converging on a squall line for late Sat night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted April 20, 2012 Share Posted April 20, 2012 Still early but so far it looks like it will track through central Florida. Southern peninsula could get some wild weather but it looks like a just a good rain event up here. Never know it could go farther north though. I see when it gets up to New England it's going to be pretty deep. Like 992MB deep. Yeehaw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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