Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

January 2012 Storm Threats and Discussion


PhineasC

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.7k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

He sure does get the CWG's panties in a bunch though huh

does he? maybe i missed that one. i dont think cwg 'plays' people on social media quite as much as other mets do at least so maybe that's part of it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

does he? maybe i missed that one. i dont think cwg 'plays' people on social media quite as much as other mets do at least so maybe that's part of it.

I just think their most recent post was just as much about getting likes and responses as Dave's was...but that's just my opinion....which isn't much in this case.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Day trip is no problem. Even during upslope events the only bad driving conditions are at the end of the drive from Frostburg on I-68 and then on the stretch of 219 to McHenry. You don't even neet to go that far if you don't want to. Since you're just chasing you can stop at the top of Keyser's ridge and enjoy there. You can easily get to Keyser's in less than 3 hours from your area.

The ridge does the best with WNW-NW flow. Any more northerly or westerly component can shut it down pretty easily. LWX does a great job forecasting western MD upslope. If they throw up a warning it's a safe bet that it's gonna dump.

I went out there in January last year. We got 17" over 3 days and it was all upslope. Cold dry powder........I don't even remember what that looks like anymore.

LWX doesn't do the warnings for Garrett. Watch NWS Pitt for the warnings.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just think their most recent post was just as much about getting likes and responses as Dave's was...but that's just my opinion....which isn't much in this case.

i didnt see it till just now. i dunno. i understand the point of social media but i'm not a big fan of how it's used by orgs and such overall on many levels. i do think cwg at least tries to be honest and forthright with things which i cant say about other folks all the time. but yeah everyone's in it for likes and all that ****.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

to get down to Deep Creek, yeah

but one Saturday I made it from my house to the Garrett County line in only 2 hrs. and 5 minutes

obviously, clear sailing at 75-80 mph all the way

for those that may not know, you start to get decent lake effect once at Frostburg

That is true and if you can haul ass it is obviously shorter. We stop for coffee and take our time winding down through McHenry and then to Oakland which is even further SW.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 18z GFS run for Jan 4 shows the storm closer to the coast than the 12z run. Maybe we can still pull a rabbit out of the hat on this one. Plenty of cold it seems. The disappointing setup went east of the EURO fantasy run of a couple of days ago but maybe it will back up closer towards the coast over time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was thinking back to if we were as despondent in 2001, 2004, 2006, 2008 at this point and I am pretty sure we were. I got double digits in 3 of those 4 winters. But the knowledge that we will probably end up with 8"+ doesn't isn't helping. I am as angry and sad as ever. I was angrier on 12/27/10 but there wasn't a sadness. It was just rage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was thinking back to if we were as despondent in 2001, 2004, 2006, 2008 at this point and I am pretty sure we were. I got double digits in 3 of those 4 winters. But the knowledge that we will probably end up with 8"+ doesn't isn't helping. I am as angry and sad as ever. I was angrier on 12/27/10 but there wasn't a sadness. It was just rage.

I get annoyed with every model run. I look for something, ANYTHING that is redeeming and there is nothing there. I am even looking at the GFS beyond 180 hours...even beyond 240 hours knowing damn full well how stupid it is. But I need to see something. Times are hard and I see us wallowing for 2 more weeks at least.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was thinking back to if we were as despondent in 2001, 2004, 2006, 2008 at this point and I am pretty sure we were. I got double digits in 3 of those 4 winters. But the knowledge that we will probably end up with 8"+ doesn't isn't helping. I am as angry and sad as ever. I was angrier on 12/27/10 but there wasn't a sadness. It was just rage.

I get annoyed with every model run. I look for something, ANYTHING that is redeeming and there is nothing there. I am even looking at the GFS beyond 180 hours...even beyond 240 hours knowing damn full well how stupid it is. But I need to see something. Times are hard and I see us wallowing for 2 more weeks at least.

Tug Hill or bust--

Link to comment
Share on other sites

posted this in Philly thread but I think it applies

Well, a legit significant storm threat to track would have been nice, but today's medium range guidance puts me in a philosophical mood....seems like we have seasonably cold to somewhat below normal temps for at least a time next week....as HPC noted in todays extended disco, shortwave details remain a low confidence proposition, and thats not necessarily a bad thing. Sitting here waiting for a great pattern with major sustained favorable blocking is a fools erand IMO. Whats coming up this week is what I am hoping for....that our colder shots, if however brief, are legitimately cold for the time of year, and that in the fast flow something can pop to give us an accumulating snow...I think our best shots at snow are not going to be clear cut 6"+ threats that first pop in the 5-7 day range....i think they will be vague threats that don't solidify til 72 hours out at the ealiest and will be of the 2-4 or 3-6 inch variety...I think we have a better chance at getting stretches of time where the pattern doesn't totally suck like this coming week than we do a significant stretch where the pattern is highly favorable.

I get annoyed with every model run. I look for something, ANYTHING that is redeeming and there is nothing there. I am even looking at the GFS beyond 180 hours...even beyond 240 hours knowing damn full well how stupid it is. But I need to see something. Times are hard and I see us wallowing for 2 more weeks at least.

Stay thirsty my friends...epic might not be on the menu this season, but I think reasonable expectations have at least a reasonable chance of being rewarded

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...