BethesdaWX Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 It's late December. Statistics < Current processes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 0z GFS upper energy looks really good on January 5, FWIW. It is colder too the east of the H5 troff than it is too the west of it. That's why it fizzels on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 It is still me beating a dead horse but the MJO HAS TO get out of 5 for us to have a shot. It also gets me to thinking which is more important to get the ball rolling pattern wise. We have started to see that with the +PNA a buckling of the persistence with no NA blocking. Is this bend in pattern enough to get things finally where we need even if it isn't immediate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Supposedly 00z EURO ensemble mean was a bit better... had a low closer to the coast. Not sure if it got any precip back towards us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Supposedly 00z EURO ensemble mean was a bit better... had a low closer to the coast. Not sure if it got any precip back towards us If history has taught us anything it's that there will probably be at least one model run between now and Sunday that will show something nice....most of us have learned not to get sucked back in again but there are some that will jump on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 hows the jma looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 hows the jma looking? Ji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 hows the jma looking? The same as the CRAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Ji? ji is probably being talked down from a tall building right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 12z GFS says we don't make it above 30 on Tuesday.. lows in the teens in suburbs.. sngle digits in mts. Wednesday will be a smidge warmer, but highs will be under freezing as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Thursday/Friday looks a smidge interesting, not much, but meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 If history has taught us anything it's that there will probably be at least one model run between now and Sunday that will show something nice....most of us have learned not to get sucked back in again but there are some that will jump on it Second shortwave coming through would be the one that should be watched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Thursday/Friday looks a smidge interesting, not much, but meh Well it did till it decided to cut off at h5 and then go SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Another shutout on the 12z gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Another shutout on the 12z gfs It is, but it's cold. I suppose that's step 1. According to the folks with the access to the long-range (post Day 10) Euro ensembles in the NE forum, they are consistently showing signs of the Pac improving and changing. Definitely not looking like the torch to start January that we assumed a week ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 It is, but it's cold. I suppose that's step 1. According to the folks with the access to the long-range (post Day 10) Euro ensembles in the NE forum, they are consistently showing signs of the Pac improving and changing. Definitely not looking like the torch to start January that we assumed a week ago. Yes, which is good news. We really need to get the GOA low to GTFO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 It is, but it's cold. I suppose that's step 1. According to the folks with the access to the long-range (post Day 10) Euro ensembles in the NE forum, they are consistently showing signs of the Pac improving and changing. Definitely not looking like the torch to start January that we assumed a week ago. If that holds, then it looks like a lot of assumptions so far this winter will have been a bit misguided. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTJustice Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Wow, it's snowing here in Leesburg. Must be the PV interacting with the Outlet Mall out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostbite_falls Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Nice light snow falling in Jarrettsville MD--just started a few minutes ago. Pretty and totally unexpected (by me anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 It is, but it's cold. I suppose that's step 1. According to the folks with the access to the long-range (post Day 10) Euro ensembles in the NE forum, they are consistently showing signs of the Pac improving and changing. Definitely not looking like the torch to start January that we assumed a week ago. Let's hope that's right as the 216hr euro from 12Z is downright ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 this upcoming cold seems more like a burp than anything. pattern still looks pretty much the same going forward... we're just getting to the climo coldest period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 this upcoming cold seems more like a burp than anything. pattern still looks pretty much the same going forward... we're just getting to the climo coldest period Full blown diarrhea usually starts with a little burp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 this upcoming cold seems more like a burp than anything. pattern still looks pretty much the same going forward... we're just getting to the climo coldest period Sure seems that way, of course we can hope this 216 hr euro is a wrong as the one that had the big storm on it. The difference is when the models forecast warm they seem to be right more often than when they go cold and stormy for us. I'm sure that's an illusion and a faulty memory but sometimes it seems that way. I don't see a real change in pattern but when it changes it probalby will hit me in the head I'll be so late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Full blown diarrhea usually starts with a little burp Great analogy . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Sure seems that way, of course we can hope this 216 hr euro is a wrong as the one that had the big storm on it. The difference is when the models forecast warm they seem to be right more often than when they go cold and stormy for us. I'm sure that's an illusion and a faulty memory but sometimes it seems that way. I don't see a real change in pattern but when it changes it probalby will hit me in the head I'll be so late. If you don't make it snow soon i am about to hit you in the head . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 this upcoming cold seems more like a burp than anything. pattern still looks pretty much the same going forward... we're just getting to the climo coldest period The GFS ensemble mean looks like it likes the flattening of the ridge and putting a weak negative anomaly over the southwest. The ridge retrogression towards a negative PNa/positive epo look with a positive noa would give us some warm days. The only good think you can say is the models ahve not been stellar so their look could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 If you don't make it snow soon i am about to hit you in the head . I'm always more popular in a snowy pattern, everyone loved me in 2009-2010 except probably JI in the middle of Jan and again in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I'm always more popular in a snowy pattern, everyone loved me in 2009-2010 except probably JI in the middle of Jan and again in March. You are always popular Wes, for someone who knows everything you are so patient with all of us weenies. This is just starting to tick me off because it is looking more and more like we will be shut out until at least Jan 15th and even that date is best case scenario . According to the Euro weeklies we are screwed until the last week in Jan. No snow makes me irrational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The GFS ensemble mean looks like it likes the flattening of the ridge and putting a weak negative anomaly over the southwest. The ridge retrogression towards a negative PNa/positive epo look with a positive noa would give us some warm days. The only good think you can say is the models ahve not been stellar so their look could be wrong. i think your call for jan is unfortunately pretty good. we're almost never not going to have an arctic outbreak or two during the winter. it's not going to last long tho it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 i think your call for jan is unfortunately pretty good. we're almost never not going to have an arctic outbreak or two during the winter. it's not going to last long tho it seems. I'm feeling good about it today. If if works, Bob Chill will be the man. I just liked his stats and of course Don's. If we get a surprise and the models flip then of course it's Bob's fault. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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