WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I guess nobody has any thoughts on the fact that 12z runs of the GFS, GFS ens, and EC are now colder for Wed night/Thurs morning and show snow across portions of northern va and parts of md? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I guess nobody has any thoughts on the fact that 12z runs of the GFS, GFS ens, and EC are now colder for Wed night/Thurs morning and show snow across portions of northern va and parts of md? Keeping tabs on it, but not big on the priority list at the moment. Feel free to discuss it if you want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I guess nobody has any thoughts on the fact that 12z runs of the GFS, GFS ens, and EC are now colder for Wed night/Thurs morning and show snow across portions of northern va and parts of md? kind of a reach on the new euro.. especially with another low to the west edit: dont see it on the 12z gfs either.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 euro looks to skunk us.. kinda screwy toward the end tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I guess nobody has any thoughts on the fact that 12z runs of the GFS, GFS ens, and EC are now colder for Wed night/Thurs morning and show snow across portions of northern va and parts of md? It doesn't look that close for us. If there is a big shift I'm sure people will be all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I could see some snow in the mountains with the midweek storm now. Going to take a lot more for the rest of us still I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 nice precip hole over the region at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I guess nobody has any thoughts on the fact that 12z runs of the GFS, GFS ens, and EC are now colder for Wed night/Thurs morning and show snow across portions of northern va and parts of md? You seem to be upset the last 24 hours when people don't discuss what you see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Wed night stands little chance imo. There is nothing to really drive 850's below freezing and surface is way warm. On the euro, the lp over MI kills all chances. Even if that feature vanished I still don't see how we get any snow anywhere near the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Whoa...what happens on the Euro Day 8-9? Looks like it should be pretty good for us based on the low position at Day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 You seem to be upset the last 24 hours when people don't discuss what you see Not at all. It was a sarcastic post. I think the mid week event is a "possibility" is all. They were teasing me about being overly optimistic. I'm just having a little fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Whoa...what happens on the Euro Day 8-9? Looks like it should be pretty good for us based on the low position at Day 9. it kinda miller b's us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 it kinda miller b's us Hops to the coast and we get...zero...precip? It's not the same storm as the GFS, but we've got some ducks on the pond now in both models with an expected favorable...well, non-hostile pattern. Better than it's been this winter so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jviper Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I like these. Please! http://wxmaps.org/pix/dcagfs.png http://wxmaps.org/pix/dcagfsb.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Starting to look interesting at the half way mark or so of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 too bad the gfs is almost certainly wrong Lol... The Euro has been rock solid consistent in the medium range this winter. NOT MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 the JMA comes out soon..if it ejects the s/w low..euro forecast in big trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 the JMA comes out soon..if it ejects the s/w low..euro forecast in big trouble. did the Euro show any snow days 7-10 for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 did the Euro show any snow days 7-10 for us? As I understand it, it put the ingredients close by on day 9, but then Miller B'd a storm around us. Close, but no cigar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 As I understand it, it put the ingredients close by on day 9, but then Miller B'd a storm around us. Close, but no cigar. D'oh! the spirit of last year lives on (at least on the model) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Lol... The Euro has been rock solid consistent in the medium range this winter. NOT MDstorm weenie rationale. the gfs is almost certainly wrong with its 180+ hour forecast... as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 D'oh! the spirit of last year lives on (at least on the model) Yeah. Hate to get into a semi-decent pattern only to have that northern stream start crushing the southern stream again (aka winter of 2011) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 weenie rationale. the gfs is almost certainly wrong with its 180+ hour forecast... as usual. well, they're both wrong, but which one has the main players right GFS hasn't done bad in the 7 day range vs. Euro when it comes to showing a storm or not for us, say what you want I guess JI is right; we'll just have to let the JMA settle the issue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 weenie rationale. the gfs is almost certainly wrong with its 180+ hour forecast... as usual. In fairness, maybe he/she was saying, it's almost certainly wrong in the 10-day prog, and its really going be be in the 60s with a light summer breeze instead... (joking) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 JMA no storm..gfs sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 well, they're both wrong, but which one has the main players right GFS hasn't done bad in the 7 day range vs. Euro when it comes to showing a storm or not for us, say what you want I guess JI is right; we'll just have to let the JMA settle the issue euro is still the better model and you gotta go with consensus if nothing else. even at fantasy range. as far as i know the gfs is pretty much on its own besides hunches and gut feelings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 FWIW...a few GFS ensemble members had a storm at a similar time near 180hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 euro is still the better model and you gotta go with consensus if nothing else. even at fantasy range. as far as i know the gfs is pretty much on its own besides hunches and gut feelings. we're just about in the DGEX's wheelhouse never say never Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 FWIW...a few GFS ensemble members had a storm at a similar time near 180hrs. They are all over the place. I was looking at them to get insight about which solution to buy in the long run as the gfs and euro late in the 168-240 hr means are really different with major differences in what they would imply but the members seem to be split pretty evenly on which idea is more correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 the JMA comes out soon..if it ejects the s/w low..euro forecast in big trouble. Don't worry. The JMA always ejects the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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