CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Although it's been on and off...still might want to watch whatever happens around d5-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Although it's been on and off...still might want to watch whatever happens around d5-6. just gonna mention that s/w diving down wants to spin something up, at least looking through 117 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 just gonna mention that s/w diving down wants to spin something up, at least looking through 117 hrs dang trough tilt that's OK though do NOT want to be 5 day bulls eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 just gonna mention that s/w diving down wants to spin something up, at least looking through 117 hrs Probably nothing noteworthy, just saying to keep an eye on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 GFS has the post-frontal precip on Friday as well but has it more or less along the front. Bulk of the precip is probably rain, ending as flurries. Temp drops 15-20F with the fropa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 GFS has the post-frontal precip on Friday as well but has it more or less along the front. Bulk of the precip is probably rain, ending as flurries. Temp drops 15-20F with the fropa. I've never liked trying to get snow from a front. The more interesting GFS play is the clipper it has a 120 hours. The euro hinted at something last night but wasn't quite as strong. That makes the clipper interesting as it wouldn't take much for the euro to flip to the GFS, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Beggars can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Beggars can't be choosers. and that, honestly, does sum up winters around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I've never liked trying to get snow from a front. The more interesting GFS play is the clipper it has a 120 hours. The euro hinted at something last night but wasn't quite as strong. That makes the clipper interesting as it wouldn't take much for the euro to flip to the GFS, That is what i am talking about, snow for the Ravens game. That would be awesome if we could get an inch or 2 Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The GFS track of the vort and low at 120 hours is a nice one for a clipper. If the surface and 500 were to verify there would probably be a stripe that would produce an inch or two. It's not a totally bogus looking solution for this type of pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 and that, honestly, does sum up winters around here if begging brought us snow we'd have a ton of it in this thread at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Tebowed on a 13.5 point spread seems HIGHLY unlikely Saints vs Pats Saints are gonna be the champs! I will bump your post BJ, when the Ravens beat the Patriots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 How is Winter 2012-13 looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 How is Winter 2012-13 looking? El Nino, i cannot wait for my 20" . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 How is Winter 2012-13 looking? another meh, at least at this range http://www.cpc.ncep....ino34SSTMon.gif p.s. where the Sam He!! is Stormchaser Chuck been? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 another meh, at least at this range http://www.cpc.ncep....ino34SSTMon.gif p.s. where the Sam He!! is Stormchaser Chuck been? staring at the moon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 hehe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 another meh, at least at this range http://www.cpc.ncep....ino34SSTMon.gif If I recall from awhile ago in the main forum, have there ever been 3 La Nina's in a row before? I'd love for that to sneak into warm-neutral by late summer/early fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 How is Winter 2012-13 looking? JB says moderate El Nino--wild and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 JB says moderate El Nino--wild and cold Sweet! La la la lock it up! Combine that with the fact global warming is a liberal hoax and we're set up great for endless record-breaking winters! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 amazing..every storm on the GFS long range is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 amazing..every storm on the GFS long range is rain same for SNE has that nasty tight gradient Coastalwx has been talking about need to get to NNE for the jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 With this gradient pattern developing, the runs have really been alternating between quite mild and frigid cold. Farther north is going to do better in that. We're probably going to be stuck on the wrong side more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 With this gradient pattern developing, the runs have really been alternating between quite mild and frigid cold. Farther north is going to do better in that. We're probably going to be stuck on the wrong side more often than not. I think the frigid cold runs are dubious and suspect we are stuck on the wrong side more than the right. The latest CPC 8-14 has most of VA above normal and us barely in normal in terms of temps. That seems reasonable though I might bump the above north a little based on the lack of snow cover. They also have the pAC NW get we which seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I think the frigid cold runs are dubious and suspect we are stuck on the wrong side more than the right. The latest CPC 8-14 has most of VA above normal and us barely in normal in terms of temps. That seems reasonable though I might bump the above north a little based on the lack of snow cover. They also have the pAC NW get we which seems likely. relatively speaking, it won't take much either way we may be on the wrong side for one storm, that passes by draging the gradient south and gets us on the good side for the next system I agree we will likely not be on the good side, but last night's Euro had us in -8C on Day 10, so who knows (to quote a phrase!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Simply amazing for an event within 3 days. Whatever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 That is what i am talking about, snow for the Ravens game. That would be awesome if we could get an inch or 2 Sunday. Be careful what you wish for, pansy-pants Goodell may postpone the game if that happens, ala the Philadelphia fiasco last season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 amazing..every storm on the GFS long range is rain And this will probably be the time when the models nail it. You know, when teens and snow are no more than a driver and a couple of three woods away, yet you have upper 40's and dry as a bone. There is simply nothing at this point that could make this winter worse.......except what the GFS shows for the next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 relatively speaking, it won't take much either way we may be on the wrong side for one storm, that passes by draging the gradient south and gets us on the good side for the next system I agree we will likely not be on the good side, but last night's Euro had us in -8C on Day 10, so who knows (to quote a phrase!) But being on the wrong side more often that not does not mean we get now shots of cold air. it's that they don't last and it warms prior to the stronger wave approaching. I that is the more likely scenario. Doesn't mean my assessment is right but with the Pacific ridge retrograding getting deep cold air into the mid atlantic gets more problematical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I think if we keep our expectations low we'll be ok over the next 2 weeks. I think we get 1-2 flawed accumulating events. Snow to rain or rain to snow or mixed is one option. Another is something that doesn't hit the entire metro area kind of like yesterday. Some sort of north/south east/west gradient. I think any event would almost certainly be less than 3" and probably t-2". It would be nice if we could take advantage of the next cold air dump even if it is something at the end that changes to rain. A clipper would be ideal. But the default will be a bad pattern so as Wes and others have hammered home, a proper snowstorm with a good track is unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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