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January 2012 Storm Threats and Discussion


PhineasC

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I remain highly optimistic that the MA will see snowfall (SECS). The signals are clear that the pattern is changing. The key is patience. It is a virtue that few have today. The other key reality is this winter was never going to be a blockbuster. Those that had those hopes and dreams were bound to be disappointed. The last full week of January through the last full week in February is our window this year, as with most year's.

The glass-half full person will be glad they get their 3-10 inches this lousy winter.

The glass-half empty person will complain they live in the MA and our winter this year seems like Spring.

Rest assured you will see snow DCA. It will not be a shutout.

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The Euro isn't bad if you want to fantasize about a small event or 2...I think we have multiple chances....every few days....The one feature that has been consistent is this ridge/block north/northwest of AK....so that is likely to happen....it is too far north and west to be in our wheelhouse, but as some have mentioned, it correlates with a huge gradient with the biggest negative temp and height anomalies in New England.......that could help us tangentially as the cold air will be further south than it has been...it has mostly been held up well into Quebec. There is also periodic ridging in the N Atlantic, that looks transient, but may assist us if we time something right.....I'm not sure as to exact threats, but the day 5-6 period seems like maybe the one with the most potential in the nearer term with fresh cold air and as HM has mentioned a displaced PV....

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I remain highly optimistic that the MA will see snowfall (SECS). The signals are clear that the pattern is changing. The key is patience. It is a virtue that few have today. The other key reality is this winter was never going to be a blockbuster. Those that had those hopes and dreams were bound to be disappointed. The last full week of January through the last full week in February is our window this year, as with most year's.

The glass-half full person will be glad they get their 3-10 inches this lousy winter.

The glass-half empty person will complain with live in the MA and our winter this year seems like Spring.

Rest assured you will see snow DCA. It will not be a shutout.

did you sleep through yesterday?

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And for the secondary to be useful the 500h low usually needs to go south of you' not over you or to your west. It also helps to have a high pressure system or confluence over New England as the vort approaches. In this case none of those conditions look like they will be met.

It still amazes me that DCA was somehow able to get 8-9" of snow in five consecutive KU's where the 500 lows (and 850 lows) were less than ideally placed for us (3/60, 12/60, 1/61, 2/61, 1/64). Except for 1/61, those were all Miller B's with pretty robust primary lows...we mixed in two of them.

It's been decades since we've had a mix-precip storm get up into that 8" range at DCA.

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OK, I'll try a new tactic. AS SHOWN, the 18z GFS is spitting out some precip Thurs night after the cold front passes and 850's drop. The cold at the surface seems to be lagging a bit, and I can only see the freezing line, but there is some precip for some areas even after the surface freezing line is past, and a decent slug for just about everyone after the 850 line passes. It also looks to be a fast drop in temps. So, for my new tactic, any thoughts on why what it shows isn't a chance for light snow, and/or thoughts on why it my possibly show a completely different solution very soon?

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OK, I'll try a new tactic. AS SHOWN, the 18z GFS is spitting out some precip Thurs night after the cold front passes and 850's drop. The cold at the surface seems to be lagging a bit, and I can only see the freezing line, but there is some precip for some areas even after the surface freezing line is past, and a decent slug for just about everyone after the 850 line passes. It also looks to be a fast drop in temps. So, for my new tactic, any thoughts on why what it shows isn't a chance for light snow, and/or thoughts on why it my possibly show a completely different solution very soon?

push the area of precip 50 mioles south, and we'll all have a fighting chance for accumulating snow

temps have to drop real quick since it will be warm at the start as progged, but I do think we will "see" snow, just not accumulating (from this run)

other than that, your new tactic sux :P

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I saw that storm at the end of the run moving northwest in the atlantic. Probably not going to verify.

True it probably won't but just the idea of it shows the "historic" nature of the pattern. In the end I wonder if the historic part of this winter will be the positive temp departures, sustained +nao/ao, and lack of snow.

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I'm probably one of the very few here who is actually enjoying this winter. Seems like we've had more sunny days than usual, and definitely been warmer. It's great being able to go outside and take a walk in just a jacket. As far as I'm concerned, if it's not going to snow, I prefer it be like this.

Embrace the torch!

** OOPS.... wrong thread. This was supposed to be in the banter thread.

If you can't be with the one you love, love the one you're with. At least she's hot.

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