Ian Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Simply amazing for an event within 3 days. Whatever. never bank on the secondary being useful unless it's screamingly obvious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 If I recall from awhile ago in the main forum, have there ever been 3 La Nina's in a row before? I'd love for that to sneak into warm-neutral by late summer/early fall. You would think it's extremely rare but it isn't. 54-57, 73-76, and 98-01 were all 3 consecutive year Ninas. Including 2 year ninas in the mix, 3 out of 4 multi year Nina's were followed by a Nino. 2001 was followed by a neutral enso year and then 02-03 was a really nice Nino. Whether the current Nina breaks this winter or next, the odds of a Nino following look pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 never bank on the secondary being useful unless it's screamingly obvious And for the secondary to be useful the 500h low usually needs to go south of you' not over you or to your west. It also helps to have a high pressure system or confluence over New England as the vort approaches. In this case none of those conditions look like they will be met. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The 96 hr Euro looks like it is also going to have a clipper that will dig farily far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The 96 hr Euro looks like it is also going to have a clipper that will dig farily far south. looks like no precip (or less than .05) anywhere with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The 96 hr Euro looks like it is also going to have a clipper that will dig farily far south. too far south for us--no qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 At 120 hours it has a low over WV with an east west trough to our south. Looks like it agrees with the GFS. Matt, this may be one of you light snow events that you are looking for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 At 120 hours it has a low over WV with an east west trough to our south. Looks like it agrees with the GFS. Matt, this may be one of you light snow events that you are looking for. maybe euro dosent handle qpf well for clippers but it gives Matt 0.00 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 too far south for us--no qpf It's close enough to keep an eye on and looking at the surface, The lack of precip surprises. me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The 96 hr Euro looks like it is also going to have a clipper that will dig farily far south. I don't think a far south solution is bad at all. Especially from the euro at this range. Strength can be resolved once the vort is over land. This is the kind of event that could nickel and dime us. Maybe I'm mistaken but a clipper tracking south with a + nao doesn't seem likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 maybe euro dosent handle qpf well for clippers but it gives Matt 0.00 qpf it has no qpf at all east or west of the apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Jan 2003 had a clipper with .01 qpf modeled by the GFS and ETA and it gave us 5 inches of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 it has no qpf at all east or west of the apps. qpf is overrated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 At 120 hours it has a low over WV with an east west trough to our south. Looks like it agrees with the GFS. Matt, this may be one of you light snow events that you are looking for. yea the upper low is much stronger than the 0z i was surprised it had nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 yea the upper low is much stronger than the 0z i was surprised it had nothing it will come around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 qpf is overrated so is cold and storminess by tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 And for the secondary to be useful the 500h low usually needs to go south of you' not over you or to your west. It also helps to have a high pressure system or confluence over New England as the vort approaches. In this case none of those conditions look like they will be met. It is you against JB again, he said it will end as snow Friday morning in the big cities . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 so is cold warm and storminess by tuesday fyp - you know we don't get cold + storm around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 so is cold and storminess by tuesday looking warmish for tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 so is cold and storminess by tuesday Bring your camera and stop being a hater . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 looking warmish for tuesday pattern change coming this weekend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Eh, euro after the 0.00 qpf clipper isn't all that attractive. I don't thinks the heights over greenland can get any lower.......doh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 pattern change coming this weekend! and the seeds back to cold on our door steps http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=temp&in=5&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=yes&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=5&pl=ln&ft=7day&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 pattern change coming this weekend! lakes cutter is a change!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 and the seeds back to cold on our door steps http://vortex.plymou...=7day&cu=latest Yea, but it looks like it wants to build a ridge over us so the cold is going to take its good ole sweet time getting here. By the time it does, 850's will be -2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 so is cold and storminess by tuesday It will find moisture from somewhere or make some from nothing. I believe. Clippers never, ever fail us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 be nice if that High north of AK could move south a couple hundered miles or so on day 7 and beyond http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=4&pl=cf&ft=7day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=ecmwf≤=850&va=strm&in=5&pl=ln&ft=7day&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yea, but it looks like it wants to build a ridge over us so the cold is going to take its good ole sweet time getting here. By the time it does, 850's will be -2. Bob, last night's Euro run had us at -8C at 850mb on day 10, so don't give up hope none of the models are going to be accurate Day 7 and beyond (I know, day 1 and beyond, but humor the old man, will ya'?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 and the seeds back to cold on our door steps http://vortex.plymou...=7day&cu=latest yeah for a few days probably. sure things might be a bit different but we'll probably end up near avg or warmer in the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Yea, but it looks like it wants to build a ridge over us so the cold is going to take its good ole sweet time getting here. By the time it does, 850's will be -2. SE ridge is never delayed or denied. It arrives on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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