Ian Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 that is a dream scenario very, very nice storm i guess even our fantasy storms have been downgraded if that's a dream scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 no thanks, I'll take the GFS verbatum this run and call it a season Eh...GFS probably spits out 10" of snow for us through the run. I still want 25"+. 10" would be a great start, however. Nice to see some storm potential in the time frames that many people have been keying on based on pattern development. The pessimist in me (or Ian's influence, hard to say which ) would say the GFS has really been waffling on cold vs. mild runs lately so hard to give it much of any credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Eh...GFS probably spits out 10" of snow for us through the run. I still want 25"+. 10" would be a great start, however. Nice to see some storm potential in the time frames that many people have been keying on based on pattern development. The pessimist in me (or Ian's influence, hard to say which ) would say the GFS has really been waffling on cold vs. mild runs lately so hard to give it much of any credence. time for dr no to get its rep back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I see this as our first real good shot where not everything needs to be just 100% right for it to come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I have been begging for something, anything, to track. Perhaps this can hang around for a few runs as a possibility. How is that for lowered expectations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 I see this as our first real good shot where not everything needs to be just 100% right for it to come together. how much support is there? would be nice to have more than just the gfs to feel "real good" about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 how much support is there? would be nice to have more than just the gfs to feel "real good" about it. Not much granted but at least the pattern has improved a bit and we haven't had the DT/JB kiss of death yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 time for dr no to get its rep back. Dr. No has been Dr. Hellz Yes in the Day 7-10 timeframe this year. how much support is there? would be nice to have more than just the gfs to feel "real good" about it. No modeled support, but the pattern development makes it more legitimate than otherwise, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Eh...GFS probably spits out 10" of snow for us through the run. I still want 25"+. 10" would be a great start, however. Nice to see some storm potential in the time frames that many people have been keying on based on pattern development. The pessimist in me (or Ian's influence, hard to say which ) would say the GFS has really been waffling on cold vs. mild runs lately so hard to give it much of any credence. Bonanza! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 ^^^^ what is the time period for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 There have been alot of hints at a decent high lat setup for over a week now. Looking at the ao/nao ens forecasts show little consensus past 5 days or so. I think this is how we all expected the previous wretched pattern to evolve into something....well....less wretched. The gfs has been hinting at some sort of -nao mid month for a while. I think the euro has started showing a bit of that as well? We're running out of pattern change chase time so I'm all in for some accum snow during the last 1/2 of jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 the 12th of Never. Thanks, dear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 dt is a toolbag Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 ^^^^ what is the time period for that? Full 12z GFS run out to 384. So, meaningless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 DT all in for what the "1z" [sic] GFS shows. except for when he backtracks in the comments. I WANT TO GET YOU ALL HYPED UP but then tell you to not get all hyped up in the comments. Snooze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 dt is a toolbag As an owner of a few toolbags, i'm offended by your comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 severe cold on GFS on Jan 24...highs in the single digit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Bonanza! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 severe cold on GFS on Jan 24...highs in the single digit? Model verbatim it is 12/-4 on the 24th at DCA (similar at IAD) with snowcover. Love the -24 850s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 doesnt look like the euro is going to have the gfs storm.. has high pressure where the gom low is on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 doesnt look like the euro is going to have the gfs storm.. has high pressure where the gom low is on the gfs Nope, 500 low is off the CA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Nope, 500 low is off the CA coast. GFS vs Euro... this is nothing new.. perhaps the SW bias in play? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 Nope, 500 low is off the CA coast. who will be the first to say the euro likes to hang energy back too much? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 hmm yoda beat me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 hmm yoda beat me I used weenie statement #125 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 euro typical s/w bias...GFS has been better with storms than euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 hmm yoda beat me LOL. Nice timing. Wonder if the next wave up by Juneau on the 120 will grab it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 euro typical s/w bias...GFS has been better with storms than euro too bad the gfs is almost certainly wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 LOL. Nice timing. Wonder if the next wave up by Juneau on the 120 will grab it. it's holding up together better than last run at least thru 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 9, 2012 Share Posted January 9, 2012 maybe something getting going arounf 180-186 (17th) in TX area.. we're borderline but on cold side of boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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