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January 2012 Storm Threats and Discussion


PhineasC

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If I recall from awhile ago in the main forum, have there ever been 3 La Nina's in a row before? I'd love for that to sneak into warm-neutral by late summer/early fall.

You would think it's extremely rare but it isn't. 54-57, 73-76, and 98-01 were all 3 consecutive year Ninas. Including 2 year ninas in the mix, 3 out of 4 multi year Nina's were followed by a Nino. 2001 was followed by a neutral enso year and then 02-03 was a really nice Nino. Whether the current Nina breaks this winter or next, the odds of a Nino following look pretty good.

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never bank on the secondary being useful unless it's screamingly obvious

And for the secondary to be useful the 500h low usually needs to go south of you' not over you or to your west. It also helps to have a high pressure system or confluence over New England as the vort approaches. In this case none of those conditions look like they will be met.

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At 120 hours it has a low over WV with an east west trough to our south. Looks like it agrees with the GFS. Matt, this may be one of you light snow events that you are looking for.

maybe euro dosent handle qpf well for clippers but it gives Matt 0.00 qpf

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The 96 hr Euro looks like it is also going to have a clipper that will dig farily far south.

I don't think a far south solution is bad at all. Especially from the euro at this range. Strength can be resolved once the vort is over land. This is the kind of event that could nickel and dime us. Maybe I'm mistaken but a clipper tracking south with a + nao doesn't seem likely.

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And for the secondary to be useful the 500h low usually needs to go south of you' not over you or to your west. It also helps to have a high pressure system or confluence over New England as the vort approaches. In this case none of those conditions look like they will be met.

It is you against JB again, he said it will end as snow Friday morning in the big cities :P .

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Yea, but it looks like it wants to build a ridge over us so the cold is going to take its good ole sweet time getting here. By the time it does, 850's will be -2.

Bob, last night's Euro run had us at -8C at 850mb on day 10, so don't give up hope

none of the models are going to be accurate Day 7 and beyond (I know, day 1 and beyond, but humor the old man, will ya'?)

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