BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 at the risk of being a big weenie, the ridge/trough axis looks even better this run than 12z Earthlight does not seem to be in agreement with you.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 yea this is looking like a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Earthlight does not seem to be in agreement with you.... not sure what hour he was looking at when he disagreed, but he is right....this run is meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 next So thats it one run and it is over, what changed from 12Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Can't believe the euro isn't going to show a hecs 16 straight runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 So thats it one run and it is over. no...it is our biggest cold air dump of the season, so worth paying attention to the evolution, but neither of the 2 models that matter has a storm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 no...it is our biggest cold air dump of the season, so worth paying attention to the evolution, but neither of the 2 models that matter has a storm.... Was it off the coast like the GFS or did it just not develop at all?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 So thats it one run and it is over, what changed from 12Z? trough is faster, less sharp and never closes off....no storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Was it off the coast like the GFS or did it just not develop at all?. way way OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 still develops the low but too far east -16c make it's to DC -12 fla panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 trough is faster, less sharp and never closes off....no storm Ok thank you for the details, like you said we will have cold air and we can worry about the details as we get closer. This sure as hell beats December when we knew we had no chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 When euro shows a hecs and Gfs shows nothing...the euro almost always folds. It's when they both show a storm that the euro dominates the Gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Ok thank you for the details, like you said we will have cold air and we can worry about the details as we get closer. This sure as hell beats December when we knew we had no chance. what details?....there is no storm as far as I am concerned...I mean it is worth keeping an eye on I guess, but there is model agreement now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Never believing the euro with these insane lows again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 **alert alert** I'm a Fooking moron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 what details?....there is no storm as far as I am concerned...I mean it is worth keeping an eye on I guess, but there is model agreement now.... If it slows down and the shortwave can dig like the 12z then we can have a storm again, you did not actually think it was going to show a HECS for the next 7 days did you. I am not saying it is going to happen at all but there is still plenty of time to punt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 **alert alert** I'm a Fooking moron Thank you DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Ji, that's like a Fox news alert that the sun rises in the east Sent from my ADR6425LVW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 **alert alert** I'm a Fooking moron what is he talking about with January 9th?....we will torch again once this dry air mass erodes...this trough is racing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 If it slows down and the shortwave can dig like the 12z then we can have a storm again, you did not actually think it was going to show a HECS for the next 7 days did you. I am not saying it is going to happen at all but there is still plenty of time to punt it. no...but there is no storm and there is no reason to think there will be one....until/if a storm shows up again, this threat is dormant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 This winter is awful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 no...but there is no storm and there is no reason to think there will be one....until/if a storm shows up again, this threat is dormant Agreed, we all knew it was a very low probability of this storm happening because there is no blocking. We are just so desperate for anything right now we jumped on it even though it was so far out. I will definitely keep watching it until it does not show up on the GFS and EURO for 3 more runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Still not seeing a pattern change. The 00z Gfs was a terrible run. No sign whatsoever of a - nao developing Disastrous evening and hobby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Interesting. The GFS took a step toward the Euro and the Euro took a step toward the GFS. I wouldn't count anything out yet, still plenty of time to hash out the details, too bad WSR hasn't started yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I'm 2 weeks away from being a full time troll Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Still not seeing a pattern change. The 00z Gfs was a terrible run. No sign whatsoever of a - nao developing Disastrous evening and hobby once this dry dry cold erodes the entire country is a complete torch....like +35 departures in the northern plains...that will get here eventually....maybe by next weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 I'm 2 weeks away from being a full time troll if we can't score next week, we are potentially looking at punting the 1st 2 weeks of January....this is no longer acceptable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 by next Saturday virtually the entire CONUS is above freezing.....maybe FEB will be good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Here is an updated map for DT based on the 0z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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