H2O Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 What is the ideal track putting let's say DCA in the bullseye? South of Richmond but north of VA/NC border? Just curious. Wes or Ian may know better than me but that track is about right. These clippers can be so fickle with precip so any slight shift is big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 What is the ideal track putting let's say DCA in the bullseye? South of Richmond but north of VA/NC border? Just curious. depends upon how weak or strong it is if it's weak, probably between Richmond and Fredericksburg if it's strong, probably south of Richmond but H2O is correct; as fickle as they are and considering their tendency to always trend north in the last 12-24 hrs, the further south the better at this range in my book Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 depends upon how weak or strong it is if it's weak, probably between Richmond and Fredericksburg if it's strong, probably south of Richmond but H2O is correct; as fickle as they are and considering their tendency to always trend north in the last 12-24 hrs, the further south the better at this range in my book What hour are we watching for a clipper (on the 06z GFS?) Somewhere between yesterday and today, my head started spinning and i'm struggling to follow along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 What hour are we watching for a clipper (on the 06z GFS?) Somewhere between yesterday and today, my head started spinning and i'm struggling to follow along. On 06z, precip starts to enter MD around 99hr and sticks around off and on until 114hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 11, 2012 Author Share Posted January 11, 2012 06Z GFS seems to have an endless parade of threats to track at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Hard to feel confident these days, but the NAM did improve the chances for Thurs night (it would seem by a quick look). We'll see how it looks in a few minutes. Hard to get a handle on chances this weekend. Nothing looks too good especially with the Euro not showing much. Who knows? I guess a chance is better than nothing. Edit: After looking, I guess the GFS isn't so bad. Looks like moisture is available on the 700 maps, and the energy seems to travel on a good path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Wes or Ian may know better than me but that track is about right. These clippers can be so fickle with precip so any slight shift is big. The vort track is pretty good but having the surface low to our north is not and the gfs gives us around than .10 from the combined anafront event and the clipper. I may write up a CWG piece today on the combined "threats" The sweet spot in clippers is usually pretty narrow. After those two minor threats the pattern blows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The 84hr nam is pretty impressive with the vort that produces our clipper on the GFS. Hopefully, that's a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The 84hr nam is pretty impressive with the vort that produces our clipper on the GFS. Hopefully, that's a good sign. I'm surprised no one mentioned the NAM regarding Friday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm surprised no one mentioned the NAM regarding Friday morning Looked pretty interesting to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm surprised no one mentioned the NAM regarding Friday morning Looked fleeting to me, but maybe a few flakes in the air? I guess that's something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm surprised no one mentioned the NAM regarding Friday morning Looks like we're pretty close to the 0.1 line on two consecutive frames. Maybe we could eek out an inch or two. It would be nice with the cold air coming in behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Looked pretty interesting to me. Looked fleeting to me, but maybe a few flakes in the air? I guess that's something. Looks like we're pretty close to the 0.1 line on two consecutive frames. Maybe we could eek out an inch or two. It would be nice with the cold air coming in behind it. I'm further north than all of you so I could see a little bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Looked pretty interesting to me. Looked fleeting to me, but maybe a few flakes in the air? I guess that's something. Looks like we're pretty close to the 0.1 line on two consecutive frames. Maybe we could eek out an inch or two. It would be nice with the cold air coming in behind it. the NAM for Friday is majority rain, looking at the 6-hr precipitation maps gives it the look of an anafront but actually if you look more closely most of the precipitation falls ahead of the front and is out of the area before 850s get below 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 the NAM for Friday is majority rain, looking at the 6-hr precipitation maps gives it the look of an anafront but actually if you look more closely most of the precipitation falls ahead of the front and is out of the area before 850s get below 0. Important analysis! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 the NAM for Friday is majority rain, looking at the 6-hr precipitation maps gives it the look of an anafront but actually if you look more closely most of the precipitation falls ahead of the front and is out of the area before 850s get below 0. bummer - thanks for the input though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 Important analysis! Thanks! bummer - thanks for the input though! it's fast moving...you can't completely rule out one of those scenarios of a convective line of showers which transitions from rain to a very brief period of snow on the back edge.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 I'm surprised no one mentioned the NAM regarding Friday morning It has been mentioned by some (me too) I thought the 12z run was a bit worse. It does show some precip after the 850's crash (little), and some after the surface falls below 32 (very little). I'm sure the trend will be continually worse, but who knows. I know the 6z run actually showed snow acc. in WV (allan's maps), but the 12 z shows none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 The vort track is pretty good but having the surface low to our north is not and the gfs gives us around than .10 from the combined anafront event and the clipper. I may write up a CWG piece today on the combined "threats" The sweet spot in clippers is usually pretty narrow. After those two minor threats the pattern blows. yes, and if you look at the 10 Day forecast at 30mb from the Euro Stat site, it has the vortex sitting right over the Pole again so it seems the Euro forecast of our wam up goes hand in hand with its 30mb forecast over the Pole....dag nabbit http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=30&forecast=f240&lng=eng though, there looks to be another warming starting on the other side of the Pole by Day 10 fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 it's fast moving...you can't completely rule out one of those scenarios of a convective line of showers which transitions from rain to a very brief period of snow on the back edge.... True. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 it's fast moving...you can't completely rule out one of those scenarios of a convective line of showers which transitions from rain to a very brief period of snow on the back edge.... That is what I was thinking only if temps can crash fast enough before the precip shuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 yes, and if you look at the 10 Day forecast at 30mb from the Euro Stat site, it has the vortex sitting right over the Pole again so it seems the Euro forecast of our wam up goes hand in hand with its 30mb forecast over the Pole....dag nabbit http://wekuw.met.fu-...st=f240&lng=eng though, there looks to be another warming starting on the other side of the Pole by Day 10 fwiw The 30 mb temps are staring to drop again, they had gotten quite a bit above normal but now are forecast to drop and be approaching normal by the end of the 10 day period. Those temp drops increase the temp gradient and the 30 mb zonal winds increase. The toss in the -pna, a zonal pacific firehose, the biggest positive anomaly in the atlantic on the euro day 10 being near nova scotia where we want our low and it's not a pattern that inspires confidence but we do have our clipper for what it is worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 If nothing else, that clipper might be almost a thin shield of WAA light snows. I don't know if it will have the magnitude like it had yesterday when we talked about it on the 12z GFS, but what the hell...you'll take any flake that the atmosphere gives at this point. Gotta thank you guys for sending the snow up my way the other night. I had a 0.5". My biggest total this winter and second biggest total since the crushing 1" I had on 10/29/11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 yes, and if you look at the 10 Day forecast at 30mb from the Euro Stat site, it has the vortex sitting right over the Pole again so it seems the Euro forecast of our wam up goes hand in hand with its 30mb forecast over the Pole....dag nabbit http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=30&forecast=f240&lng=eng though, there looks to be another warming starting on the other side of the Pole by Day 10 fwiw That's nice and all but we're running out of time. Your -qbs theory blows and were not having winter this year. Have a nice day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 the NAM for Friday is majority rain, looking at the 6-hr precipitation maps gives it the look of an anafront but actually if you look more closely most of the precipitation falls ahead of the front and is out of the area before 850s get below 0. Yup, I noticed that. Friday looks like crap on the NAM But as Wes noted, the 500 map for the clipper looks pretty vigorous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 If nothing else, that clipper might be almost a thin shield of WAA light snows. I don't know if it will have the magnitude like it had yesterday when we talked about it on the 12z GFS, but what the hell...you'll take any flake that the atmosphere gives at this point. Gotta thank you guys for sending the snow up my way the other night. I had a 0.5". My biggest total this winter and second biggest total since the crushing 1" I had on 10/29/11. wow that is just horrible, beats my couple of trace events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 the NAM for Friday is majority rain, looking at the 6-hr precipitation maps gives it the look of an anafront but actually if you look more closely most of the precipitation falls ahead of the front and is out of the area before 850s get below 0. Thanks...thought the the precip looked fleeting when it got cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 That's nice and all but we're running out of time. Your -qbs theory blows and were not having winter this year. Have a nice day Another winter cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 That's nice and all but we're running out of time. Your -qbs theory blows and were not having winter this year. Have a nice day i'm proud of you ji, with all of this pathetic winter and models you have not had a major melt down yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 11, 2012 Share Posted January 11, 2012 That's nice and all but we're running out of time. Your -qbs theory blows and were not having winter this year. Have a nice day like I said in the thread, it was based on statistical odds and nothing more eventually, it would/will fail; it's still only 1/11 so although most models look horid in the MR and long range, we still have to wait for the season to end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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