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Florida Dry + Fire Season


toad strangler

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Well, up here it was a front. 83 degrees on Thursday and a nice 40 degrees for a low this morning.

Too bad it couldn't have hung up a little further north for you guys.

You are pretty much north central FL based on your screen name right? Plus you are on the west coast and from my 2.5 years here have noticed that you guys up there always get the better of these winter fronts. I was hoping it would hold together but it fell apart to almost nothing IMBY. Some clouds and the lightest sprinkles you will ever see. Not much temp change either.

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You are pretty much north central FL based on your screen name right? Plus you are on the west coast and from my 2.5 years here have noticed that you guys up there always get the better of these winter fronts. I was hoping it would hold together but it fell apart to almost nothing IMBY. Some clouds and the lightest sprinkles you will ever see. Not much temp change either.

North central Fla but not on the west coast. I am right in the middle. It's about 50 miles to either coast from my house.

You are right about the west coast getting the better of these fronts. For what ever reason they hit land and dissipate.

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I am headed down to boynton Beach next week for 10 days. What is the weather forecast? Am I going to be able to get in a lot of fun in the sun?

thanks :)

North central Fla but not on the west coast. I am right in the middle. It's about 50 miles to either coast from my house.

You are right about the west coast getting the better of these fronts. For what ever reason they hit land and dissipate.

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I am headed down to boynton Beach next week for 10 days. What is the weather forecast? Am I going to be able to get in a lot of fun in the sun?

thanks :)

Here you go.

http://www.accuweath...-weather/328171

Just keep in mind that far out is kind of a crap shoot.

Hope the weather is great but we are hoping for some rain as things are mighty dry in the peninsula.

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From the NWS:

Miami Doppler Radar Dual Polarization Upgrade COMPLETE

The Dual Polarization upgrade to the National Weather Service Miami Doppler Radar (KAMX) was completed on February 6, 2012. The radar is once again fully accessible and operational. Adjacent National Weather Service Doppler radars in Key West (KBYX) and Melbourne (KMLB) have also been upgraded with this technology. Tampa is currently scheduled for the upgrade Feb. 27 - Mar. 11.

It's been a nice departure from the dry weather to see some convection off the coast. Looks like a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm may develop over the peninsula this evening.

In addition to the scattered showers we've been seeing lately, a significant precipitation event may be setting up somewhere across FL this weekend. Exactly where the surface front stalls out will determine whether the Keys, south, central, or north Florida receive the most rain. A number of small shortwaves will be rotating through the base of the longwave trough, occasionally enhancing vertical motion and attendant precip. The subtropical jet will also be stronger than we've seen most of this winter. Shear profiles look good, although instability may be a limiting factor for severe weather. More will be revealed as we get closer to the event.

12Z GFS 144 hr precip:

post-378-0-07962300-1328633590.gif

102 hr forecast sounding from GFS. High shear but low CAPE.

post-378-0-48828800-1328633782.png

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Man I sure hope you are right ice. Last I heard the models were trending north but that was last night.

Also, last night got 1.60 in the bucket! That's almost as much as Nov, Dec, and January combined. Even some thunder to along with it.

I saw one place in north Dade had 4.80.

Would be great if we could get a statewide soaking.

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Man I sure hope you are right ice. Last I heard the models were trending north but that was last night.

Also, last night got 1.60 in the bucket! That's almost as much as Nov, Dec, and January combined. Even some thunder to along with it.

I saw one place in north Dade had 4.80.

Would be great if we could get a statewide soaking.

1.60? That's pretty good, probably about what I got.

Looks like the Euro is going with a statewide soaker Fri night / Sat morning, quickly dries things out, then brings in some heavier precip for the southern half of the state by Mon night. So certainly some disagreement with GFS.

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I'll be back to Florida on Thursday. Forgot how crazy I used to be w/ snow while still living in NJ. Not really sure why. Had about 5 or 6 inches about a month ago and it was more of a pain in the ass than anything. So boring having highs in 40's and lows in upper 20's for weeks on end. I'd rather it be 80 and sunny or real winter weather.

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Yea but tropical season more than makes up for it. Imagine forecasting an Andrew or Charley?

I wish I could say that, but I've been here for 2 tropical seasons and the closest I got to a tropical cyclone was some of Irene's weak outer bands. The seabreeze convection is interesting but it is usually disorganized and it is very rare to get a good supercell or even a squall line. The overall most interesting weather event was the rain from the Rina leftovers last October. I didn't even know it was possible for it to rain that hard.

I'm not necessarily complaining about the weather though--I love running and biking so the winter weather is incredible for those activities.

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I wish I could say that, but I've been here for 2 tropical seasons and the closest I got to a tropical cyclone was some of Irene's weak outer bands. The seabreeze convection is interesting but it is usually disorganized and it is very rare to get a good supercell or even a squall line. The overall most interesting weather event was the rain from the Rina leftovers last October. I didn't even know it was possible for it to rain that hard.

I'm not necessarily complaining about the weather though--I love running and biking so the winter weather is incredible for those activities.

This is how my screen name came about. :)

You ain't seen nothin yet :lol: Getting stuck over a stat late afternoon rainy season t-storm in these parts is surreal to say the least. FL Rainy season FTW.

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Much more rare than a block buster blizzard in the I95 corridor. Almost all tropical seasons in specific locations are flat out duds.

A hurricane like Andrew, yea. But they are still kept busy tracking the tropics from June-November whether or not anything hits. And with the amount of lives on the line when a storm does hit, I'm sure the boredom more than makes up for it. LOL.

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I wish I could say that, but I've been here for 2 tropical seasons and the closest I got to a tropical cyclone was some of Irene's weak outer bands. The seabreeze convection is interesting but it is usually disorganized and it is very rare to get a good supercell or even a squall line. The overall most interesting weather event was the rain from the Rina leftovers last October. I didn't even know it was possible for it to rain that hard.

I'm not necessarily complaining about the weather though--I love running and biking so the winter weather is incredible for those activities.

I've been down there since Nov. of 2008. Pisses me off I'm missing the best weather of the year but it couldn't be avoided.

And yea, it's nuts when it rains during a tropical storm/wave. I never saw it rain so hard as I did during Bonnie even though it was only raining for a few hours.

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A toad strangler is such a great name for a downpour. I wish it would rain like that more often.

A blizzard is definitely more common than a TC landfall. I grew up in WI and we had about 1-2 nice 8"+ snowstorms per year and a good foot+ blizzard every 2-3 years. In the spring-summer you could always count on several severe outbreaks. My experience of 100+ mph mile straight-line winds was the closest I ever got to what a hurricane would be like (for 5 minutes).

But what made WI really cool was the crazy anomalous stuff that happened all the time. Snow in October and May. Tornado outbreak in January. Wild 50+ degree temperature fluctuations in a few hours. Flash flooding turning a creek into a raging river in 1 hour. Waking up to a surprise 6" of snow after a random lake effect band moved onshore. Even when it wasn't completely crazy, the weather was always changing and sometimes you honestly had no idea what was coming.

I study TCs now and it is plenty exciting for me. But it's all remote sensing, and I could be doing this from Alaska. There is also something really amazing about how a coastal area can see nothing significant for 50+ years and then suddenly have a Cat 4-5 storm bearing down. They are really unique monsters--but still just little swirls compared with any decent mid-latitude cyclone.

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