January 2012 Storm Threats and Discussion

[Deck Pic]

I'm thinking about detaching myself now.....

[HM]

Here I was thinking this is the best run in a while in the extended...

[Deck Pic]

Here I was thinking this is the best run in a while in the extended...

why?...because the EPO doesn't look as bad?...or are you encouraged by the ridging in the Atlantic?

[Ji]

if we can't score next week, we are potentially looking at punting the 1st 2 weeks of January....this is no longer acceptable

01-02 had a small window for a big storm that Norfolk took advantage of. We got a weak 1-4 inch event 10 days later and winter then ended. That was all between jan 1-15

[HM]

why?...because the EPO doesn't look as bad?...or are you encouraged by the ridging in the Atlantic?

Yep. Aleutian Low with a split flow, PV displaced into Quebec with a crappy omega-block over the N. Atlantic. This is by far and away a major change on the ECMWF and way different than the GFS.

If the GFS is right, we continue to torch through the foreseeable future. In terms of promising shifts in teleconnections, day 7-10 ECMWF looks good.

Next week's storm is really whatever anyway. There is nothing to force that thing outside of the ridge in the West. The way the Mid Atlantic gets snowstorms (usually) is a -NAO and split flow.

[Deck Pic]

Yep. Aleutian Low with a split flow, PV displaced into Quebec with a crappy omega-block over the N. Atlantic. This is by far and away a major change on the ECMWF and way different than the GFS.

If the GFS is right, we continue to torch through the foreseeable future. In terms of promising shifts in teleconnections, day 7-10 ECMWF looks good.

Next week's storm is really whatever anyway. There is nothing to force that thing outside of the ridge in the West. The way the Mid Atlantic gets snowstorms (usually) is a -NAO and split flow.

if we can get a stable vortex off the west coast, that would be sweet but seems like the Euro is always showing that in the long range and never happens...I know there is a ton of winter left...I am just getting frustrated....I hope the MJO doesn't do a ride around the cul-de-sac again....

[Ji]

if we can get a stable vortex off the west coast, that would be sweet but seems like the Euro is always showing that in the long range and never happens...I know there is a ton of winter left...I am just getting frustrated....I hope the MJO doesn't do a ride around the cul-de-sac again....

Jb says mjo heading towards phase 8.1.2. Congrats

[Deck Pic]

01-02 had a small window for a big storm that Norfolk took advantage of. We got a weak 1-4 inch event 10 days later and winter then ended. That was all between jan 1-15

I got 3" but it changed to light rain and barely stuck around...I don't think it ever stuck to the streets...the only good thing that happened that day was the tuck rule game...

EDIT: The Eagles won that afternoon.....I assumed they would get crushed by STL the following week but they actually played a competitive game

[HM]

if we can get a stable vortex off the west coast, that would be sweet but seems like the Euro is always showing that in the long range and never happens...I know there is a ton of winter left...I am just getting frustrated....I hope the MJO doesn't do a ride around the cul-de-sac again....

The one thing to notice is that every piece of guidance has this PNA spike and cold blast. We have good reason to believe this is legit early next week and it also has support by the GWO; although, I am waiting for the reanalysis data. We need to see the latest 00z ECMWF ensembles but this could be a case of GFS taking the ridge down too quickly and poor resolution treating the NW PAC low incorrectly.

The 12z ensembles and new 00z ECMWF like a significant trough on the backside of the Alaskan Vortex in the NW PAC ~ 1/4-1/8. If this feature rapidly develops and pulls the heights down over the Aleutians, then the picture will rapidly change. The 12z EC/ensembles weren't that bad in the N PAC but they had a PV over the N Atlantic most of the run. That is why i am saying this is a new thing and a big change tonight on the 00z EC.

I sure hope it isn't some fluke model run in the N. Atlantic!

[Deck Pic]

The one thing to notice is that every piece of guidance has this PNA spike and cold blast. We have good reason to believe this is legit early next week and it also has support by the GWO; although, I am waiting for the reanalysis data. We need to see the latest 00z ECMWF ensembles but this could be a case of GFS taking the ridge down too quickly and poor resolution treating the NW PAC low incorrectly.

The 12z ensembles and new 00z ECMWF like a significant trough on the backside of the Alaskan Vortex in the NW PAC ~ 1/4-1/8. If this feature rapidly develops and pulls the heights down over the Aleutians, then the picture will rapidly change. The 12z EC/ensembles weren't that bad in the N PAC but they had a PV over the N Atlantic most of the run. That is why i am saying this is a new thing and a big change tonight on the 00z EC.

I sure hope it isn't some fluke model run in the N. Atlantic!

I guess we need this process to play out...it is the 1st legit cold shot of the season....even if it is dry it is something we haven't gotten yet....if that is part of the process of inducing a pattern change or the result of the beginning stages of a pattern change I am all for it.....I have been crowing for a cold shot even if dry for weeks now...I shouldn't look a gift horse in the mouth

[ORH_wxman]

The MJO could def help down the road, but I personally think it stays too weak to do that...but its not far from being useful in phase 7/8/1 about 10-14 down the road. If it goes more robust than modeled, then I think we will see a reason to try and sustain the western ridge longer than models have it.

Otherwise, I think its a robust but transient cold shot with that ridge/trough combo. The storm potential is always going to be there if the ridge remains amped enough....but you need the monster enery rounding the base which is impossible to forecast at this time range. The ridge axis as I think I mentioned further back...its pretty far east for a big EC snowstorm, but that doesn't mean it cannot happen obviously. It def can...it just needs to get juiced at the base of the trough by some serious energy.

The fundamental AO pattern though doesn't look to change in the next 10-14 days...hopefully the PV starts breaking up at the end of that period which there have been hints at...but obviously nothing definitive.

[Deck Pic]

The MJO could def help down the road, but I personally think it stays too weak to do that...but its not far from being useful in phase 7/8/1 about 10-14 down the road. If it goes more robust than modeled, then I think we will see a reason to try and sustain the western ridge longer than models have it.

Otherwise, I think its a robust but transient cold shot with that ridge/trough combo. The storm potential is always going to be there if the ridge remains amped enough....but you need the monster enery rounding the base which is impossible to forecast at this time range. The ridge axis as I think I mentioned further back...its pretty far east for a big EC snowstorm, but that doesn't mean it cannot happen obviously. It def can...it just needs to get juiced at the base of the trough by some serious energy.

The fundamental AO pattern though doesn't look to change in the next 10-14 days...hopefully the PV starts breaking up at the end of that period which there have been hints at...but obviously nothing definitive.

I am desperate and irrational at this point....maybe New years will give me some renewed perspective as we head into Jan and Feb

[ORH_wxman]

I am desperate and irrational at this point....maybe New years will give me some renewed perspective as we head into Jan and Feb

I have had less than 1 inch of snow since October 30. We are all in the same boat right now. Mad River Glen ski resort (which doesn't use snow making) in N Vermont is still closed on Dec 27. Its been a joke in the east all December.

But I think an outside shot at rivering a straight on Jan 3-5 along with almost guaranteed cold and the possibility that the MJO could help a tad isn't bad after this past December. Also there is still some hope with the stratosphere....I'd like to see the MJO do work as that is more effective IMHO than hoping for the strat crap to downwell, but it very well may by Jan 10 or so. We'll have to wait and see.

[HM]

The MJO could def help down the road, but I personally think it stays too weak to do that...but its not far from being useful in phase 7/8/1 about 10-14 down the road. If it goes more robust than modeled, then I think we will see a reason to try and sustain the western ridge longer than models have it.

Otherwise, I think its a robust but transient cold shot with that ridge/trough combo. The storm potential is always going to be there if the ridge remains amped enough....but you need the monster enery rounding the base which is impossible to forecast at this time range. The ridge axis as I think I mentioned further back...its pretty far east for a big EC snowstorm, but that doesn't mean it cannot happen obviously. It def can...it just needs to get juiced at the base of the trough by some serious energy.

The fundamental AO pattern though doesn't look to change in the next 10-14 days...hopefully the PV starts breaking up at the end of that period which there have been hints at...but obviously nothing definitive.

The forcing is strongest in the Indian Ocean, associated with a Kelvin Wave, which may have induced a recent East-Asian MT / positive tendency (we'll see soon). The MJO, however, is being positioned further East (ph 5) because this is the area of -h2 anomalies (weak). There are widespread +h2 winds in the IO, dampening any MJO coherence there. On the other hand, there are very strong +h85 winds across the IO. It will be interesting to see what happens once this KW catches up to the -h2 / "MJO" wave.

I don't see anything weak about what's going on currently. I suppose it is a little "disjointed" because the ENSO-forcing and IO KW are dampening the MJO signal somewhat.

[ORH_wxman]

The forcing is strongest in the Indian Ocean, associated with a Kelvin Wave, which may have induced a recent East-Asian MT / positive tendency (we'll see soon). The MJO, however, is being positioned further East (ph 5) because this is the area of -h2 anomalies (weak). There are widespread +h2 winds in the IO, dampening any MJO coherence there. On the other hand, there are very strong +h85 winds across the IO. It will be interesting to see what happens once this KW catches up to the -h2 / "MJO" wave.

I don't see anything weak about what's going on currently. I suppose it is a little "disjointed" because the ENSO-forcing and IO KW are dampening the MJO signal somewhat.

Do you think the MJO will be stronger than forecast once it propagates to phase 7/8/1? So far, model forecasts are pretty "meh" there...weak to almost non-existent back in the COD...but they seem to be trending a tad stronger.

I think the MJO is probably our best bet in the relative short term (14 days or less) to shuffle the pattern....moreso than the stratospheric stuff that looks to still be in question in that short of a deadline.

[HM]

Do you think the MJO will be stronger than forecast once it propagates to phase 7/8/1? So far, model forecasts are pretty "meh" there...weak to almost non-existent back in the COD...but they seem to be trending a tad stronger.

I think the MJO is probably our best bet in the relative short term (14 days or less) to shuffle the pattern....moreso than the stratospheric stuff that looks to still be in question in that short of a deadline.

There are different ways to look at things. You might say the strong warming in the upper stratosphere is insignificant, but I say it is pretty significant. This first warming was never going to just downwell so early in the winter. The point of the warming is that now we have significant wave amplification / ozone transports occurring and moving away from the major +AO regime. There are going to be additional waves / warmings which may lead to a break down later in the month (which I am now starting to like).

In terms of the MJO, I will be happy just to get it out of phase 5, regardless of how coherent the octant graphs make it. If the divergence waves cross into ph 8-1, then that will be sufficient. It is going to be hard getting a coherent wave with those La Nina wind anomalies in place. Having said that, I do feel like once the KW progresses through Indonesia, the MJO wave will develop / propagate along.

It may be more important to get that thing out of phase 5 looping (really just Walker Cell forcing, not really MJO) around.

[aldie 22]

This thread got funny overnight....Matt has a mini meltdown then Ji piles on a bit and then HM comes in with an intervention....

[H2O]

This thread got funny overnight....Matt has a mini meltdown then Ji piles on a bit and then HM comes in with an intervention....

I smell a relapse if the therapy doesn't pan out

[BethesdaWX]

maybe FEB will be good?

yep

[CoastalWx]

The euro ensembles offer a warm up again near the 7-10th or so right now, as the vortex tries to fight back and ridging retrogrades. However the ridge near the Aleutians might try to flex and send another cool shot se, as the vortex lifts north into the N-Pole. It also is getting punched in the side by western Russia ridging which tries to cause a little more troughing into the east. I think this period is sort of questionable given that the setup could turn to crap, but thought I'd let you know. It's also trying to get some NATL ridging going. It's not a -NAO by any means, but you can see how those three ridge areas that I mention, try to keep some troughing in the east. I would probably like to see more of a +PNA for you guys, or an -NAO.

[CAPE]

Still not seeing a pattern change. The 00z Gfs was a terrible run. No sign whatsoever of a - nao developing

Disastrous evening and hobby

Weather is a good hobby...being totally preoccupied with snow and only snow is an obsession, and an extremely irrational one given where you live.

[PhineasC]

Now is usually when the GFS picks up the storm for a few days.

[usedtobe]

The MJO could def help down the road, but I personally think it stays too weak to do that...but its not far from being useful in phase 7/8/1 about 10-14 down the road. If it goes more robust than modeled, then I think we will see a reason to try and sustain the western ridge longer than models have it.

Otherwise, I think its a robust but transient cold shot with that ridge/trough combo. The storm potential is always going to be there if the ridge remains amped enough....but you need the monster enery rounding the base which is impossible to forecast at this time range. The ridge axis as I think I mentioned further back...its pretty far east for a big EC snowstorm, but that doesn't mean it cannot happen obviously. It def can...it just needs to get juiced at the base of the trough by some serious energy.

The fundamental AO pattern though doesn't look to change in the next 10-14 days...hopefully the PV starts breaking up at the end of that period which there have been hints at...but obviously nothing definitive.

Will,

That's how I see it and think the positive pna look will give way to another positive epo. I think the vortex has weakened some but is still stronger than normal. The euro backing away was not a big surprise, whenever model evolution looks really goofy in the longer ranges, the model is usually wrong. Having a strong trough looks reasonable, having a 5 sd closed upper low voer the southeast in a la nina year didn't.

[winterymix]

Well, the GFS is adamant for a progressive pattern. It forms a small low off

Hatteras and scoots it out to sea. We need an expression that is the opposite

of "thread the needle". Something like "souffle collapse" or "Face Beaten in by Sadness"

or "Mother Nature giving us the driving finger".

[FrederickWX]

Here is an updated map for DT based on the 0z runs

[RTutton]

Can someone interpret the Euro ensemble members for me? I don't have access. The mean looks like it has a storm, or is it too weak? I don't care of it is slightly OTS, at least there's still something.

[eurojosh]

Well, the GFS is adamant for a progressive pattern. It forms a small low off

Hatteras and scoots it out to sea. We need an expression that is the opposite

of "thread the needle". Something like "souffle collapse" or "Face Beaten in by Sadness"

or "Mother Nature giving us the driving finger".

I prefer to think of it as being akin to being on a small dinghy far out to sea, with each model cycle as a series of waves; on some, you're going to be lifted high enough to see the shore; on others, you can't see anything but water. The question is whether the tide is pulling in the right direction so that the shore becomes visible with increasing frequency and proximity, or if you remain stranded way out at (dry) sea...

[mitchnick]

easy come, easy go

Euro Ensembles say maybe talk of a storm is not done, but we need an extreme scenario for it to work

[TowsonWeather]

Extrapolating the 6Z NAM leads me to the rock-solid conclusion that the magic, epic, against-the-odds Blizzard of 2012 is not yet dead.

That's my story and I'm stickin' to it...

[winterymix]

I prefer to think of it as being akin to being on a small dinghy far out to sea, with each model cycle as a series of waves; on some, you're going to be lifted high enough to see the shore; on others, you can't see anything but water. The question is whether the tide is pulling in the right direction so that the shore becomes visible with increasing frequency and proximity, or if you remain stranded way out at (dry) sea...

Well said. The consensus for January seems to be a cool start with moderation back to the warmer

pattern and perhaps something more tantalizing towards the end of the month and into late winter.

This, so far, is not the type of winter the least bit interested in melding cold intrusions with blocking.

When Wes starts liking the 500 mb pattern and Don S. proclaims a trending negative AO...maybe, just maybe...