bjohnson102184 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 i think they have been warm all winter. sounds like they are doing pretty good Cantt argue with you there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 today didn't sneak up on us--several posters (and not referring to useless weenies) pointed out the potential. Oh, abosultely. If HM was running for President I would vote for him. I was just saying it snuck up on us in relation to model guidance just 5+ days ago. We're all waiting for models to show and verify the classic gulf low track the coast or the potent clipper to swing through from 7 days out but instead we got to enjoy a pretty weak little wave and a super marginal airmass put down a thin blanket of white (against the odds at that). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 I leave for a while and we have a GFS fantasy storm. It will be gone shortly, guys. Don't fall for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 With the 18z GFS showing snow in part of the area, the 12z Euro showing snow in part of the area, and the 0z NAM trending ever so slightly colder both aloft and at the surface, I think there's a small chance Wed/Wed night. It seems to me that in the past this particular type of system tends to trend colder on the models as it gets closer. There is a decent high pressure being modeled over Maine on the NAM and slightly north of Maine on the GFS. I know I'll get laughed at, but, as Ian said, my glass is always running over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 With the 18z GFS showing snow in part of the area, the 12z Euro showing snow in part of the area, and the 0z NAM trending ever so slightly colder both aloft and at the surface, I think there's a small chance Wed/Wed night. It seems to me that in the past this particular type of system tends to trend colder on the models as it gets closer. There is a decent high pressure being modeled over Maine on the NAM and slightly north of Maine on the GFS. I know I'll get laughed at, but, as Ian said, my glass is always running over. the mtns could definitely see some snow. the euro was not that snowy a look tho even there. you are probably more confident than i am the primary dies out fast enough for the secondary to help you a lot of help but i think it's known im a cynic... maybe the tide has turned. if we ever have a true snow season we're in it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Weather: Description: Mostly sunny. Cool. Lots of rain. Increasing cloudiness. Chilly. Heavy rain early. Overcast. Cool. Showers early. Partly cloudy. Cool. A mixture of sun and clouds. Chilly. Light icy mix late. Decreasing cloudiness. Chilly. Icy mix. Scattered clouds. Cool. High temperature: 50 °F 46 °F 53 °F 45 °F 39 °F 40 °F 40 °F Low temperature: 33 °F 33 °F 43 °F 31 °F 28 °F 30 °F 29 °F Comfort level: 44 °F 41 °F 50 °F 30 °F 29 °F 34 °F 32 °F Wind Speed: 10 mph 7 mph 7 mph 16 mph 14 mph 7 mph 10 mph Wind Direction: Humidity: 47% 68% 67% 41% 38% 49% 56% UV Index: 0 (Low) 0 (Low) 0 (Low) 0 (Low) 0 (Low) 0 (Low) 0 (Low) Chance of Rain: 3% 73% 91% 57% 16% 33% 80% Amount Rain: - 0.51" 0.51" 0.10" - 0.08" 1.00" Sunrise: 7:27 AM 7:27 AM 7:26 AM 7:26 AM 7:26 AM 7:25 AM 7:25 AM Sunset: 5:05 PM 5:06 PM 5:07 PM 5:08 PM 5:09 PM 5:10 PM 5:11 PM Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19 Jan 20 Jan 21 Jan 22 Jan 23 Jan 24 Weather: Description: Flurries early. Partly cloudy. Chilly. More sun than clouds. Chilly. Mostly cloudy. Cold. Sprinkles late. Mostly cloudy. Chilly. More clouds than sun. Cool. Rain changing to snow. Mostly cloudy. Cool. Snow early. Mostly cloudy. Chilly. Mostly sunny. Cold. High temperature: 41 °F 38 °F 30 °F 37 °F 46 °F 46 °F 34 °F 14 °F Low temperature: 27 °F 23 °F 16 °F 17 °F 32 °F 29 °F 2 °F -1 °F Comfort level: 33 °F 28 °F 25 °F 30 °F 41 °F 38 °F 20 °F -4 °F Wind Speed: 14 mph 21 mph 5 mph 10 mph 12 mph 24 mph 27 mph 21 mph Wind Direction: Humidity: 78% 68% 73% 80% 85% 82% 79% 78% UV Index: 0 (Low) 0 (Low) 0 (Low) 0 (Low) 0 (Low) 0 (Low) 0 (Low) 0 (Low) Chance of Rain/Snow: 15% 10% 33% 26% 21% 94% 68% 10% Amount Rain: 0.05" - - 0.06" - 0.62" 0.34" - Amount Snow: 0.48" - - 0.69" - 5.40" 10.18" - Sunrise: 7:25 AM 7:24 AM 7:24 AM 7:23 AM 7:23 AM 7:22 AM 7:22 AM 7:21 AM Sunset: 5:12 PM 5:13 PM 5:14 PM 5:15 PM 5:16 PM 5:17 PM 5:19 PM Weather provided by CustomWeather, copyright 2011 http://www.timeanddate.com/weather/usa/washington-dc/ext Funny or just crazy, calling for 15in+ of snow in a 2 day event on Sunday January 22-23. I laugh when I see this 2 week already putting that amount even out. This is not even a replicable weather center, but I am wondering who is smoking the crack for this far out. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 the mtns could definitely see some snow. the euro was not that snowy a look tho even there. you are probably more confident than i am the primary dies out fast enough for the secondary to help you a lot of help but i think it's known im a cynic... maybe the tide has turned. if we ever have a true snow season we're in it now. Nah, I'm no where near confident. I just really like the surprise, unlikely event chances. Like the snow we had here in Winchester last week, like the one you guys had to day, which, from what I could see on traffic cams, was a nice pretty snow in some areas. Just yesterday, I was watching the event for today, and then having to look a long way out in time to see another chance. I find it to be a lot of fun when one turns from an absolute impossibility to even a small chance in such a short period of model runs. Even if it doesn't work out 98% of the time, that 2% sure is lot of fun. In fact, I think I enjoy these types more than the locked in big ones. I'm always afraid of the huge disappointment with those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 New 00z GFS has just initialized. Can we make this event number 2 this week Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 00z NAM has a HUGE ridge out in the Pacific Ocean just west of the West Coast at 84 hrs FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 00z NAM has a HUGE ridge out in the Pacific Ocean just west of the West Coast at 84 hrs FWIW So like, a ridge in that ocean on the left side of the map is like, good and stuff right? I have no maps, and nothing useful to offer any of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillzPirate Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Hey guys, just wanted to take time before the 0z GFS to say hello and tell you I've recently relocated to Georgetown from NC. I'm back and forth moving stuff so I'll most likely be in which ever location will provide me any snow in the upcoming threat. I'm gonna be joining in over here from the SE forum. I was a member on eastern for 4 years so I recognize most of you. Anyway, heres to a great latter half of winter going forward. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 New 00z GFS has just initialized. Can we make this event number 2 this week Wednesday? 10.4 in MAF and counting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 10.4 in MAF and counting... Show off! GFS is considerably warmer....meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 10.4 in MAF and counting... im loving the tx moisture. hopefully the southern plains keeps getting wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 -10c 850s sweeping in on Friday Large cutoff h5 low at 96 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 im loving the tx moisture. hopefully the southern plains keeps getting wet. You sound like every severe wx buff I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 120 on h5 looks interesting... good s/w near the GOM and nothing came of it Nothing through 150... so the 18z fantasy storm went away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 120 on h5 looks interesting... good s/w near the GOM and nothing came of it Nothing through 150... so the 18z fantasy storm went away You have a piece of HP sitting over the ull-- hence, nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 The GFS lost the storm entirely. It didn't go OTS or anything. It just disappeared. Gone without a trace. Back to moping for the weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 120 on h5 looks interesting... good s/w near the GOM and nothing came of it Nothing through 150... so the 18z fantasy storm went away Alot of energy digging down this weekend and not a bad setup. Something to watch, wouldn't take much of a change to get another surprise event as we get closer in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The GFS lost the storm entirely. It didn't go OTS or anything. It just disappeared. Gone without a trace. Back to moping for the weenies. when the gfs is the only one showing it and the euro has nothing it's sorta hard to buy usually.. maybe today's snow made people too excited. there is still potential there but i doubt it will be easy even if things are more favorable generally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 You sound like every severe wx buff I know. i need this to be my year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Alot of energy digging down this weekend and not a bad setup. Something to watch, wouldn't take much of a change to get another surprise event as we get closer in. flow is so fast there is always another strong s/w on the heels. there is no room for it to amplify. when/if the southern s/w finally ejects it seems there will be some threat. the gfs is still doing it now more on target with the euro. we'll need a good deal of extra luck prior to that it would seem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 Leave it to the GFS.....delayed, but not denied. Had something brewing at 180-192. Then resolution dropped and the whole thing crapped out. It's all about the energy in the southwest ----if and when it marches east. After that "threat" (7-10 days from now), it probably will turn milder here for a week or so. February looks to be the interesting month here. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 10, 2012 Author Share Posted January 10, 2012 when the gfs is the only one showing it and the euro has nothing it's sorta hard to buy usually.. maybe today's snow made people too excited. there is still potential there but i doubt it will be easy even if things are more favorable generally. I think people are rushing the transition. I think by near the end of the month a legit threat will emerge. There will be a few false alarms before then and perhaps a SNE blizzard or three. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 seems like gfs wants to alternate between a storm next sunday and a storm next tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 man..just saw the NAM..its pretty close for some snow in Leesburg... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 I think people are rushing the transition. I think by near the end of the month a legit threat will emerge. There will be a few false alarms before then and perhaps a SNE blizzard or three. possibly. tho we probably want more stuff like today just hopefully wetter and norther (for you) if we're being realistic. i guess i still don't believe "the change" will work wonders for us. we should just try to cash in on climo as much as possible--now's the time to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 The thing that has had and continues to have my attention over the next week or so is the weak 500mb high anomaly that moves from western Canada toward the Hudson Bay this weekend. While this isn't your conventional block (usually a retrograding -NAO anomaly to the Hudson Bay), it will arrive to a similar point to the more conventional styled anomalies. It is at least a mild form of a teleconnection that at least gives the next week a fighting chance for something to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 10, 2012 Share Posted January 10, 2012 6Z NAM now showing the anafrontal snows the GFS has been advertising to one extent or another 1" maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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