toad strangler Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Late season rains for many locations combined with an excellent rainy season even without help from the tropics in South and Central Florida have helped combat the general drought of the past 1.5 years and provided a head start on deflecting an early onset to the fire season. With that said we all know that things can and will dry out quickly statewide without at least normal precip from winter fronts passing through. Todays frontal passage dropped .10 IMBY along with welcomed cooler temps. Discuss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted December 29, 2011 Author Share Posted December 29, 2011 54 now and heading to maybe 43 tonight on the Treasure Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flweathernerd Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Pretty "chilly" night down here in South Florida. It's a welcome change. Too bad it won't be around long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 No sub 32 degree days for December after 16 last year. Also only .24 in the rain bucket and 48.79 for the year which is about 3 inches below normal. That being said the lakes up this way are very low. On the plus side with no freezes the fire danger is low because everything is still growing. We'll see what January brings. Happy new year everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 It's looking like an awfully cold start to the New Year for FL! (though still not quite as cold as Jan 2010) 500 mb heights should fall to about 560 dam over the northern half of the state, which is a -4 sigma anomaly! Coldest T850s arrive Tue at 18Z, with chilly -8C in the northeast corner of the state to a still pleasant +9C over the Keys as the trough fails to deepen quite enough to really chill the folks to the south. I wouldn't be surprised to see temps in the upper teens in the Live Oak / Lake City area Wed morning, and freezing temps down to about West Palm Beach Enjoy it while it lasts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 It's looking like an awfully cold start to the New Year for FL! (though still not quite as cold as Jan 2010) 500 mb heights should fall to about 560 dam over the northern half of the state, which is a -4 sigma anomaly! Coldest T850s arrive Tue at 18Z, with chilly -8C in the northeast corner of the state to a still pleasant +9C over the Keys as the trough fails to deepen quite enough to really chill the folks to the south. I wouldn't be surprised to see temps in the upper teens in the Live Oak / Lake City area Wed morning, and freezing temps down to about West Palm Beach Enjoy it while it lasts! The cold front is moving through the Treasure Coast right now. Wind has picked up but temps have yet to fall off. It's coming! There is a wind chill advisory tonight for MBY. Melbourne says down to 34 tonight with wind chills in the mid 20's. Freeze watch also in effect. My Hibiscus and Christmas Palms are not going to be happy. But I am. Also, the first Fire Weather Watch is out as well. Right on cue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Late season rains for many locations combined with an excellent rainy season even without help from the tropics in South and Central Florida have helped combat the general drought of the past 1.5 years and provided a head start on deflecting an early onset to the fire season. With that said we all know that things can and will dry out quickly statewide without at least normal precip from winter fronts passing through. Todays frontal passage dropped .10 IMBY along with welcomed cooler temps. Discuss! I also wanted to mention, while it has been a wet start to the dry season in your back yard, and there have been quite a few light rain events state-wide, the lack of any significant rain events / squall lines has in fact left S. FL drier than average the last 2 months... in typical La Nina fashion. Of course we're still riding the huge surplus rains of Oct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted January 2, 2012 Author Share Posted January 2, 2012 I also wanted to mention, while it has been a wet start to the dry season in your back yard, and there have been quite a few light rain events state-wide, the lack of any significant rain events / squall lines has in fact left S. FL drier than average the last 2 months... in typical La Nina fashion. Of course we're still riding the huge surplus rains of Oct. MBY is in St. Lucie County which is showing over 100% in the time frame. I knew I lucked out Anyway, cool / cold dry air like what is coming in now will dry out everything quickly heading into the meat of the fire season as mentioned earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShannonW Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Last I checked, 62F in MBY, headed to 40s. Not a fan of winter cold, or the dry fire season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted January 3, 2012 Share Posted January 3, 2012 Got to 31 here last night. Man this is some really dry air. About 9:30 this morning the DP was 5. Also I guess there was a secondary surge of cold air about 2AM. The wind really picked up with the DP and humidity crashing. Calling for lower 20's tonight but this wind really has to lay down to get near that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted January 4, 2012 Author Share Posted January 4, 2012 Got to 31 here last night. Man this is some really dry air. About 9:30 this morning the DP was 5. Also I guess there was a secondary surge of cold air about 2AM. The wind really picked up with the DP and humidity crashing. Calling for lower 20's tonight but this wind really has to lay down to get near that. Dry air it certainly is. Just hours after the "meat" of this air mass intruded on me my truck door hinges and my garage to house door hinges started squeaking alot worse than any neighbors dog could bark at night. WD40 FTW on that note. Melbourne is telling me 30 for tonight on the TC. Sub freezing! The strongest cold shot since January 2010 although if it will be much more short lived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted January 5, 2012 Share Posted January 5, 2012 Almost made 19 Tuesday morning. 20.1 was the low. This AM it hit 25. Just not used to this stuff. Brrr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted January 6, 2012 Author Share Posted January 6, 2012 Almost made 19 Tuesday morning. 20.1 was the low. This AM it hit 25. Just not used to this stuff. Brrr. Increased moisture last night led to light frost IMBY this morning and I hit 37. We took the plants from the screened porch in two nights in a row. Not needed tonight as the low 40's will be the worst of it. Upward from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 I was looking at the PWAT map and that dry air almost made it to the northern coast of Honduras. Some possible rain on the horizon for next week. Man the lakes and rivers up are getting low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted January 7, 2012 Share Posted January 7, 2012 Up into the mid-70s here, feels like I'm being boiled alive when I go outside after being in Wisconsin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted January 12, 2012 Share Posted January 12, 2012 This is from the NWS in Key West. Any of you mets ever heard of a Wake Low Pressure. That's a new one on me. 000 NOUS42 KKEY 120530 CCA PNSKEY PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL 1230 AM THU JAN 12 2012 ...WAKE LOW PRESSURE PRODUCES STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE KEYS... A RARE WEATHER PHENOMENON KNOWN AS A WAKE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CREATED STRONG WINDS THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY. A SQUALL LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS POSITIONED WELL AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVED SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOWER KEYS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS. SURFACE PRESSURES TO NORTH OF THIS SQUALL LINE BEGAN TO FLUCTUATE...AND RAPIDLY SINKING AIR ON THE FRINGE OF A RAIN SHIELD THAT TRAVERSED THE KEYS RESULTED IN STRONG WIND GUSTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE ISLAND CHAIN WERE REPORTED IN THE UPPER KEYS NEAR TAVERNIER...WHERE A TRAINED SPOTTER MEASURED A PEAK GUST OF 51 MPH JUST BEFORE 500 PM. A LARGE TREE WAS TOPPLED NEAR TAVERNIER...REPORTEDLY CAUSING DAMAGE TO A WATER LINE. ANOTHER TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED THAT THE BAYSIDE CANALS NEAR TAVERNIER WERE EMPTIED DUE TO THE PERSISTENTLY STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS...AND BOATS WERE RESTING CANAL BOTTOMS. THE HIGHEST WIND SPEEDS WERE MEASURED AT THE ELEVATED COASTAL MARINE AUTOMATED NETWORK (CMAN) STATIONS ALONG THE FLORIDA REEF. WIND SPEEDS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. PLEASE SEE OUR LOCAL STORM REPORT TEXT PRODUCTS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AS DAMAGE REPORTS ARE RELAYED TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE. A SUMMARY OF SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND PEAK GUSTS FROM SELECTED SENSORS THROUGHOUT THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE LISTED IN THE TABLE BELOW. ...REPORTED SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND PEAK WIND GUSTS (MPH)... STATION SUSTAINED PEAK GUST TIME (EST) ------- --------- ---------- ---------- SAND KEY LIGHT (CMAN) 35 47 5:31 PM KEY WEST NWS (RSOIS) 41 4:22 PM KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL (ASOS) 31 39 4:59 PM BOCA CHICA NAS (ASOS) 25 39 5:51 PM CUDJOE KEY (MESONET) 29 40 3:44 PM RAMROD KEY (MESONET) 27 43 6:21 PM SOMBRERO KEY LIGHT (CMAN) 41 59 6:29 PM MARATHON AIRPORT (ASOS) 25 38 4:32 PM LONG KEY LIGHT (CMAN) 30 46 4:29 PM UPPER MATECUMBE KEY (WEATHERFLOW) 37 4:50 PM TAVERNIER (TRAINED SPOTTER) 51 4:45 PM SOUTH KEY LARGO (WEATHERFLOW) 40 5:05 PM MOLASSES REEF LIGHT (CMAN) 50 59 4:58 PM $$ NELSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted January 16, 2012 Share Posted January 16, 2012 Well MLB's dual-pol upgrade is taking longer than expected... but in the mean time, looks like the weather will continue to be nice... and boring. It's a good thing we didn't get any severe weather during the upgrade though I suppose. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 1015 PM EST SUN JAN 15 2012 ...RETURN TO SERVICE OF THE NWS MELBOURNE WSR-88D (KMLB) FROM THE DUAL POLARIZATION UPGRADE WILL BE DELAYED BY AT LEAST 1 TO 2 DAYS... THE KMLB WSR-88D RADAR (KMLB) FAILED POST-UPGRADE CALIBRATION TESTS THIS WEEKEND. DIAGNOSES BY TECHNICIANS HAS DETERMINED THAT SOME PARTS WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED...AND THESE PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDERED. THIS WILL DELAY THE RETURN OF THE RADAR TO SERVICE BY AT LEAST 1 TO 2 DAYS - MAKING THE TENTATIVE ESTIMATED DATE OF RETURN TO SERVICE NO SOONER THAN TUESDAY JANUARY 17TH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted January 17, 2012 Author Share Posted January 17, 2012 Well MLB's dual-pol upgrade is taking longer than expected... but in the mean time, looks like the weather will continue to be nice... and boring. It's a good thing we didn't get any severe weather during the upgrade though I suppose. Boring it is. Every day is the same lol. That was a nice quick cool shot though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted January 20, 2012 Share Posted January 20, 2012 Woohoo!! .36 in the bucket. They have issued a boating hazard warning up here because the lakes are so low. Man if this goes through May this dry there won't be any lakes left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 I'm starting to miss diurnal convection. We haven't even had a half-decent squall line this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 What's wrong with you guys? Not a single post about The Senator? To be fair, I never heard of it until it burned down. But still... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 21, 2012 Share Posted January 21, 2012 What's wrong with you guys? Not a single post about The Senator? To be fair, I never heard of it until it burned down. But still... Actually, I hadn't even heard about it till I looked it up just now. Kinda strange, because I watch a lot of news, I must have just missed this story. Here it is for those interested: http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/21/us/disbelief-still-as-florida-reacts-to-burning-of-3500-year-old-tree.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted January 22, 2012 Share Posted January 22, 2012 I'm starting to miss diurnal convection. We haven't even had a half-decent squall line this winter. That is odd that we haven't had one yet. I mean January is more then half over and there isn't anything on the horizon either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted January 24, 2012 Author Share Posted January 24, 2012 Bump to keep this thread on life support as we suffer through this persistent boring and perfectly gorgeous weather that is in effect forever more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 25, 2012 Share Posted January 25, 2012 Anyone else catch the meteorite / shooting star at about 7:45 pm yesterday? It was pretty amazing, probably almost as bright as an airplane but traveling 10-100 times faster. One of my colleagues also saw it. Might have only been visible in Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Possibility of thunder on Friday? Maybe? Lol... not a lot going on right now. THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO APPROACH SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND INCREASE WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH. INTRODUCED THUNDER INTO THE FORECAST FOR NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF OSCEOLA COUNTY TO JUST NORTH OF THE CAPE...AS MODELS INDICATE A LEAD SHORTWAVE ADVECTING ACROSS THIS AREA OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWING MINOR ELEVATED INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY MORNING...SUPPORTING ENHANCED THUNDER CHANCES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE. MAIN WAVE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. GFS IS THE STRONGEST MODEL WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AS IT MOVES OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA...DEPICTING A SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT AT H50 WITH A CLOSED LOW. THIS SOLUTION ALSO KEEPS THE SURFACE LOW IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FLORIDA AS OPPOSED TO THE ECMWF PULLING IT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC BY MID FRIDAY AFTERNOON. STABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN LIMITING FACTOR DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND AND A SLOWLY DECAYING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hypatia Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Hey... we've got a day 2 "see text"! Seems kinda silly to be so excited. ...FL PENINSULA... BANDS OF CONVECTION INCLUDING AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN PROGRESS EARLY FRIDAY OVER THE NRN/CNTRL FL PENINSULA. ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION AND WILL RESIDE ALONG TAIL END OF LLJ. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS AND ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH A THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND. HOWEVER...TENDENCY WILL BE FOR LOW LEVEL WINDS TO VEER AND WEAKEN WITH TIME AS ZONE OF DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LLJ BEGINS TO LIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE REGION WHICH MAY LIMIT DURATION OF ANY SEVERE THREAT. WILL THEREFORE MAINTAIN 5% PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK...BUT AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN DAY 1 UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted January 27, 2012 Share Posted January 27, 2012 While it looks like the frontal passage tonight and tomorrow is the main event for most of the peninsula, it will be after the front stalls this weekend and well into next week that we actually get to see out rain here from about Okeechobee on south. Dynamics are forecast to fall apart as the convective line approaches, but increasing surface convergence coupled with tropical moisture re-energize the front over the weekend, bringing us the best chances of rain in a while. I'm looking forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ocala Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 While it looks like the frontal passage tonight and tomorrow is the main event for most of the peninsula, it will be after the front stalls this weekend and well into next week that we actually get to see out rain here from about Okeechobee on south. Dynamics are forecast to fall apart as the convective line approaches, but increasing surface convergence coupled with tropical moisture re-energize the front over the weekend, bringing us the best chances of rain in a while. I'm looking forward to it. That front was another dud up here. Looked great coming in but the line fell apart. Received .13 in the bucket. For comparison sake last year I had 5.68 for January. So far this year I'm at .59. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 That front was another dud up here. Looked great coming in but the line fell apart. Received .13 in the bucket. For comparison sake last year I had 5.68 for January. So far this year I'm at .59. Front? What front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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