mitchnick Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 0Z NAM post frontal event is going to be nice for someone, but who??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 0Z NAM post frontal event is going to be nice for someone, but who??? Seems like it digs a bit more southwest on this run...how much further would it have to dig before it would be a decent event? South of TN? Just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 All of the features, surface low, 500, 700 are all what looks to be about 250 miles or so to the southeast of where they were on the 12z run. I can't get the 18z images for some reason. And what's up with Allans site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 0Z NAM post frontal event is going to be nice for someone, but who??? East of I-79 from PIT to MGW, and west of Rt. 220 from EKN to AOO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Looks brisk on Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Clipper this run is strong enough for accumulating snow across MD (00z GFS). If the GFS is correct with the vort track, this could bring a widespread 1-3" across the DC-MD area. There I said it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 STATE OF THE SNOWPACK We managed to eke out ONE DAY of snow cover in Dale City. There is still snow left on most northeastern slopes in the Dale City/Woodbridge region. I personally jebwalked past five of them this evening. Glendale Road in Glendale in Dale City is one of them, check out Glendale Road's residences just off Dale Blvd. THis is the usual suspect area for leftover snowpack. This snow managed to survive a 54 degree torch with sunshine!!! The state of the remaining patches of snowpack is GRIM: More mild weather is on tap tomorrow and RAIN is on the horizon in this relentless zonal, Pacific airmass-filled La Nina pattern. At least we got to enjoy 2 inches of snowy BLISS yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Clipper this run is strong enough for accumulating snow across MD (00z GFS). If the GFS is correct with the vort track, this could bring a widespread 1-3" across the DC-MD area. There I said it! we love you man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Clipper this run is strong enough for accumulating snow across MD (00z GFS). If the GFS is correct with the vort track, this could bring a widespread 1-3" across the DC-MD area. There I said it! Thanks for the morale booster. Many of us in central MD missed yesterday's snow. 1-3" over the upcoming weekend along with cold/blustery conditions would be nice. I do realize, though, that trying to pin down a clipper's speed/strength/path from 5 days out is impossible. Hopefully, we at least see some flakes. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 grrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrRRRRRRRRRRRRRrr 20:1 ratios on Sunday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Thanks for the morale booster. Many of us in central MD missed yesterday's snow. 1-3" over the upcoming weekend along with cold/blustery conditions would be nice. I do realize, though, that trying to pin down a clipper's speed/strength/path fro 5 days out is impossible. Hopefully, we at least see some flakes. MDstorm That's a good way to go about this one. The track of that vort max is going to vary considerably run to run. There is some good potential for a wintry weekend. Also, I would say there is some sort of a ZR threat Tuesday morning as well across the interior areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Clipper this run is strong enough for accumulating snow across MD (00z GFS). If the GFS is correct with the vort track, this could bring a widespread 1-3" across the DC-MD area. There I said it! I am officially aboard the HM Train. :snowing: :snowing: :snowing: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Clipper this run is strong enough for accumulating snow across MD (00z GFS). If the GFS is correct with the vort track, this could bring a widespread 1-3" across the DC-MD area. There I said it! Will you marry me?. I am in love . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Maybe some passing flizzards Friday or Saturday morning, then a nice clipper Sunday, and a pattern that suggests numerous overrunning chances down the road. This could be a promising next 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 climo>everything else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 That's a good way to go about this one. The track of that vort max is going to vary considerably run to run. There is some good potential for a wintry weekend. Also, I would say there is some sort of a ZR threat Tuesday morning as well across the interior areas. very dissapointed that the Jan 20-30 period looks like a blowtorch now? What happened. We are running out of time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 CFS has cooled February somewhat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 This euro run is crucial. I think it will deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I remain highly optimistic that the MA will see snowfall (SECS). The signals are clear that the pattern is changing. The key is patience. It is a virtue that few have today. The other key reality is this winter was never going to be a blockbuster. Those that had those hopes and dreams were bound to be disappointed. The last full week of January through the last full week in February is our window this year, as with most year's. The glass-half full person will be glad they get their 3-10 inches this lousy winter. The glass-half empty person will complain they live in the MA and our winter this year seems like Spring. Rest assured you will see snow DCA. It will not be a shutout. February is my turf bud, btfo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 This euro run is crucial. I think it will deliver. I am going with zwyts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It's amazing how we are all reacting to a possible 1-3" clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 It's amazing how we are all reacting to a possible 1-3" clipper. Any snow is good snow this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 very dissapointed that the Jan 20-30 period looks like a blowtorch now? What happened. We are running out of time lol The MJO is now racing, IO SSTAs are dropping. After this brief tease it should reconfigure in the COD for about 10-15 days, before making the big final push late in the month. We'll see the signs on the pacific side first, the jet will buckle along with a disruption of the polar vortex leading to a powerful storm system(s) crossing the nation late in January which with a semi cut negative tilt in the trough will pull high heights into greenland entraining in the process without the flow to flatten it. Favorable pattern from the very end of the month throughout most of February. Still betting on this outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Still betting on this outcome. Thanks for reminding us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Matt, what does the Euro look like?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 the run is interesting so far in that there is some legit real deal cold in the gradient that will set up....I think we are in the mix for any of the threats starting Thu night/Friday as long as expectations are for flawed events....FWIW, euro has no clipper Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 the run is interesting so far in that there is some legit real deal cold in the gradient that will set up....I think we are in the mix for any of the threats starting Thu night/Friday as long as expectations are for flawed events....FWIW, euro has no clipper Sunday Thanks, at this point i will take anything flawed or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 threats continue into day 8/9...none of the setups are ideal....but we are going to have some events to forecast the next 10 days that aren't automatically wire to wire rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 day 8/9 storm is legit fwiw which isn't much at that range...988mb just southeast of the benchmark....3-5" event for us....not that any model solution is worth crap at that range, especially the details, but I know people would want to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Thanks, at this point i will take anything flawed or not. This is my WAG and highly subject to change but I think we have 4 discrete threats Thu night/Fri if we can get some -SN after the front.. Sunday clipper though Euro doesn't have it....but it does try to pop some energy not too far offshore Next MondayTuesday...bad track but precip running into a wedge...so maybe snow to rain or some ZR Day 8/9..coastal then the pattern looks like it sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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