Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 consistent cold, at least, and that's got to be first before we can think about snow around here so at least it's something on this run GFS likes the pumping up the ridge out west several times over the next 8 days or so. Looks like much colder temps along the EC than we though for the first week of 2012. However, towards the end of the run the pv restrengthens and moves back over the pole. Until that damn pv starts playing nice, we're going to have a very disappointing winter along the entire EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 GFS doesn't have a storm, but it has been getting deeper with the trough on the 3rd. GFS never pumps the PNA to a huge spike like the Euro ( the big storm runs) did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marked8 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I had to LOL, Henry M. the biggest snow weenie of them all on Accuweather basically just cancelled winter until mid February. He said the Nina is strengthening and this pattern won't start to relax until then. I guess this is our repayment for two years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I had to LOL, Henry M. the biggest snow weenie of them all on Accuweather basically just cancelled winter until mid February. He said the Nina is strengthening and this pattern won't start to relax until then. No he didn't 2. The one thing I did notice is the strengthening of the La Nina over the past two weeks. What that says to me is a strengthening of the warmth across the Southwest and into the South Central states, i.e. NM into Texas. We may see some fairly warm air start to show up across the area, and the implications could be for shots of warm weather to comes north for a time until the La Nina weakens in February. I still believe the pattern does change in mid-February as the La Nina weakens. http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/here-comes-the-clippers-but-little-snow-with-them/59583 That isn't a winter cancel for the East coast, and doesn't mean that the East gets no snow at all until mid-Feb. I guess this is our repayment for two years ago. I am sick of people saying this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 No he didn't 2. The one thing I did notice is the strengthening of the La Nina over the past two weeks. What that says to me is a strengthening of the warmth across the Southwest and into the South Central states, i.e. NM into Texas. We may see some fairly warm air start to show up across the area, and the implications could be for shots of warm weather to comes north for a time until the La Nina weakens in February. I still believe the pattern does change in mid-February as the La Nina weakens. http://www.accuweath...with-them/59583 wtf is he talking about? look at the weekly SSTA numbers ENSO 3.4 has been steady for the last 2 weeks after warming from the previous two http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst.for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I guess I'm looking for anything positive, but the GFS ensemble members show a good deal of spread during the 5 to 7 day period wrt surface weather. We're all down a liittle because the models aren't showing us anything good for the 5 to 7 day period, but just how accurate is someone going to claim they've been in the 5 to 7 day period, especially the revered Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 No he didn't 2. The one thing I did notice is the strengthening of the La Nina over the past two weeks. What that says to me is a strengthening of the warmth across the Southwest and into the South Central states, i.e. NM into Texas. We may see some fairly warm air start to show up across the area, and the implications could be for shots of warm weather to comes north for a time until the La Nina weakens in February. I still believe the pattern does change in mid-February as the La Nina weakens. http://www.accuweath...with-them/59583 That isn't a winter cancel for the East coast, and doesn't mean that the East gets no snow at all until mid-Feb. I am sick of people saying this. Yeah, like there's some sort of balance sheet that has to be satisfied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 No big storm on CMC either..storm is dead folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Models seem to have come to a consensus that the trough will set up too far east for a coastal storm to form and produce snow in the region. However, because of that more eastward placement, more cold will be able to make it into the region... could get some decent lake-effect snow showers east of the mountains within that cold spell. Looks like the Lakes are gonna get crushed... probably the best chance for a lake-effect chase we've seen this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Models seem to have come to a consensus that the trough will set up too far east for a coastal storm to form and produce snow in the region. However, because of that more eastward placement, more cold will be able to make it into the region... could get some decent lake-effect snow showers east of the mountains within that cold spell. Looks like the Lakes are gonna get crushed... probably the best chance for a lake-effect chase we've seen this year. What is the closest place that can be chased? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Euro says congrats Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Euro says congrats Bermuda Snow this time of year is beautiful in Bermuda, let's chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Snow this time of year is beautiful in Bermuda, let's chase. the outer banks might get a flurry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 What is the closest place that can be chased? If the fetch sets up right (and it looks like it will), Garrett Co is probably the best local choice. It's quite possible that wisp get's a couple feet out of this and good grief do they need it. I feel really bad for the local PA resorts that are pretty much missing the entire christmas week revenue. They are losing a ton of money this year and there's not a damn thing that anybody can do about it. To get right up in the face of the lakes you are looking at pretty much an 7+ hour drive in OH, PA, or NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 What is the closest place that can be chased? Somewhere up in the mountains... hard to tell at this point who's going to cash in the most as there is too large of a discrepancy concerning mid-level winds between the different models. My gut is saying "go to the Tughill" but I think NW PA will also do fairly well. (EDIT: If you want the *best* chasing area) If the fetch sets up right (and it looks like it will), Garrett Co is probably the best local choice. It's quite possible that wisp get's a couple feet out of this and good grief do they need it. I feel really bad for the local PA resorts that are pretty much missing the entire christmas week revenue. They are losing a ton of money this year and there's not a damn thing that anybody can do about it. To get right up in the face of the lakes you are looking at pretty much an 7+ hour drive in OH, PA, or NY. Also this, I guess. I'm not read up on the Mid-Atlantic mountains and choice lake-effect areas, so I defer to the more experienced snow peeps in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 the outer banks might get a flurry More than we have gotten, let's go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 More than we have gotten, let's go. meh, that's what webcams (with sound) are for http://www.avalonpier.com/wavecam.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 If the fetch sets up right (and it looks like it will), Garrett Co is probably the best local choice. It's quite possible that wisp get's a couple feet out of this and good grief do they need it. I feel really bad for the local PA resorts that are pretty much missing the entire christmas week revenue. They are losing a ton of money this year and there's not a damn thing that anybody can do about it. To get right up in the face of the lakes you are looking at pretty much an 7+ hour drive in OH, PA, or NY. save the gas, webcams all the way (got a few in Garrett Co.) http://www.chart.state.md.us/TravInfo/trafficcams.php# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 meh, that's what webcams (with sound) are for http://www.avalonpier.com/wavecam.html Yes but that is like watching a porn video instead of being in it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 For those of you who've chased LES by going to Garrett county, is it a good idea to spend a night there at some hotel, or can a day trip be done? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 For those of you who've chased LES by going to Garrett county, is it a good idea to spend a night there at some hotel, or can a day trip be done? Day trip is no problem. Even during upslope events the only bad driving conditions are at the end of the drive from Frostburg on I-68 and then on the stretch of 219 to McHenry. You don't even neet to go that far if you don't want to. Since you're just chasing you can stop at the top of Keyser's ridge and enjoy there. You can easily get to Keyser's in less than 3 hours from your area. The ridge does the best with WNW-NW flow. Any more northerly or westerly component can shut it down pretty easily. LWX does a great job forecasting western MD upslope. If they throw up a warning it's a safe bet that it's gonna dump. I went out there in January last year. We got 17" over 3 days and it was all upslope. Cold dry powder........I don't even remember what that looks like anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I know this is off topic, but it is slow in here. JB just said that La Nina will fall apart by summer and we will have a weak to moderate El Nino. He said Nino after double Nina means wild next winter, chances of him being right sorta like DT's snow map from yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 And DT still thinks we have a chance next Tuesday : ***ALERT *** 12z euro DOES have the JAN 3-4 Low.. BUT it is off the se conus coast. The Model shows the Low a bit closer than the 0z european model but it is still too far off the coast. However the important thing is that it still a threat... it would not take Much of a shift for the low to come much closer to the coast . In addition the wind and cold looks impressive as well easily the coldest air the entire east coast has seen since last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Day trip is no problem. Even during upslope events the only bad driving conditions are at the end of the drive from Frostburg on I-68 and then on the stretch of 219 to McHenry. You don't even neet to go that far if you don't want to. Since you're just chasing you can stop at the top of Keyser's ridge and enjoy there. You can easily get to Keyser's in less than 3 hours from your area. The ridge does the best with WNW-NW flow. Any more northerly or westerly component can shut it down pretty easily. LWX does a great job forecasting western MD upslope. If they throw up a warning it's a safe bet that it's gonna dump. I went out there in January last year. We got 17" over 3 days and it was all upslope. Cold dry powder........I don't even remember what that looks like anymore. Thanks for the advice! If I can chase a 10"+ event which is 3 hours away, I'll definitely consider this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Thanks for the advice! If I can chase a 10"+ event which is 3 hours away, I'll definitely consider this. No prob. It's worth the chase. The winds on the ridges are howling so it will feel like a blizzard at times. The snow is convective in nature. Dark skies with bursts of heavy snow (usually big dendrites) followed with brief peeks of sun. It can continue like that for days and it feels like being in a "big storm" during the bursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 And DT still thinks we have a chance next Tuesday : ***ALERT *** 12z euro DOES have the JAN 3-4 Low.. BUT it is off the se conus coast. The Model shows the Low a bit closer than the 0z european model but it is still too far off the coast. However the important thing is that it still a threat... it would not take Much of a shift for the low to come much closer to the coast . In addition the wind and cold looks impressive as well easily the coldest air the entire east coast has seen since last winter Well he got your attention and most of the people on here that you all waste you time and go to his page.......kinda childish cutting and pasting from his page.........if you aren't interested in his opinion or what he says why do most of you all here still sneek peaks at his page? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Well he got your attention and most of the people on here that you all waste you time and go to his page.......kinda childish cutting and pasting from his page.........if you aren't interested in his opinion or what he says why do most of you all here still sneek peaks at his page? give him a break Dave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Well he got your attention and most of the people on here that you all waste you time and go to his page.......kinda childish cutting and pasting from his page.........if you aren't interested in his opinion or what he says why do most of you all here still sneek peaks at his page? Thanks for your advice BJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Thanks for your advice BJ. Was more of a question than advice, and the statment about cutting and pasting was merely an observation. But if you dont like him and dont believe him why even look at what hype he starts spinng? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 But if you dont like him and dont believe him why even look at what hype he starts spinng? The answer to this question spans years of history and numerous events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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