EastCoast NPZ Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Well said. The consensus for January seems to be a cool start with moderation back to the warmer pattern and perhaps something more tantalizing towards the end of the month and into late winter. This, so far, is not the type of winter the least bit interested in melding cold intrusions with blocking. When Wes starts liking the 500 mb pattern and Don S. proclaims a trending negative AO...maybe, just maybe... and by the time all those things finally happen, we'll be fighting climo and worrying about sun-angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 easy come, easy go Euro Ensembles say maybe talk of a storm is not done, but we need an extreme scenario for it to work The euro ensembles were not pretty looking wrt that storm. Everything is just a bit too far to the east right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The euro ensembles were not pretty looking wrt that storm. Everything is just a bit too far to the east right now. And actually the euro ensemble mean of 12z yesterday didn't exactly show support for the op run. It was more progressive. Same could be said for the GGEM ens mean. That was a red flag right there not to be too excited about the chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 looks like the new thread killed it.. just as planned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 looks like the new thread killed it.. just as planned. Poor Phin, at least he didn't limit it to one storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 JMA says maybe a clipper on Sat. http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_72HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 This winter could be worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Poor Phin, at least he didn't limit it to one storm. a month full of heatbreak is better than a few days i suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 a month full of heatbreak is better than a few days i suppose. I'm not a grand expert here, but a glance at the GFS ensembles from 0Z suggest that the pattern tries to become meridional for a brief period next week but can't lock in so any east SLP scoots out to sea and then the Pacific zonal flow resumes big time. It seems that this drabness is an 800 lb. gorilla that has squatted and has little if any interest in budging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 JMA says maybe a clipper on Sat. http://grib2.com/jma...THKPRP_72HR.gif You never give up, it looks too far north to me. , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 This winter could be worse Link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 You never give up, it looks too far north to me. , trauma from the winter of 72/73 has done irreparable harm to me (iow, I've fallen and I can't get up!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 https://www.facebook.com/#!/WxRisk/posts/284930608220871 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 trauma from the winter of 72/73 has done irreparable harm to me (iow, I've fallen and I can't get up!) lol, I thought the culprit was 1997-1998. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 https://www.facebook...284930608220871 I guess when you make a non-forecast forecast map you don't have to update it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 https://www.facebook...284930608220871 He is going to kill you one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Here is an updated map for DT based on the 0z runs Funny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Still no storm on the GFS....NEXT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 anyone who wants to see snow can head NW, great prolonged lake effect event, especially for the eastern lakes with a W to SW fetch and lake temperatures that are running above normal (water temperature off Buffalo is 43F, a record for December 28, per WFO BUF). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 gfs 1pm tues has most of va in the 20's I95 around freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 anyone who wants to see snow can head NW, great prolonged lake effect event, especially for the eastern lakes with a W to SW fetch and lake temperatures that are running above normal. Yep. JonJon, looks like the mountains of WV will pick some excellent snow up next week. Badly needed for the ski resorts.....god bless upslope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 anyone who wants to see snow can head NW, great prolonged lake effect event, especially for the eastern lakes with a W to SW fetch and lake temperatures that are running above normal (water temperature off Buffalo is 43F, a record for December 28, per WFO BUF). Yep, the ski resorts should do well and should be able to make plenty of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 lol, I thought the culprit was 1997-1998. it didn't help, that's for sure, but 72/73 was imminently more insidious we had several forecasts for snow that all fell apart at the very end, and I mean very end; oh, they were painful and at that time, the only wx outlets, aside from radio and tv, was the NOAA radio, so I was blind as to what happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 it didn't help, that's for sure, but 72/73 was imminently more insidious we had several forecasts for snow that all fell apart at the very end, and I mean very end; oh, they were painful and at that time, the only wx outlets, aside from radio and tv, was the NOAA radio, so I was blind as to what happened Looks like the gfs may give you a long range clipper to track for a run or two based on the 168hr. That's a more plausible scenario than the monster euro storm. It's still likely to be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Looks like the gfs may give you a long range clipper to track for a run or two based on the 168hr. That's a more plausible scenario than the monster euro storm. It's still likely to be wrong lol, it even fell apart as it approached. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 in 2 weeks it'll be time to start rooting for a shutout if we're still there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 in 2 weeks it'll be time to start rooting for a shutout if we're still there consistent cold, at least, and that's got to be first before we can think about snow around here so at least it's something on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 consistent cold, at least, and that's got to be first before we can think about snow around here so at least it's something on this run It's certainly a colder run but towards the end the cold is aimed out west but that's all fanasyland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 It's not often that DCA gets as much snow as BOS for the month of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 lol Wxrisk.com of course Ian is the same guy who for days and day **** all over MY Irene forecast then when Irene didnt go out to sea never had the decency to say well DT was right and I wasnt.. haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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