Wonderdog Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 euro is still the better model and you gotta go with consensus if nothing else. even at fantasy range. as far as i know the gfs is pretty much on its own besides hunches and gut feelings. I don't know about this year. To me, the EURO has been very inconsistent past day five. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 euro has precip for 95% of the country for the end of the run...guess which part it dosent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 euro has precip for 95% of the country for the end of the run...guess which part it dosent? we haven't missed out on qpf this year, so I wouldn't buy that solution it's gonna be all about temps, which are obviously dependent on feature locations (Highs and SLP) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Let's see if the big momma is still showing up on the 18z GFS, I'm getting a legit feeling from this one. Feels like light years since the previous Miller A/Gulf Low, I consider Feb 2010 a hybrid system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Looks like the GFS went to euroland with the cutoff feature at H5, dayum. It's way out there, west of the Baja peninsula @ 120, that's crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Looks like the GFS went to euroland with the cutoff feature at H5, dayum. It's way out there, west of the Baja peninsula @ 120, that's crazy. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_18z/avnloop.html It still looks like something brewing down in the Gulf of Mexico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm liking through 141hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I'm liking through 141hrs Agreed. Colder run this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 leaves the closed low behind and still has a snowstorm hmm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Very nice at 150 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 leaves the closed low behind and still has a snowstorm hmm. I'm trying to think of a weenie phrase to counter this but i've got nothin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Eh... scoots off at 156... but at least its something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Nice looking coastal storm on the 16th per the 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Eh... scoots off at 156... but at least its something Wonder how many SE weenies will be holding on to this run LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Not going out on limb with it only being 5 and 1/2 days out, but it's goin to snow for the ravens game. Just need a little blocking to make it interesting. Got to keep the southern stream moving so I'm good with letting this evening's overperrformer go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wonder how many SE weenies will be holding on to this run LOL At least its 6 days away... and not 9 or 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 According to Adam (am19psu) the new Euro Weeklies are a complete torch for us. The only time it is not warm is days 8-14 when it is average temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 At least its 6 days away... and not 9 or 10 days True, and so that makes it a little more realistic, but until we get D3 or so my hopes are limited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 According to Adam (am19psu) the new Euro Weeklies are a complete torch for us. The only time it is not warm is days 8-14 when it is average temps. If I am not too mistaken these havent performed that stellar so far....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 According to Adam (am19psu) the new Euro Weeklies are a complete torch for us. The only time it is not warm is days 8-14 when it is average temps. When did they come out? I thought they came out later in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 When did they come out? I thought they came out later in the week. Back in the late fall/early winter, they started coming out Mondays and Thursdays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 According to Adam (am19psu) the new Euro Weeklies are a complete torch for us. The only time it is not warm is days 8-14 when it is average temps. I suppose our favorite facebook eurobot will be updating his page status to say "Aleet! Aleet! Major pattern change on the way. I hope you enjoyed monday's event because the big dog torch is on it's way." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 When did they come out? I thought they came out later in the week. This is what he posted to me in the Philly thread: I'm going to move these posts to medium-long range thread, since this is more a humor thread. I don't have the MJO forecasts from it yet, only H5, T85, and 2m temps, but they are all showing a blowtorch. The MJO forecasts usually don't update until tomorrow morning on the NCEP site. If I had to guess, though, I'd bet the MJO is in P5/P6 in Week 3. Are they generally very accurate?. Very accurate? I don't know what your measure is. Do they, on average, beat climatology? Yes. Is their output written in stone? Of course not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Back in the late fall/early winter, they started coming out Mondays and Thursdays. Oh that makes sense i thought they only came out on Thursday's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 gotta love the oddly familiar GFS 384 hr. panel on the 18Z run that just happens to be for 12Z on 1/25/12....mwahahaha! http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I suppose our favorite facebook eurobot will be updating his page status to say "Aleet! Aleet! Major pattern change on the way. I hope you enjoyed monday's event because the big dog torch is on it's way." If he believes the weeklies we will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 If he believes the weeklies we will. I thought dt was a cyborg that ran on euro AI? He doesn't have to believe the euro.....he is the euro. Maybe I watch too much tv. Honestly, we need to hope they are very very wrong. If our winter continues to suck for another 4 weeks straight then we are in big trouble. Once we hit mid Feb, then end comes really quickly around these parts. I think we are currently in and will continue to be in a very difficult pattern for LR models to have much if any accuracy. The easy to forecast and stable craptastic pattern that lasted pretty much for 6 weeks straight appears to be behind us. Today is a good example of things sneaking up on us. My guess would be a continuation of the same for the foreseeable future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I thought dt was a cyborg that ran on euro AI? He doesn't have to believe the euro.....he is the euro. Maybe I watch too much tv. Honestly, we need to hope they are very very wrong. If our winter continues to suck for another 4 weeks straight then we are in big trouble. Once we hit mid Feb, then end comes really quickly around these parts. I think we are currently in and will continue to be in a very difficult pattern for LR models to have much if any accuracy. The easy to forecast and stable craptastic pattern that lasted pretty much for 6 weeks straight appears to be behind us. Today is a good example of things sneaking up on us. My guess would be a continuation of the same for the foreseeable future. I sure as hell hope you are right, as long as the Ravens win the Super Bowl i am one of the few people here who could handle an almost snowless winter. Family first, Ravens second and snow is third in my list of most important things in life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bjohnson102184 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I sure as hell hope you are right, as long as the Ravens win the Super Bowl i am one of the few people here who could handle an almost snowless winter. Family first, Ravens second and snow is third in my list of most important things in life. WHOA.....Blizzard in July has better chances of verifying LOL just poking with ya.......tough game this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 If I am not too mistaken these havent performed that stellar so far....... i think they have been warm all winter. sounds like they are doing pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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